The Magic Number Thread

[From Despair To Where?]

I'm keeping an open mind until Paul has had his input.

[Snowflake Royal]

15: Exeter - 66
16: Cambridge - 63
17: Charlton - 62
18: Shrewsbury - 61
19: Reading - 60 (58)
20: Cheltenham - 59
......................................
21: Port Vale - 57
22: Burton - 55
23: Fleetwood - 49
24: Carlisle - 42

Magic number is 13 (15) - with 15 left to play for.

[Stranded]

15: Exeter - 66
16: Cambridge - 63
17: Charlton - 62
18: Shrewsbury - 61
19: Reading - 60 (58)
20: Cheltenham - 59
......................................
21: Port Vale - 57
22: Burton - 55
23: Fleetwood - 49
24: Carlisle - 42

Magic number is 13 (15) - with 15 left to play for.

We officially can no longer finish bottom - which is nice (even with a deduction, which we should avoid now with the Redwood loan).

[Sutekh]

Just let us know when

[Snowflake Royal]

Unfortunately, Cheltenham play their games in hand on 16 and 23 April, against Burton and Posh.

And we've got a little run of tougher games coming up.

So I'm more than half expecting this to go to the last couple of games.

Decent chance Cheltenham win that first game in hand. Although if Burton lose to Cheltenham and us on 16 and 20 April, that should be them done instead. But if Cheltenham win and we lose, that could be pretty squeeky bum time.

Hopefully we can pick up 2 to 4 points in our next three.

[Sutekh]

Unfortunately, Cheltenham play their games in hand on 16 and 23 April, against Burton and Posh.

And we've got a little run of tougher games coming up.

So I'm more than half expecting this to go to the last couple of games.

Decent chance Cheltenham win that first game in hand. Although if Burton lose to Cheltenham and us on 16 and 20 April, that should be them done instead. But if Cheltenham win and we lose, that could be pretty squeeky bum time.

Hopefully we can pick up 2 to 4 points in our next three.

Getting caught by one side (or even 2) won't matter. Reading need to be overhauled by 3 of the weakest sides in the division, personally I can't see that happening (unless aided by Dai).

[WestYorksRoyal]

Unfortunately, Cheltenham play their games in hand on 16 and 23 April, against Burton and Posh.

And we've got a little run of tougher games coming up.

So I'm more than half expecting this to go to the last couple of games.

Decent chance Cheltenham win that first game in hand. Although if Burton lose to Cheltenham and us on 16 and 20 April, that should be them done instead. But if Cheltenham win and we lose, that could be pretty squeeky bum time.

Hopefully we can pick up 2 to 4 points in our next three.

Getting caught by one side (or even 2) won't matter. Reading need to be overhauled by 3 of the weakest sides in the division, personally I can't see that happening (unless aided by Dai).

Cambridge are behind us on GD with a game in hand having just won 2 on the bounce. We'll need to pick up a fair few to stay ahead of them. It's Burton, Cheltenham and Vale that matter.

Personally I think if we lost all our remaining games except picking up a draw at Burton, we'd be 50/50 to survive. And I expect us to do better than that. You always get nervous with your own team, but we must be 90% of the way there. Any neutral looking in would see the 5 point gap between Cambridge and Burton and say it's 4 from the bottom 5.

I'm reminded of 07/08 where after we beat Birmingham it looked like we were there, and we blew it. Plus last season where we were 13 points clear at one stage (pre points deductions). But what makes me feel better this is that we'd need 2 teams to go on an unexpected run. Fair play to Fulham in 08 and Huddersfield last year, but even if one team does it this time that's not enough.

[Mr Angry]

I fundamentally agree that we are 90% of the way there, and I think another 5 or 6 points (however earned) will be enough for us to stay up (notwithstanding any additional points deductions that we may end up getting between now and the end of the season of course!)

[Stranded]

Yeah 90% sounds about right - I am going to assume no more points off now as wages must have been paid and with the loan payments for April should be made on time.

Looking at form over past 6 for us down then you get the following:

1. Reading 9 pts
2. Port Vale 7 pts
3. Cambridge 7pts
4. Fleetwood 6pts
5. Cheltenham 5pts
6. Carlisle 4pts
7. Burton 1pt

So over the last 6 games we have bettered our positon over all the sides below by at least 2 pts and only Vale and Cambridge are doing better than 1pt per game. For us to go down now, we would need to finish with a run like Burton whilst at least 3 sides improve their records.

If each side were to now turn into play-off contenders so 1.6 PPG then they would get to the follow totals:

Cambridge 54
Cheltenham 50
Port Vale 49
Burton 48
Fleetwood 42
Carlisle 35

So 1pt per game would be enough but given there are games between that group, it is likely that a win at Burton would do it even if we lose the next 3.

[WestYorksRoyal]

I think the nervousness is that it's a run of 4 tough games except Bristol Rovers. We lost the first, we may well lose the second, then fail to beat Bristol Rovers (no away win is easy) and you're looking at a very tight final few games starting with Barnsley. You can see the route to relegation.

On the other hand, get 4 points from Lincoln and Bristol Rovers and we're basically there. The way this team and this league is means no combination of outcomes would surprise me.

[Royal Ginger]

We’ll probably do just enough to stay up and then have our suspended points deduction triggered with a celebratory pitch invasion thus relegating us.

[Snowflake Royal]

Yeah 90% sounds about right - I am going to assume no more points off now as wages must have been paid and with the loan payments for April should be made on time.

Looking at form over past 6 for us down then you get the following:

1. Reading 9 pts
2. Port Vale 7 pts
3. Cambridge 7pts
4. Fleetwood 6pts
5. Cheltenham 5pts
6. Carlisle 4pts
7. Burton 1pt

So over the last 6 games we have bettered our positon over all the sides below by at least 2 pts and only Vale and Cambridge are doing better than 1pt per game. For us to go down now, we would need to finish with a run like Burton whilst at least 3 sides improve their records.

If each side were to now turn into play-off contenders so 1.6 PPG then they would get to the follow totals:

Cambridge 54
Cheltenham 50
Port Vale 49
Burton 48
Fleetwood 42
Carlisle 35

So 1pt per game would be enough but given there are games between that group, it is likely that a win at Burton would do it even if we lose the next 3.

Thing is with so few games left, ppg isn't very telling over such short periods.

It's not that long ago Cheltenham picked up 10 points in 4 games. Burton did 8 in 5 a while back.

It's highly unlikely. We are virtually safe. But it is nervy and likely going to go closer to the wire than we'd like

[Mr Angry]

It already has got closer than we would like!!!!

[Crusader Royal]

There has been more than one season where we’ve pretty much certain x or y couldn’t happen and then it did…..
Freak results happen, freak runs happen. Every result could go the wrong way for us.
It’s not over until Josh Barrett sings…..

[Snowflake Royal]

There has been more than one season where we’ve pretty much certain x or y couldn’t happen and then it did…..
Freak results happen, freak runs happen. Every result could go the wrong way for us.
It’s not over until Josh Barrett sings…..

Yeah we looked near certain to stay up quite late on in both Coppell's second PL season, and last season. And iirc it took a spectacularly poor post Xmas for us to go down to L1 last time under Bulliurns.

[Winston Biscuit]

You only have to look at the bottom of League 2 to see how form can change very quickly when survival and jobs are on the line

[WestYorksRoyal]

There are also many examples where the teams at the bottom just keep losing true to form. See 2018, 2019 and 2022 where the key reason we survived was not our own efforts but the incompetence of others or points deductions. Didn't we stay up in 2018 with fewer points than we have now?

[Stranded]

There are also many examples where the teams at the bottom just keep losing true to form. See 2018, 2019 and 2022 where the key reason we survived was not our own efforts but the incompetence of others or points deductions. Didn't we stay up in 2018 with fewer points than we have now?

Yep, we somehow finished 20th with just 44 points - 4 teams were incredibly worse than us. We only won 10 games all season.

Even though our second half of the season read W3 D8 L12 Pts 17, we only dropped from 14th to 20th - we were never lower than that.

[Sutekh]

There are also many examples where the teams at the bottom just keep losing true to form. See 2018, 2019 and 2022 where the key reason we survived was not our own efforts but the incompetence of others or points deductions. Didn't we stay up in 2018 with fewer points than we have now?

17/18 Reading stayed up on 44 points and there were still 4 teams below (also were involved in the lowest attended Championship game that season (2750 at Burton, still some way above the 13 souls who officially turned up to watch Stockport v Leicester draw 0-0 in the second division in May 1921 though)).

In 21/22 Reading stayed up with just 41 points but only by virtue of our friends from Pride Park going into administration.

[andrew1957]

The 5 clubs at the bottom are currently all at 1 or less points per game and so unless their form turns up significantly most will finish on 46 points or less based on current form.

If we get one more win and provided there are no more points deductions, we finish on 48 and have a much better goal difference. I will be amazed if 2 of the 5 bottom teams manage to get 49 or more points at this stage. So one more win should be enough.