The Magic Number Thread

[Millsy]

I don't know about no magic number malarkey.

My method is to wait until the end of the season and see where we are in the table. Works every time.

[MartinRdg]

The problem is that unusual results this close to the end of the season can have a really negative (or positive) impact. All being well and we win on Saturday against Lincoln and other results go our way then we would be nine points above the dotted line which, with four games to go would be a great position to be in.

However, if we lost and Port Vale, Burton and Cheltenham win then we would be only four points above the dotted line which is really not a place I want us to be in. Of course, if one of those three lose, then we would still be, at least, five points above the dotted line if not still six points.

[Mr Angry]

We’ll probably do just enough to stay up and then have our suspended points deduction triggered with a celebratory pitch invasion thus relegating us.

If any single post sums up what it has been like to be a Reading supporter this season, this is it.

[Crusader Royal]

I don't know about no magic number malarkey.

My method is to wait until the end of the season and see where we are in the table. Works every time.

Not if points deductions come into play…..

[Stranded]

I don't know about no magic number malarkey.

My method is to wait until the end of the season and see where we are in the table. Works every time.

Not if points deductions come into play…..

Famous last words but they really shouldn't now - HMRC and wages appear to have been paid on time in March meaning the only remaining hurdle is the tax due on the 22nd April - the club were already confident they would have the funds to cover that and Redwood have loaned the club money to cover ongoing obligations during exclusivity - so unless fans get a game abandoned, we should be OK now.

[Crusader Royal]

I don't know about no magic number malarkey.

My method is to wait until the end of the season and see where we are in the table. Works every time.

Not if points deductions come into play…..

Famous last words but they really shouldn't now - HMRC and wages appear to have been paid on time in March meaning the only remaining hurdle is the tax due on the 22nd April - the club were already confident they would have the funds to cover that and Redwood have loaned the club money to cover ongoing obligations during exclusivity - so unless fans get a game abandoned, we should be OK now.

I wonder what the loan terms are ?
If Redwood discover significant issues and withdraw do they forfeit the loan ?

[Millsy]

I don't know about no magic number malarkey.

My method is to wait until the end of the season and see where we are in the table. Works every time.

Not if points deductions come into play…..

I'm not aware of deductions being applied retrospectively after the last game of the season. I hope I'm not wrong!

[The Royal Forester]

I don't know about no magic number malarkey.

My method is to wait until the end of the season and see where we are in the table. Works every time.

Not if points deductions come into play…..

I'm not aware of deductions being applied retrospectively after the last game of the season. I hope I'm not wrong!

I seem to remember Wigan having points deducted after the season ended or was it just before the last game? It was only a few seasons ago but can't think why it was. Could have been to do administration, I suppose.

[WestYorksRoyal]

What nobody knows is how important the magic number is. 2 months ago, 99% of the fan base would have snapped your hand off for L2 but a new owner in for next season. With the deal supposedly closer, how important is staying up? Is relegation merely bad or existential?

[From Despair To Where?]

Not if points deductions come into play…..

I'm not aware of deductions being applied retrospectively after the last game of the season. I hope I'm not wrong!

I seem to remember Wigan having points deducted after the season ended or was it just before the last game? It was only a few seasons ago but can't think why it was. Could have been to do administration, I suppose.

It was for administration. If imposed close to the end of the season, it's suspended until the end of the season. If the club finishes outside the bottom 3, it is imposed that season, if they finish in the bottom 3, it is carried over until the next season.

You can thank Leeds for that, who announced administration 10 minutes from the end of their last game when it was clear they were going down in the hope the deduction would be imposed that season. The EFL said no, carried 10 point deduction over to the following season and gave them an extra 12 just for being a bunch of cheating pcunts.

And you can thank Leicester for there being any points deductions at all for going into administration but that's another story about cheating.

[Snowflake Royal]

What nobody knows is how important the magic number is. 2 months ago, 99% of the fan base would have snapped your hand off for L2 but a new owner in for next season. With the deal supposedly closer, how important is staying up? Is relegation merely bad or existential?

Bad.

It means the owners have to cut more and lose more to start with. And it's longer and harder to get back to a level our facilities are appropriate for and possible to manage sustainably more than short term.

[Millsy]

I'm not aware of deductions being applied retrospectively after the last game of the season. I hope I'm not wrong!

I seem to remember Wigan having points deducted after the season ended or was it just before the last game? It was only a few seasons ago but can't think why it was. Could have been to do administration, I suppose.

It was for administration. If imposed close to the end of the season, it's suspended until the end of the season. If the club finishes outside the bottom 3, it is imposed that season, if they finish in the bottom 3, it is carried over until the next season.

You can thank Leeds for that, who announced administration 10 minutes from the end of their last game when it was clear they were going down in the hope the deduction would be imposed that season. The EFL said no, carried 10 point deduction over to the following season and gave them an extra 12 just for being a bunch of cheating pcunts.

And you can thank Leicester for there being any points deductions at all for going into administration but that's another story about cheating.

Interesting thanks.

So if the season has ended, full time across all games for the division, it is technically possible then that a deduction can be slapped on to screw a club over?

[Mid Sussex Royal]

I seem to remember Wigan having points deducted after the season ended or was it just before the last game? It was only a few seasons ago but can't think why it was. Could have been to do administration, I suppose.

It was for administration. If imposed close to the end of the season, it's suspended until the end of the season. If the club finishes outside the bottom 3, it is imposed that season, if they finish in the bottom 3, it is carried over until the next season.

You can thank Leeds for that, who announced administration 10 minutes from the end of their last game when it was clear they were going down in the hope the deduction would be imposed that season. The EFL said no, carried 10 point deduction over to the following season and gave them an extra 12 just for being a bunch of cheating pcunts.

And you can thank Leicester for there being any points deductions at all for going into administration but that's another story about cheating.

Interesting thanks.

So if the season has ended, full time across all games for the division, it is technically possible then that a deduction can be slapped on to screw a club over?

Yes - if Everton are deducted points again they will almost certainly appeal which will run on after the season has ended.

And as has been said if for arguments sake a club just above us say like Exeter went into administration after the end of the season, but before the end of June, the EFL would deduct the 12 points this season if it relegated them.

[Mr Angry]

What nobody knows is how important the magic number is. 2 months ago, 99% of the fan base would have snapped your hand off for L2 but a new owner in for next season. With the deal supposedly closer, how important is staying up? Is relegation merely bad or existential?

Bad.

It means the owners have to cut more and lose more to start with. And it's longer and harder to get back to a level our facilities are appropriate for and possible to manage sustainably more than short term.

Definitely bad.

I would imagine that the new prospective owners will be offering a sum of money on the proviso that we are a L1 club next season, a sum that Dai considers meets his valuation.

Unless Dai has agreed a 2nd (almost certainly lower) price in the event we get relegated, if we do get relegated then the new prospective owners will be demanding a discount of the price agreed and then we are back to Dai agreeing to that reduction in the price - something I wouldn't want to stake the Club's future on.

So, IF we get relegated, I fear it would be existential for us.

[WestYorksRoyal]

What nobody knows is how important the magic number is. 2 months ago, 99% of the fan base would have snapped your hand off for L2 but a new owner in for next season. With the deal supposedly closer, how important is staying up? Is relegation merely bad or existential?

Bad.

It means the owners have to cut more and lose more to start with. And it's longer and harder to get back to a level our facilities are appropriate for and possible to manage sustainably more than short term.

Definitely bad.

I would imagine that the new prospective owners will be offering a sum of money on the proviso that we are a L1 club next season, a sum that Dai considers meets his valuation.

Unless Dai has agreed a 2nd (almost certainly lower) price in the event we get relegated, if we do get relegated then the new prospective owners will be demanding a discount of the price agreed and then we are back to Dai agreeing to that reduction in the price - something I wouldn't want to stake the Club's future on.

So, IF we get relegated, I fear it would be existential for us.

Which is why the EFL rules in this area are so dangerous and irresponsible. From 2017 - 2020 we broke FFP so fine, deduct points.

But deducting points when an owner loses interest, in an ecosystem where 95% of clubs in the top 5 tiers depend upon their owner, is just kicking clubs while they're down. With those 6 points we'd be absolutely safe. But there's still a chance they could relegate, and then subsequently destroy, us. Obviously EFL clubs vote for the rules so the EFL has to enforce them; it's just another example why football can't mark its own homework.

[Sutekh]

Bad.

It means the owners have to cut more and lose more to start with. And it's longer and harder to get back to a level our facilities are appropriate for and possible to manage sustainably more than short term.

Definitely bad.

I would imagine that the new prospective owners will be offering a sum of money on the proviso that we are a L1 club next season, a sum that Dai considers meets his valuation.

Unless Dai has agreed a 2nd (almost certainly lower) price in the event we get relegated, if we do get relegated then the new prospective owners will be demanding a discount of the price agreed and then we are back to Dai agreeing to that reduction in the price - something I wouldn't want to stake the Club's future on.

So, IF we get relegated, I fear it would be existential for us.

Which is why the EFL rules in this area are so dangerous and irresponsible. From 2017 - 2020 we broke FFP so fine, deduct points.

But deducting points when an owner loses interest, in an ecosystem where 95% of clubs in the top 5 tiers depend upon their owner, is just kicking clubs while they're down. With those 6 points we'd be absolutely safe. But there's still a chance they could relegate, and then subsequently destroy, us. Obviously EFL clubs vote for the rules so the EFL has to enforce them; it's just another example why football can't mark its own homework.

The issue is that ffp rules as they currently stand are utterly ridiculous and have to be changed for rules that enable the FL to pick up offences in the same season and therefore the offending club(s) punished at the time of the offence(s), rather than the stupidity of a system that encourages clubs to find legal loopholes, muddy the water as much as possible and for the FL to end up applying any punishments due at what is likely to be completely the wrong time. But then the vagueness of it all is probably why the turkeys voted for it, so no wonder it's all such a complete mess.

[SCIAG]

Bad.

It means the owners have to cut more and lose more to start with. And it's longer and harder to get back to a level our facilities are appropriate for and possible to manage sustainably more than short term.

Definitely bad.

I would imagine that the new prospective owners will be offering a sum of money on the proviso that we are a L1 club next season, a sum that Dai considers meets his valuation.

Unless Dai has agreed a 2nd (almost certainly lower) price in the event we get relegated, if we do get relegated then the new prospective owners will be demanding a discount of the price agreed and then we are back to Dai agreeing to that reduction in the price - something I wouldn't want to stake the Club's future on.

So, IF we get relegated, I fear it would be existential for us.

Which is why the EFL rules in this area are so dangerous and irresponsible. From 2017 - 2020 we broke FFP so fine, deduct points.

But deducting points when an owner loses interest, in an ecosystem where 95% of clubs in the top 5 tiers depend upon their owner, is just kicking clubs while they're down. With those 6 points we'd be absolutely safe. But there's still a chance they could relegate, and then subsequently destroy, us. Obviously EFL clubs vote for the rules so the EFL has to enforce them; it's just another example why football can't mark its own homework.

Undermines the integrity of the competition if some teams aren't paying their taxes.

[WestYorksRoyal]

Definitely bad.

I would imagine that the new prospective owners will be offering a sum of money on the proviso that we are a L1 club next season, a sum that Dai considers meets his valuation.

Unless Dai has agreed a 2nd (almost certainly lower) price in the event we get relegated, if we do get relegated then the new prospective owners will be demanding a discount of the price agreed and then we are back to Dai agreeing to that reduction in the price - something I wouldn't want to stake the Club's future on.

So, IF we get relegated, I fear it would be existential for us.

Which is why the EFL rules in this area are so dangerous and irresponsible. From 2017 - 2020 we broke FFP so fine, deduct points.

But deducting points when an owner loses interest, in an ecosystem where 95% of clubs in the top 5 tiers depend upon their owner, is just kicking clubs while they're down. With those 6 points we'd be absolutely safe. But there's still a chance they could relegate, and then subsequently destroy, us. Obviously EFL clubs vote for the rules so the EFL has to enforce them; it's just another example why football can't mark its own homework.

Undermines the integrity of the competition if some teams aren't paying their taxes.

If teams don't pay their taxes HMRC can file a winding up petition and that is incentive enough for them to pay.

[Snowflake Royal]

Which is why the EFL rules in this area are so dangerous and irresponsible. From 2017 - 2020 we broke FFP so fine, deduct points.

But deducting points when an owner loses interest, in an ecosystem where 95% of clubs in the top 5 tiers depend upon their owner, is just kicking clubs while they're down. With those 6 points we'd be absolutely safe. But there's still a chance they could relegate, and then subsequently destroy, us. Obviously EFL clubs vote for the rules so the EFL has to enforce them; it's just another example why football can't mark its own homework.

Undermines the integrity of the competition if some teams aren't paying their taxes.

If teams don't pay their taxes HMRC can file a winding up petition and that is incentive enough for them to pay.

Nope

[WestYorksRoyal]

For those interested, Opta think we only have a 2.9% chance of relegation. I wish I shared their confidence.