The League of 4

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Hopeful
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Re: The League of 4

by Hopeful » 14 Feb 2019 13:14

Stranded
The Prisoner Looking at the trends of form over the last 10 games Ipswich are averaging 0.5 points per game, then Rotherham on 0.6, Bolton 0.8, Wigan 0.9, us 1 point per game and then Millwall 1.2. These figures are unlikely to fluctuate considerably between now and the end of the season.

Transposing those form returns to the remaining games is a good a place to start as any. That would leave the table as follows:

Millwall 49 points
Wigan 47
Reading 45
-----------------------------
Bolton 37
Rotherham 36
Ipswich 26



Interesting post - I tend to look at games this year as given our change of manager and style, that gives a better picture of what teams are doing now - a slightly smaller sample so more open to error but extrapolating 2019 form - you get a final table that looks like:

Wigan 50
Reading 47
Millwall 46
----------------
Rotherham 40
Bolton 34
Ipswich 27


Agreed, plus this would include the Jan transfer window, where squads were, in theory, improved, but possibly with less impact than ourselves who arguably had one of the better market activities than others.

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Re: The League of 4

by Stranded » 14 Feb 2019 16:16

Quick look at the strength of run in for all 4 teams and not much difference Bolton do have clearly the easiest run of home games, Rotherham the hardest home games.

Interesting fact* is that both Rotherham and us play WBA, Brum and Boro in our last 3 games in reverse - we have WBA at H and the other two A. Rotherham only travel to WBA.

Strength of run in (average league position to 2 dp):

1. Bolton Overall 12.36 ------ Home 13.29 Away 11.43
2. Ipswich Overall 11.57 ------Home 11.42 Away 11.71
3. Reading Overall 10.71 ------Home 11.71 Away 9,71
4, Rotherham Overall 10.57 ------Home 9.29 Away 11.86

So pretty even run ins really.

Also looking at games against the current bottom 6 (so Wigan down), which will have the most impact on the table - this shows the following games left:

1. Bolton 3 (2 at Home)
2. Ipswich and Reading 3 (2 Away)
4. Rotherham 1 (Away)

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Re: The League of 4

by Nameless » 14 Feb 2019 16:57

Those relative run ins could look very different if you could factor in the form of the teams rather than league position. A team in 7th on a poor run and dropping would be easier than a team in 8th and on a great run for a playoff spot.
But of course you could analyse these things for ever and still only be sure after 46 games...

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Re: The League of 4

by Stranded » 15 Feb 2019 08:59

Nameless Those relative run ins could look very different if you could factor in the form of the teams rather than league position. A team in 7th on a poor run and dropping would be easier than a team in 8th and on a great run for a playoff spot.
But of course you could analyse these things for ever and still only be sure after 46 games...


No point doing the full fixture list as form will change but looking at the next six games for all 4 and we have a great chance to pull ourselves clear as we are playing some woefully out of form teams - Ipswich, Stoke and Rotherham are 21st, 22nd and 23rd in current form (6 games).

Average form position of opponents over the next 6 games, "best" run first is as follows (own form in brackets):

1. Reading (8th) - 15th
2. Ipswich (21st) - 12th
3. Bolton (20th) - 11th
4. Rotherham (23rd) - 10th

Also noticeable from the above that we have seen a massive up tick in performance over the past 6 games whilst our nearest rivals have stayed consistantly poor.

Looking at form over 6, 8, 10 & 12 games also shows how we are improving in comparison to our rivals:

Reading

12 games: 20th 10 games: 19th 8 games: 15th 6 Games: 8th

Rotherham

12 games: 22nd 10 games: 23rd 8 games: 20th 6 Games: 23rd

Bolton

12 games: 23rd 10 games: 22nd 8 games: 23rd 6 Games: 20th

Ipswich

12 games: 24th 10 games: 24th 8 games: 24th 6 Games: 21st

So a consistant steady rise in form for us (and a big jump between 6 and 8 games - whilst all our immediate rivals hover around relegation consistantly.

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Re: The League of 4

by Nameless » 15 Feb 2019 14:44

Stranded
Nameless Those relative run ins could look very different if you could factor in the form of the teams rather than league position. A team in 7th on a poor run and dropping would be easier than a team in 8th and on a great run for a playoff spot.
But of course you could analyse these things for ever and still only be sure after 46 games...


No point doing the full fixture list as form will change but looking at the next six games for all 4 and we have a great chance to pull ourselves clear as we are playing some woefully out of form teams - Ipswich, Stoke and Rotherham are 21st, 22nd and 23rd in current form (6 games).

Average form position of opponents over the next 6 games, "best" run first is as follows (own form in brackets):

1. Reading (8th) - 15th
2. Ipswich (21st) - 12th
3. Bolton (20th) - 11th
4. Rotherham (23rd) - 10th

Also noticeable from the above that we have seen a massive up tick in performance over the past 6 games whilst our nearest rivals have stayed consistantly poor.

Looking at form over 6, 8, 10 & 12 games also shows how we are improving in comparison to our rivals:

Reading

12 games: 20th 10 games: 19th 8 games: 15th 6 Games: 8th

Rotherham

12 games: 22nd 10 games: 23rd 8 games: 20th 6 Games: 23rd

Bolton

12 games: 23rd 10 games: 22nd 8 games: 23rd 6 Games: 20th

Ipswich

12 games: 24th 10 games: 24th 8 games: 24th 6 Games: 21st

So a consistant steady rise in form for us (and a big jump between 6 and 8 games - whilst all our immediate rivals hover around relegation consistantly.



That confirms it - we’re doomed !


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Re: The League of 4

by Snowflake Royal » 15 Feb 2019 16:57

Good form stating stranded!

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Lower West
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Re: The League of 4

by Lower West » 16 Feb 2019 14:58

Rotherham currently beating Sheff Weds. :shock:

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Re: The League of 4

by windermereROYAL » 16 Feb 2019 15:01

All the makings of a massive game next week now, they`ve had 14 shots in the 2nd half. with 10 to go...

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Re: The League of 4

by Lower West » 16 Feb 2019 15:15

Not just next week. Ipswich and Wigan to follow after. These three games could be season defining. 9 critical points.


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Re: The League of 4

by Zip » 16 Feb 2019 15:20

2-2 HUGE

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Re: The League of 4

by TommyF » 16 Feb 2019 15:23

10th minute of injury time! I actually feel sorry for the Rotherham fans.

I hope the ref enjoys the drive back to Earley or wherever near Reading he must live

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Re: The League of 4

by windermereROYAL » 16 Feb 2019 15:25

TommyF 10th minute of injury time! I actually feel sorry for the Rotherham fans.

I hope the ref enjoys the drive back to Earley or wherever near Reading he must live


Sod off, are you for real?

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Lower West
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Re: The League of 4

by Lower West » 16 Feb 2019 15:26

Over 10. Forestieri was sent off in 11th minute of injury time


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Re: The League of 4

by Snowflake Royal » 16 Feb 2019 15:28

windermereROYAL
TommyF 10th minute of injury time! I actually feel sorry for the Rotherham fans.

I hope the ref enjoys the drive back to Earley or wherever near Reading he must live


Sod off, are you for real?

I certainly feel sorry for any struggling decent side that concede a 10th minute goal to drop points. Absolutely gutting. Poor bastards.

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Re: The League of 4

by windermereROYAL » 16 Feb 2019 15:29

Snowflake Royal
windermereROYAL
TommyF 10th minute of injury time! I actually feel sorry for the Rotherham fans.

I hope the ref enjoys the drive back to Earley or wherever near Reading he must live


Sod off, are you for real?

I certainly feel sorry for any struggling decent side that concede a 10th minute goal to drop points. Absolutely gutting. Poor bastards.


:D :D :D

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Re: The League of 4

by windermereROYAL » 16 Feb 2019 15:32

Bolton losing

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Re: The League of 4

by windermereROYAL » 16 Feb 2019 15:50

Bolton 2-0 down

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Lower West
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Re: The League of 4

by Lower West » 16 Feb 2019 16:06

windermereROYAL Bolton 2-0 down


Now 3.

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Re: The League of 4

by windermereROYAL » 16 Feb 2019 16:10

And Ipswich losing, not such a bad day after all.

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Re: The League of 4

by Sutekh » 16 Feb 2019 16:42

How are Reading doing?

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