The Magic Number Thread

[Farnham Royal]

The temptation to set it up as:

Champions - 138
Promotion - 138
Play offs - 138
Survival - 138

And track all 4 is there. But keeping it up would be a mammoth ballache.

79 Points is enough to absolutely guarantee survival at the beginning of the season. But, as you say, painful to track after every game by every team. Maybe in my retirement.

I'm honoured that you used one of only 9 ever posts to reply to my whimsical idea of constant magic number forecasting.

You are most welcome. Now you are at 2 of 10.

[Mr Angry]

Next season it should start from 138 and be updated weekly on how many more points we still need to finish top.

Standards must be raised.

The temptation to set it up as:

Champions - 138
Promotion - 138
Play offs - 138
Survival - 138

And track all 4 is there. But keeping it up would be a mammoth ballache.

79 Points is enough to absolutely guarantee survival at the beginning of the season. But, as you say, painful to track after every game by every team. Maybe in my retirement.

That would mean 20 teams would finish with at least 79 points, and 1 team with 78 points.

That would total 1,658 points (if we say the bottom 3 teams all scored 0 points).

24 teams in the League; each plays 46 times. = 1,104 games in total.

3 points per game = 3,312 points.

However, 50% of the games MUST end in defeat (you can't have both teams winning the same game); therefore 3,312 points /2 = 1,656 points maximum that can be achieved in a season (with no draws whatsoever.

Thats 2 points fewer than the 1,658 which would be the total for a team surviving with 79 points.

(Friday afternoons are VERY quiet at work..................)

[Snowflake Royal]

I think I preferred my way of just going with the max and letting games played take care of it quickly.

Brain currently melting.

[Snowflake Royal]

So if Champions is 136
Auto is 133? - win everything except the two against top... one of which is a draw...
POs 108?

I'm relatively confident on that...

That's all good. But then for 20th, you need the max points the team in 21st could get whilst still being 21st, so pretty low totals for the top half. And bottom 3 all on 0 points?

[Silver Fox]

The whole point of a magic number comes from baseball, where it's easier as it's just wins and losses, no draws to confuse things.

Anyway, you'll notice there aren't any magic numbers on the current standings, two weeks into the season, because at this point, that would be fvcking stupid.

HTH

[rabidbee]

Next season it should start from 138 and be updated weekly on how many more points we still need to finish top.

Standards must be raised.

The temptation to set it up as:

Champions - 138
Promotion - 138
Play offs - 138
Survival - 138

And track all 4 is there. But keeping it up would be a mammoth ballache.

79 Points is enough to absolutely guarantee survival at the beginning of the season. But, as you say, painful to track after every game by every team. Maybe in my retirement.

I started thinking about this earlier, but it put me to sleep (true story). I made it 72 points to guarantee survival - 22 teams win all of their home games (69 pts) and we win all home and one away game (with the 24th team finishing bottom with 66 pts). Or is my reasoning flawed?

[rabidbee]

The whole point of a magic number comes from baseball, where it's easier as it's just wins and losses, no draws to confuse things.

Anyway, you'll notice there aren't any magic numbers on the current standings, two weeks into the season, because at this point, that would be fvcking stupid.

HTH

I just enjoy the trying to work out the logic.

[Snowflake Royal]

Of course it's oxf*rd stupid. If we never did anything oxf*rd stupid none of us would be here or support Reading.

[MartinRdg]

The temptation to set it up as:

Champions - 138
Promotion - 138
Play offs - 138
Survival - 138

And track all 4 is there. But keeping it up would be a mammoth ballache.

79 Points is enough to absolutely guarantee survival at the beginning of the season. But, as you say, painful to track after every game by every team. Maybe in my retirement.

I started thinking about this earlier, but it put me to sleep (true story). I made it 72 points to guarantee survival - 22 teams win all of their home games (69 pts) and we win all home and one away game (with the 24th team finishing bottom with 66 pts). Or is my reasoning flawed?

I was thinking that if all teams won their home games and lost the away games which would equal 69 points then you would need 1 more point meaning you would need 70 points (but if that was the case you would also win the league on 70 points!)

[Farnham Royal]

The temptation to set it up as:

Champions - 138
Promotion - 138
Play offs - 138
Survival - 138

And track all 4 is there. But keeping it up would be a mammoth ballache.

79 Points is enough to absolutely guarantee survival at the beginning of the season. But, as you say, painful to track after every game by every team. Maybe in my retirement.

That would mean 20 teams would finish with at least 79 points, and 1 team with 78 points.

That would total 1,658 points (if we say the bottom 3 teams all scored 0 points).

24 teams in the League; each plays 46 times. = 1,104 games in total.

3 points per game = 3,312 points.

However, 50% of the games MUST end in defeat (you can't have both teams winning the same game); therefore 3,312 points /2 = 1,656 points maximum that can be achieved in a season (with no draws whatsoever.

Thats 2 points fewer than the 1,658 which would be the total for a team surviving with 79 points.

(Friday afternoons are VERY quiet at work..................)

Taking it to the extreme, which we obviously are (it's a Friday) 21 teams can theoretically each get 78 points...they win all their 23 home games plus the three away games against the teams in 22-24th place...so 26 wins x 3 points = 78. The teams in 22-24th place lose every game against the top 21 teams. They split the remaining 18 points from the 6 games where they play each other but that doesn't matter as they are far adrift. Of the 21 teams getting 78 points, the one with the worst GD would go down. So, in a ludicrously tortured way, you could theoretically get relegated on 78 points, meaning 79 is required to guarantee survival before a ball is kicked. The 1,656 points is made up of 21 x 78 plus the 18 points from bottom three playing each other (e.g., they each win their home games against the two others so they get 6 points each.)

[Mr Angry]

79 Points is enough to absolutely guarantee survival at the beginning of the season. But, as you say, painful to track after every game by every team. Maybe in my retirement.

That would mean 20 teams would finish with at least 79 points, and 1 team with 78 points.

That would total 1,658 points (if we say the bottom 3 teams all scored 0 points).

24 teams in the League; each plays 46 times. = 1,104 games in total.

3 points per game = 3,312 points.

However, 50% of the games MUST end in defeat (you can't have both teams winning the same game); therefore 3,312 points /2 = 1,656 points maximum that can be achieved in a season (with no draws whatsoever.

Thats 2 points fewer than the 1,658 which would be the total for a team surviving with 79 points.

(Friday afternoons are VERY quiet at work..................)

Taking it to the extreme, which we obviously are (it's a Friday) 21 teams can theoretically each get 78 points...they win all their 23 home games plus the three away games against the teams in 22-24th place...so 26 wins x 3 points = 78. The teams in 22-24th place lose every game against the top 21 teams. They split the remaining 18 points from the 6 games where they play each other but that doesn't matter as they are far adrift. Of the 21 teams getting 78 points, the one with the worst GD would go down. So, in a ludicrously tortured way, you could theoretically get relegated on 78 points, meaning 79 is required to guarantee survival before a ball is kicked. The 1,656 points is made up of 21 x 78 plus the 18 points from bottom three playing each other (e.g., they each win their home games against the two others so they get 6 points each.)

Brilliant!!!!!!

That would be a hell of a season wouldn't it????

[Franchise FC]

That would mean 20 teams would finish with at least 79 points, and 1 team with 78 points.

That would total 1,658 points (if we say the bottom 3 teams all scored 0 points).

24 teams in the League; each plays 46 times. = 1,104 games in total.

3 points per game = 3,312 points.

However, 50% of the games MUST end in defeat (you can't have both teams winning the same game); therefore 3,312 points /2 = 1,656 points maximum that can be achieved in a season (with no draws whatsoever.

Thats 2 points fewer than the 1,658 which would be the total for a team surviving with 79 points.

(Friday afternoons are VERY quiet at work..................)

Taking it to the extreme, which we obviously are (it's a Friday) 21 teams can theoretically each get 78 points...they win all their 23 home games plus the three away games against the teams in 22-24th place...so 26 wins x 3 points = 78. The teams in 22-24th place lose every game against the top 21 teams. They split the remaining 18 points from the 6 games where they play each other but that doesn't matter as they are far adrift. Of the 21 teams getting 78 points, the one with the worst GD would go down. So, in a ludicrously tortured way, you could theoretically get relegated on 78 points, meaning 79 is required to guarantee survival before a ball is kicked. The 1,656 points is made up of 21 x 78 plus the 18 points from bottom three playing each other (e.g., they each win their home games against the two others so they get 6 points each.)

Brilliant!!!!!!

That would be a hell of a season wouldn't it????

Final day would put Sky in a complete tailspin as they’d have to show the entire table for ‘as it stands’
Wouldn’t be too great for some heart health as one or two goals could mean the difference between auto promotion and relegation

[rabidbee]

1

[JC]

0.1

[Snowflake Royal]

0 (2).

Vale can no longer catch us. Cheltenham or Burton could, but not both, because they play each other.

[rabidbee]

Forgot about that.

Whoop!

[Clyde1998]

0 (2).

Vale can no longer catch us. Cheltenham or Burton could, but not both, because they play each other.

This. Just spent about twenty minutes explaining this to someone.

They eventually got why I kept bringing that Cheltenham-Burton game into the equation.

[Biscuit goalie]

Only Cheltenham (50 max) can catch us but only if we lose both our final games (one of which is Burton) but we have a superior GD
(BA away, Imps at home, Peterborough at home, Stevenage away)
Port Vale can only get 49 max ( WW at home, BW away, Cam at home )
Fleetwood can only get 46 max
Carlisle

[From Despair To Where?]

Burton and Cheltenham can catch us but not both because they play each other

[Clyde1998]

Burton can catch us.

Yeah.

Both Burton and Cheltenham can catch us.
Both need maximum points.
As they play each other, at least one will drop points.
This means Carlisle; Fleetwood; Port Vale and one of Burton or Cheltenham cannot catch us.