Rival Watch

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Zip
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Re: Rival Watch

by Zip » 14 Mar 2022 11:07

Stranded
Zip Trust me Stranded. I very much want this to be in our own hands. I’m just very wary of what many of you are saying on here. One win makes a huge difference. If we get it suddenly a gap of 7/8 points could appear and that gives us real breathing space. Conversely if Barnsley win v Brizzle tomorrow and we lose the gap is just one point.

My biggest concern is that our form is dreadful in 2022. We have no momentum. We capitulate. I see the early April games as pivotal. Three big games in a week away v Barnsley followed by two home games v Stoke and Cardiff. All three are winnable and those are the games we need to pick up a good number of points from.
If we can win 6/7 points from those three then I think we will end up ok.

We need 40 points imo.


I know you do, and apologies here but I don't quite thing you get that it is in our hands even if Barnsley win and we lose tomorrow (though it would also then be in theirs).

We have absolutely no momentum and haven't had all year, yet and this is a fact - we are in a better position in terms of a relegation battle than we were on January 1st. The gap to the bottom 3 is double what it was.

The race has only been out of hands for the time between the final whistle v Peterborough and the final whistle v Preston.

We are currently the only team in the race that has it's fate in our own hands - eveyone else needs us to lose and pick up points.

My confidence we will maintain it is low but it is higher than if we were relying on favours as the bottom 3 currently are.


Oh I get that it’s in our own hands....for now. That can change very very quickly though and I’m not sure that’s being recognised. As you say a Barnsley win tomorrow and a draw or loss for us means it’s in their hands too. Even a Barnsley draw tomorrow may well mean it’s in their hands too. We mustn’t forget our goal difference is now a real problem re Derby and Barnsley as well.

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Re: Rival Watch

by leon » 14 Mar 2022 11:25

Zip Trust me Stranded. I very much want this to be in our own hands. I’m just very wary of what many of you are saying on here. One win makes a huge difference. If we get it suddenly a gap of 7/8 points could appear and that gives us real breathing space. Conversely if Barnsley win v Brizzle tomorrow and we lose the gap is just one point.

My biggest concern is that our form is dreadful in 2022. We have no momentum. We capitulate. I see the early April games as pivotal. Three big games in a week away v Barnsley followed by two home games v Stoke and Cardiff. All three are winnable and those are the games we need to pick up a good number of points from.
If we can win 6/7 points from those three then I think we will end up ok.

We need 40 points imo.


I think we're fcuked.

I told jnr leon II last night to prepare himself for relegation. What we needed was a solid, experienced manager to come in and organise the team to do the simple stuff - eg defending set pieces. We got Paul Ince. "The Guvnor". Marvelous.

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Zip
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Re: Rival Watch

by Zip » 14 Mar 2022 11:29

leon
Zip Trust me Stranded. I very much want this to be in our own hands. I’m just very wary of what many of you are saying on here. One win makes a huge difference. If we get it suddenly a gap of 7/8 points could appear and that gives us real breathing space. Conversely if Barnsley win v Brizzle tomorrow and we lose the gap is just one point.

My biggest concern is that our form is dreadful in 2022. We have no momentum. We capitulate. I see the early April games as pivotal. Three big games in a week away v Barnsley followed by two home games v Stoke and Cardiff. All three are winnable and those are the games we need to pick up a good number of points from.
If we can win 6/7 points from those three then I think we will end up ok.

We need 40 points imo.


I think we're fcuked.

I told jnr leon II last night to prepare himself for relegation. What we needed was a solid, experienced manager to come in and organise the team to do the simple stuff - eg defending set pieces. We got Paul Ince. "The Guvnor". Marvelous.


We are a bottom three side. If neither Derby or us had been deducted points this season we would be in the relegation zone. We also have the second worst goal difference in the division.
Yes we may stay up but like you I’m not optimistic.

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Re: Rival Watch

by YorkshireRoyal99 » 14 Mar 2022 11:31

It was never going to be as easy as just steer clear though I don't think. We got 7 points in 3 games which had us sitting comfortably above the bottom 3, now we will probably be sitting much closer after this week. Even if we lose tomorrow and Barnsley win and they sit 1 point behind us, they've still got another point to catch, whilst being on a decent run themselves. The problem Barnsley will have is if they got 3/4 games without a win and then we suddenly win a game or two and pick up points on them.

We probably won't finish 3+ points clear come game 46, or if we do it will be because we win game 45 and Barnsley, or whoever occupies 22nd, lose on game 45. Theoretically, we should finish 6+ points clear, but we won't as that very rarely happens to any team in this division who finishes 21st. It will be a close run thing, I wasn't expecting the gap to stay at 5-7 points like it was a couple of weeks ago.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Hound » 14 Mar 2022 11:32

Zip
Stranded
Zip Trust me Stranded. I very much want this to be in our own hands. I’m just very wary of what many of you are saying on here. One win makes a huge difference. If we get it suddenly a gap of 7/8 points could appear and that gives us real breathing space. Conversely if Barnsley win v Brizzle tomorrow and we lose the gap is just one point.

My biggest concern is that our form is dreadful in 2022. We have no momentum. We capitulate. I see the early April games as pivotal. Three big games in a week away v Barnsley followed by two home games v Stoke and Cardiff. All three are winnable and those are the games we need to pick up a good number of points from.
If we can win 6/7 points from those three then I think we will end up ok.

We need 40 points imo.


I know you do, and apologies here but I don't quite thing you get that it is in our hands even if Barnsley win and we lose tomorrow (though it would also then be in theirs).

We have absolutely no momentum and haven't had all year, yet and this is a fact - we are in a better position in terms of a relegation battle than we were on January 1st. The gap to the bottom 3 is double what it was.

The race has only been out of hands for the time between the final whistle v Peterborough and the final whistle v Preston.

We are currently the only team in the race that has it's fate in our own hands - eveyone else needs us to lose and pick up points.

My confidence we will maintain it is low but it is higher than if we were relying on favours as the bottom 3 currently are.


Oh I get that it’s in our own hands....for now. That can change very very quickly though and I’m not sure that’s being recognised. As you say a Barnsley win tomorrow and a draw or loss for us means it’s in their hands too. Even a Barnsley draw tomorrow may well mean it’s in their hands too. We mustn’t forget our goal difference is now a real problem re Derby and Barnsley as well.



All this ‘in our own hands’ stuff is nonsense though isn’t it - at least until there are about 3 games left

Not like us, Derby and Barnsley are going to suddenly win every game we play is it?


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Re: Rival Watch

by YorkshireRoyal99 » 14 Mar 2022 11:35

Hound
Zip
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I know you do, and apologies here but I don't quite thing you get that it is in our hands even if Barnsley win and we lose tomorrow (though it would also then be in theirs).

We have absolutely no momentum and haven't had all year, yet and this is a fact - we are in a better position in terms of a relegation battle than we were on January 1st. The gap to the bottom 3 is double what it was.

The race has only been out of hands for the time between the final whistle v Peterborough and the final whistle v Preston.

We are currently the only team in the race that has it's fate in our own hands - eveyone else needs us to lose and pick up points.

My confidence we will maintain it is low but it is higher than if we were relying on favours as the bottom 3 currently are.


Oh I get that it’s in our own hands....for now. That can change very very quickly though and I’m not sure that’s being recognised. As you say a Barnsley win tomorrow and a draw or loss for us means it’s in their hands too. Even a Barnsley draw tomorrow may well mean it’s in their hands too. We mustn’t forget our goal difference is now a real problem re Derby and Barnsley as well.



All this ‘in our own hands’ stuff is nonsense though isn’t it - at least until there are about 3 games left

Not like us, Derby and Barnsley are going to suddenly win every game we play is it?


It's not about winning every game though, it's about matching what other teams do. If we match what Barnsley, Derby and Peterborough do between now and game 46, we survive. People use "winning every game" as the obvious example. The fact is, the bottom 3 are relying on us to drop points somewhere whilst they gain points on us. The first is certain to happen, the latter is far less likely to happen though.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Stranded » 14 Mar 2022 12:31

YorkshireRoyal99
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Zip
Oh I get that it’s in our own hands....for now. That can change very very quickly though and I’m not sure that’s being recognised. As you say a Barnsley win tomorrow and a draw or loss for us means it’s in their hands too. Even a Barnsley draw tomorrow may well mean it’s in their hands too. We mustn’t forget our goal difference is now a real problem re Derby and Barnsley as well.



All this ‘in our own hands’ stuff is nonsense though isn’t it - at least until there are about 3 games left

Not like us, Derby and Barnsley are going to suddenly win every game we play is it?


It's not about winning every game though, it's about matching what other teams do. If we match what Barnsley, Derby and Peterborough do between now and game 46, we survive. People use "winning every game" as the obvious example. The fact is, the bottom 3 are relying on us to drop points somewhere whilst they gain points on us. The first is certain to happen, the latter is far less likely to happen though.


This. It's just a very basic way of saying we have a headstart in staying up and as long as we keep pace (or only fall slightly behind) then we will delay our eventual relegation 12 months.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Hound » 14 Mar 2022 13:17

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All this ‘in our own hands’ stuff is nonsense though isn’t it - at least until there are about 3 games left

Not like us, Derby and Barnsley are going to suddenly win every game we play is it?


It's not about winning every game though, it's about matching what other teams do. If we match what Barnsley, Derby and Peterborough do between now and game 46, we survive. People use "winning every game" as the obvious example. The fact is, the bottom 3 are relying on us to drop points somewhere whilst they gain points on us. The first is certain to happen, the latter is far less likely to happen though.


This. It's just a very basic way of saying we have a headstart in staying up and as long as we keep pace (or only fall slightly behind) then we will delay our eventual relegation 12 months.


Then we should just say ‘match what the other sides do’. As it is ‘in our own hands’ is just a pointless comment to make. It’s in all of the bottom 4s own hands really - if any one of them do get say 22 points from their last 10 games they’ll be safe.

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Re: Rival Watch

by bcubed » 14 Mar 2022 14:37

leon
Zip Trust me Stranded. I very much want this to be in our own hands. I’m just very wary of what many of you are saying on here. One win makes a huge difference. If we get it suddenly a gap of 7/8 points could appear and that gives us real breathing space. Conversely if Barnsley win v Brizzle tomorrow and we lose the gap is just one point.

My biggest concern is that our form is dreadful in 2022. We have no momentum. We capitulate. I see the early April games as pivotal. Three big games in a week away v Barnsley followed by two home games v Stoke and Cardiff. All three are winnable and those are the games we need to pick up a good number of points from.
If we can win 6/7 points from those three then I think we will end up ok.

We need 40 points imo.


I think we're fcuked.

I told jnr leon II last night to prepare himself for relegation. What we needed was a solid, experienced manager to come in and organise the team to do the simple stuff - eg defending set pieces. We got Paul Ince. "The Guvnor". Marvelous.


I think for ones own sanity this is the sensible approach. Assume we're down and if it doesn't happen it's a bonus


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Re: Rival Watch

by Stranded » 14 Mar 2022 14:41

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It's not about winning every game though, it's about matching what other teams do. If we match what Barnsley, Derby and Peterborough do between now and game 46, we survive. People use "winning every game" as the obvious example. The fact is, the bottom 3 are relying on us to drop points somewhere whilst they gain points on us. The first is certain to happen, the latter is far less likely to happen though.


This. It's just a very basic way of saying we have a headstart in staying up and as long as we keep pace (or only fall slightly behind) then we will delay our eventual relegation 12 months.


Then we should just say ‘match what the other sides do’. As it is ‘in our own hands’ is just a pointless comment to make. It’s in all of the bottom 4s own hands really - if any one of them do get say 22 points from their last 10 games they’ll be safe.


Yeah but "match what other sides do" isn't right. As it stands, we can be 3 points worse than Barnsley, 4 than Derby and 5 than Peterboro and still be fine.

Being in your own hands just means, our completely dysfunctional team control what happens at the end of the season currently, whilst the other 3 don't - they have to pick up more points than us. We just need to pick up points.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Snowflake Royal » 14 Mar 2022 17:34

Let's face it, if we dip below 21st, we're not coming back from it.

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Re: Rival Watch

by 3points » 15 Mar 2022 08:57

Stoke City battling against P&S rules. Sold their stadium for £70m, that's £33m more than we sold the Madejski for (and it's in Stoke!!!!)

https://www.thebusinessdesk.com/westmid ... 2022_Daily

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Re: Rival Watch

by Franchise FC » 15 Mar 2022 10:12

3points Stoke City battling against P&S rules. Sold their stadium for £70m, that's £33m more than we sold the Madejski for (and it's in Stoke!!!!)

https://www.thebusinessdesk.com/westmid ... 2022_Daily

Derby sold their stadium for an inflated price and that’s part of the accounting issues they have.
Given that, how are they suggesting that the business is worth £50m INCLUDING the stadium ?

Hopefully, someone will be able to put me right


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Re: Rival Watch

by tidus_mi2 » 15 Mar 2022 10:17

If Stoke are allowed to sell their stadium for £70m, I feel we should be able to inflate the figure we sold the Madejski and training ground for.

It's only fair, not sure where it would put us for losses though.

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Re: Rival Watch

by 3points » 15 Mar 2022 10:21

tidus_mi2 If Stoke are allowed to sell their stadium for £70m, I feel we should be able to inflate the figure we sold the Madejski and training ground for.

It's only fair, not sure where it would put us for losses though.

The training ground that was sold was Hogwood, not Bearwood, back in 2019. I think that reflected market value at the time given it went to Dai to then build new houses alongside the other redevelopment of the former Arborfield garrison

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Re: Rival Watch

by Elm Park Kid » 15 Mar 2022 10:26

tidus_mi2 If Stoke are allowed to sell their stadium for £70m, I feel we should be able to inflate the figure we sold the Madejski and training ground for.

It's only fair, not sure where it would put us for losses though.


I hope the EFL challenges that figure.

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Re: Rival Watch

by PATRIQT » 15 Mar 2022 11:00

3points Stoke City battling against P&S rules. Sold their stadium for £70m, that's £33m more than we sold the Madejski for (and it's in Stoke!!!!)

https://www.thebusinessdesk.com/westmid ... 2022_Daily


That'll come back to bite them just as it did with Derby.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Hound » 15 Mar 2022 11:25

PATRIQT
3points Stoke City battling against P&S rules. Sold their stadium for £70m, that's £33m more than we sold the Madejski for (and it's in Stoke!!!!)

https://www.thebusinessdesk.com/westmid ... 2022_Daily


That'll come back to bite them just as it did with Derby.


I don’t think Derby got punished for that did they?

It does feel if we wanted to cheat the books we missed a trick with the low (ie valid) valuation of our ground

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Re: Rival Watch

by YorkshireRoyal99 » 15 Mar 2022 12:19

Hound
PATRIQT
3points Stoke City battling against P&S rules. Sold their stadium for £70m, that's £33m more than we sold the Madejski for (and it's in Stoke!!!!)

https://www.thebusinessdesk.com/westmid ... 2022_Daily


That'll come back to bite them just as it did with Derby.


I don’t think Derby got punished for that did they?

It does feel if we wanted to cheat the books we missed a trick with the low (ie valid) valuation of our ground


Yeah but that may have resulted in a further points deduction with would have been potentially disastrous depending on how the table looks come game 46 i.e. we survive by 2 points or less.

I think Derby did get punished for it though as it was classed as an improper accounting practice.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Snowflake Royal » 15 Mar 2022 12:20

Hound
PATRIQT
3points Stoke City battling against P&S rules. Sold their stadium for £70m, that's £33m more than we sold the Madejski for (and it's in Stoke!!!!)

https://www.thebusinessdesk.com/westmid ... 2022_Daily


That'll come back to bite them just as it did with Derby.


I don’t think Derby got punished for that did they?

It does feel if we wanted to cheat the books we missed a trick with the low (ie valid) valuation of our ground

No I think they got away with that part.

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