The Battle To Avoid Relegation Thread

[Royal91]

re the Saints stupid decision part. They were the best visitors at OT all season according to SAF (and "did not deserve to lose") and drew with Everton and at Wigan since they changed managers. Nothing shabby about that.

I really don't think this has much to do with the new manager. They sacked atkins (not that I agree with it) at the perfect time, the team was playing well and the defence had stopped conceding so many. All they have done is continue playing the same way which allows the new man to get an easy start and not have to face the immediate relegation battle that say Redknapp has. The guy can't even speak english so although I'm sure he has tactically tweaked a few things and got his opinion across he is hardly going to turn the club around from top to bottom in this short space of time.

I'm not saying he will get found out because Soton playing the atkins way look to have enough about them to keep them up but if results start to go bad then we will see the measure of the man

Adkins not Atkins come on!

[creative_username_1]

Ern, m8, thinking we'll go down is "fine" (it's clearly going to be very close), but I am sure you remember the sort of shite about the team/BM/SJM you were posting a few weeks ago.

re the Saints stupid decision part. They were the best visitors at OT all season according to SAF (and "did not deserve to lose") and drew with Everton and at Wigan since they changed managers. Nothing shabby about that.

all four bottom teams have taken points of Everton. Wigan are shit. They got beat at OT

[JordCot]

Adkins not Atkins come on!

:/ awkward... typed in a hurry

[Woodcote Royal]

What shite?

This shite along with several shed loads of utter bollox posted elsewhere

I was of the opinion BM should have gone when there were no signs of any improvements and his tactial decison were ´questionable´ to say the very least, but that was no way put in a derrogative way towards BM. In fact when I did suggest he went it was often tagged with the line "with a heavy heart" as I certainly appreciate what he has done for the club. I am delighted for him as he has picked things up and given us a chance and there will be nobody happier than me if I am proved 100% wrong and we avoid the drop.

I dont think I have actually commented about SJM this season as I have always assumed the buck stops with Anton, and the jury is still well and truely out with him. Maybe your post is more motivated by your general dislike for me, if so, good luck and carry on if it makes you feel better, but after all this is a discussion board and there are bound to be differences of opinions. Maybe you should develop a thicker skin, stop taking comments to heart and stop making things up to further fuel and justify your dislike for someone elses opinion

Maybe it's time that you and others finally tired of being wrong and stopped posting the same blinkered shite season after season, after season, after season, after season, after season..........................................

[Big Ern]

What shite?

This shite along with several shed loads of utter bollox posted elsewhere

I was of the opinion BM should have gone when there were no signs of any improvements and his tactial decison were ´questionable´ to say the very least, but that was no way put in a derrogative way towards BM. In fact when I did suggest he went it was often tagged with the line "with a heavy heart" as I certainly appreciate what he has done for the club. I am delighted for him as he has picked things up and given us a chance and there will be nobody happier than me if I am proved 100% wrong and we avoid the drop.

I dont think I have actually commented about SJM this season as I have always assumed the buck stops with Anton, and the jury is still well and truely out with him. Maybe your post is more motivated by your general dislike for me, if so, good luck and carry on if it makes you feel better, but after all this is a discussion board and there are bound to be differences of opinions. Maybe you should develop a thicker skin, stop taking comments to heart and stop making things up to further fuel and justify your dislike for someone elses opinion

Maybe it's time that you and others finally tired of being wrong and stopped posting the same blinkered shite season after season, after season, after season, after season, after season..........................................

Me thinks you are still smarting after being called a 'Penis.'

Nevermind, believe what you want, I simply won't and can't lower myself to your desperate levels to continue your little argument. Sad really, but I feel sorry for you, you may be a moron, but that crime is also your punishment and and you have a life sentence.

good luck.

[Woodcote Royal]

Yep, being called a penis by the likes of blinkered little Ern is truly cutting

Meanwhile, the rest of us can piss ourselves laughing as every point rams home another nail in the coffin of those blinkered views of yours and all your merry band of "never learns" and "know nothings"

[Fox Talbot]

25 games gone for everyone - 2/3 of the season. What do we find if we look back at what the bottom 6 PL clubs after 25 games have done - going back 5 seasons?

- 2 out of the bottom 3 have gone down in every season but one (when only one such club went down)
- only one club who was not in the bottom six after 25 games got relegated (Newcastle) - so we're unlikely to get 'help' from clubs higher up the table
- the number of points required to finish one point above 18th place has been: 37, 40, 31, 35, 37
- in the season when 40 points was needed the bottom 3 clubs had got a combined total of 71 points after 25 games each. The current total for the bottom 3 clubs is 59 which is a bit on the low side. That suggests to me the safety mark is likely to be 35-37 again
- the number of points gained in their last 13 games by bottom 6 clubs over the past seasons varies from 26 (Spurs) to 2 (Derby). Over half (17/30) the clubs gained more than a point a game. If we matched that we ought to be safe. NB Wigan gained 24 and 19 points in the last 2 seasons, QPR gained 16 last time
- we're 17th today and the number of points we've got (23) is about average for a club in 17th place after 25 games

Conclusions: it's between the bottom six, it's an average season in terms of points target, the performances of individual clubs in the last 13 games vary enormously and can be quite strong. Sorry if I've wasted your time stating the more or less obvious!

[BKRoyale]

Lol love all the stats posts, when basically we just need to win as many as possible, and if not win try not to lose....that's all we can do.

This is by no means a dig, I enjoy reading the various spin people put on the stats, but it is funny....

[wingnut]

25 games gone for everyone - 2/3 of the season. What do we find if we look back at what the bottom 6 PL clubs after 25 games have done - going back 5 seasons?

- 2 out of the bottom 3 have gone down in every season but one (when only one such club went down)
- only one club who was not in the bottom six after 25 games got relegated (Newcastle) - so we're unlikely to get 'help' from clubs higher up the table
- the number of points required to finish one point above 18th place has been: 37, 40, 31, 35, 37
- in the season when 40 points was needed the bottom 3 clubs had got a combined total of 71 points after 25 games each. The current total for the bottom 3 clubs is 59 which is a bit on the low side. That suggests to me the safety mark is likely to be 35-37 again
- the number of points gained in their last 13 games by bottom 6 clubs over the past seasons varies from 26 (Spurs) to 2 (Derby). Over half (17/30) the clubs gained more than a point a game. If we matched that we ought to be safe. NB Wigan gained 24 and 19 points in the last 2 seasons, QPR gained 16 last time
- we're 17th today and the number of points we've got (23) is about average for a club in 17th place after 25 games

Conclusions: it's between the bottom six, it's an average season in terms of points target, the performances of individual clubs in the last 13 games vary enormously and can be quite strong. Sorry if I've wasted your time stating the more or less obvious!

It is interesting, FT.
For further interest, how much are the averages skewed by Derby's abysmal performance?

[paultheroyal]

Lol love all the stats posts, when basically we just need to win as many as possible, and if not win try not to lose....that's all we can do.

This is by no means a dig, I enjoy reading the various spin people put on the stats, but it is funny....

Exactly - its all about the 10 game countdown - well five actually.

[Fox Talbot]

Hi Wingnut, I didn't include many averages in that because Derby's historic season is such an outlier.

The measure they especially affected was the combined points total gained by the bottom 3 after 25 games each. The readings are: 59 (this season), 60 /71/62/67/49. Spot the Derby! Derby and Pompey (16) are the only sides to have fewer points than QPR (17) at this stage.

I also did an analysis of how easy / difficult the remaining fixtures are for the bottom 5. In my view they come out virtually equal, not surprising given there is still one third of the season left.

[andrew1957]

Win the next two against Stoke and Wigan - who as it happens are both totally out of form at the moment - and it will begin to look academic as we would then have 29 from 27 games. I think that would give us a platform for comfortable survival and I am sure that Brian is very aware of this and we will be going all out for two wins.

[Royal Ginger]

25 games gone for everyone - 2/3 of the season. What do we find if we look back at what the bottom 6 PL clubs after 25 games have done - going back 5 seasons?

- 2 out of the bottom 3 have gone down in every season but one (when only one such club went down)
- only one club who was not in the bottom six after 25 games got relegated (Newcastle) - so we're unlikely to get 'help' from clubs higher up the table
- the number of points required to finish one point above 18th place has been: 37, 40, 31, 35, 37
- in the season when 40 points was needed the bottom 3 clubs had got a combined total of 71 points after 25 games each. The current total for the bottom 3 clubs is 59 which is a bit on the low side. That suggests to me the safety mark is likely to be 35-37 again
- the number of points gained in their last 13 games by bottom 6 clubs over the past seasons varies from 26 (Spurs) to 2 (Derby). Over half (17/30) the clubs gained more than a point a game. If we matched that we ought to be safe. NB Wigan gained 24 and 19 points in the last 2 seasons, QPR gained 16 last time
- we're 17th today and the number of points we've got (23) is about average for a club in 17th place after 25 games

Conclusions: it's between the bottom six, it's an average season in terms of points target, the performances of individual clubs in the last 13 games vary enormously and can be quite strong. Sorry if I've wasted your time stating the more or less obvious!

So basically, the Rougeometer is correct (of course it is) in giving us just slightly better than 50/50.

[Woodcote Royal]

Positive results yes, but the teams around us will be saying all the same things with good reason. Still odds on for the drop, but at least we'll go down kicking and screaming rather than dead by March.

So, basically, it makes you wrong

[Big Ern]

Positive results yes, but the teams around us will be saying all the same things with good reason. Still odds on for the drop, but at least we'll go down kicking and screaming rather than dead by March.

So, basically, it makes you wrong

Your unwavering confidence is admirable, however far too early to say who is right or who is wrong. Hopefully we will pull away from the drop zone, but equally we could easily sink back into it.

[Royal Ginger]

Positive results yes, but the teams around us will be saying all the same things with good reason. Still odds on for the drop, but at least we'll go down kicking and screaming rather than dead by March.

So, basically, it makes you wrong

Yep, some good points swung my opinion.

[Woodcote Royal]

Two responses to the same post, is this a sign of desperation, alzhemers

Where have I said we will not be relegated? What I've said, time and time again, is that we never reached the point where we were doomed, as so many were claiming, and that just a modest improvement in form was always going to make staying up very possible.

Furthermore, whatever the bookmakers have chosen to offer their customers, based on current form and our favourable run-in, not to mention no longer being in the drop zone the odds should have been in our favour for several weeks now.

What I'm happy to say, as we sit 3rd in the form table, is that there's no way we will be relegated if we maintain the same level of performance as we've seen in the last 4 matches.

[creative_username_1]

The form table has arbitrarily chosen a certain number of games it doesn't really reflect the strenght of the team.

I had a look at the numbers since football began (92) and it appears that around 32-33 games gives the best indicator
of the strength of a team. Obvs the last result has a stronger indicator than the 30th result but it prolly not as much as
you think

[Hampshire Royal]

The result of our 30th match was a 1-0 away win at a fancied team. Our last game was a 2-1 home win against what are considered to be a good team. In fact, if we took the points gained in our last 38 games we would now have 52 points!!

[Ian Royal]

Two responses to the same post, is this a sign of desperation, alzhemers

Where have I said we will not be relegated? What I've said, time and time again, is that we never reached the point where we were doomed, as so many were claiming, and that just a modest improvement in form was always going to make staying up very possible.

Furthermore, whatever the bookmakers have chosen to offer their customers, based on current form and our favourable run-in, not to mention no longer being in the drop zone the odds should have been in our favour for several weeks now.

What I'm happy to say, as we sit 3rd in the form table, is that there's no way we will be relegated if we maintain the same level of performance as we've seen in the last 4 matches.

modest improvement in form!? Are you mad!?

We went from 4 points in 8 games (Norwich to Arsenal - 0.5 points a game) to 14 out of 8 (Man City to Sunderland 1.75 points a game). That's a HUGE turnaround in form. Over a season, that's the difference between finishing 5th, and finising bottom by 6 points last season!!! And it's not even close to the best set of results I could use to prove the point, it's based around the point we switched back to 4-5-1.

Which, I hasten to add, was one of the things that the people who were saying we were up shit creek were saying needed to happen. Along with Guthrie and Pearce returning to the team. We were doomed. Unless we made the necessary changes which had been needed for a while. We made them. We improved. We're now in with a decent chance of survival. It's that simple.