by YorkshireRoyal99 »
14 Feb 2023 12:26
Snowflake Royal Hound Just don’t think Meite has performed since his injury sadly, not the same player. He’s only actually started 30th times in the last 3 seasons now
It’s 3 goals in 1400 mins since the big injury and he isn’t contributing a lot else either
I think I’d stick with Carroll and Long for this season now. They have the know how and look most likely to score to me; whilst also bringing other attributes to the game as well
Not sure how Long possibly looks more likely to score.
Shane Long's expected goals for the season is 0.88, whereas his expected goals per 90 minutes is 0.09 (barring in mind his average mins per appearance is 44 minutes this season). Non-penalty expected goals is 0.18. He has 1 goal and 1 assist this season.
Meite's expected goals for the season is 2.66, whereas his expected goals per 90 minutes is 0.23 (Meite averages 49 minutes per appearance for comparison). Non-penalty expected goals is 1.96. He has 3 goals and 2 assists this season.
Both have featured in 21 games this season, where Meite has played slightly more minutes than Long, 1028 compared to Long's 932.
What does this mean? It means that both strikers are outperforming their expected goals tally for the season (although it would be poor if Long hadn't scored this season granted), which is a positive individually, but probably a negative for the team as it means we haven't been creating enough quality chances for either striker in their respective involvements in games this season. You would be expecting Meite to score more goals because he has had the better quality of chances.
Meite is also slightly better on the expected assists side of things, Meite was expected to assist 1.76 goals and his expected assists per 90 is 0.15, whereas Long's expected assists are 1.16 and expected assists per 90 is 0.11.
So it seems like Meite is better suited to how we play as a CF, one thing these stats do not show is obviously the context of the situation. For example, Long has been substituted on 3 times more than Meite which means he's coming on in a different situation, potentially chasing a game/holding onto a lead.
Editing in, sorry it's a bit long and data heavy, just think it's quite an interesting insight to both players. Joao is actually the forward who has the highest expected goals ratio of all of our strikers this season.