89 Points?

[CMRoyal]

This season Swansea have beaten

3-1 WOLVES (TOP)
2-0 READING (3rd)
2-0 PRESTON (4th)
4-1 PRESTON (4th
2-0 BURNLEY (7th)
3-0 IPSWICH (10th)

They've also drawn with Burnley, QPR, Cardiff, Sheffield Utd, Birmingham

That's SIX wins and 5 draws v top ten sides. (and three defeats) 23 points from 14 games

So, Swansea pick up a greater proportion of points against top 10 sides than do Bristol C. Yet only four of Swansea's final 14 games are against top 10 sides, so their relative inconsistency against the teams below them could be to Bristol City's advantage, n'est ce pas?

[Alan Partridge]

How is 6 out of 7 wins not excellent form? it doesn't matter who the opposition are. Especially in this league when to use a horrid cliché anyone really can beat anyone.

[Snowball]

Well, I'm going to argue the case for Bristol C finishing higher than Swansea, based on snowball's stats.

Only problem with that, CM is who do Bristol have to play?

EIGHT top sides and only 5 bottom sides

AWAY BIRMINGHAM 2
AWAY READING 3
HOME PRESTON 4
HOME CARDIFF 5
AWAY BURNLEY 7
AWAY SWANSEA 9
HOME IPSWICH 10
AWAY QPR 11

On all known form (which could, of course, change) they should not get more
than three home draws from the above... 3 points?

================
HOME Wednesday 13
HOME Coventry 14
AWAY Derby 16
HOME Blackpool 17
AWAY Forest 20

Three home wins and two away draws would be good 11 points


So they'll be expected (on form so far this season) to get 62 points = about 12th (11-14-14-11-9-13-14 last few years)

Of course if they improve on their season-so-far form or win at Swansea...


SWANSEA THOUGH, have got much easier games, at least on paper

AWAY 05 Cardiff
AWAY 06 Sheff UTD
HOME 08 Bristol
AWAY 11 QPR
HOME 12 Palace

AWAY 13 Wednesday
HOME 15 Doncaster
HOME 16 Derby
HOME 17 Blackpool
AWAY 18 Barnsley
HOME 19 Plymouth
AWAY 20 Forest
HOME 22 Norwich
HOME 24 Charlton

[CMRoyal]

How is 6 out of 7 wins not excellent form? it doesn't matter who the opposition are. Especially in this league when to use a horrid cliché anyone really can beat anyone.

Ah, AP you missed the sleight of hand whereby snowball stretched the form-book out to the last 12 matches in order to bring 3 defeats into the equation.

Remember, this is snowball here where stats are reinterpreted to "prove" points.

[Snowball]

How is 6 out of 7 wins not excellent form? it doesn't matter who the opposition are. Especially in this league when to use a horrid cliché anyone really can beat anyone.

(A) If Reading play 7 of the top-eight sides and win 6/7 that is "excellent" form, agreed?

(B) If Reading play 7 sides from the BOTTOM seven teams and win 6/7 is that EQUALLY good form?

Of course not.

Now if (A) is excellent and (B) is NOT AS GOOD, then (B) is not excellent.


When we talk of a player on loan at a league One club,
we take into consideration tghe fact that those sides
are not as good as Championship sides

We should also take into consideration what sides a team beats

[Snowball]

How is 6 out of 7 wins not excellent form? it doesn't matter who the opposition are. Especially in this league when to use a horrid cliché anyone really can beat anyone.

Ah, AP you missed the sleight of hand whereby snowball stretched the form-book out to the last 12 matches in order to bring 3 defeats into the equation.

Remember, this is snowball here where stats are reinterpreted to "prove" points.

No sleight of hand at all.

IanRoyal was arguing that ten games ought to be a minimum

I have posted 6,12 and 18 match form together for comparison

It's still a fact that Bristol's biggest win is against 12th (1-0)

It's still a fact that 5 of those recent wins were against bottom seven sides

[CMRoyal]

Well, I'm going to argue the case for Bristol C finishing higher than Swansea, based on snowball's stats.

Only problem with that, CM is who do Bristol have to play?

EIGHT top sides and only 5 bottom sides

AWAY BIRMINGHAM 2
AWAY READING 3
HOME PRESTON 4
HOME CARDIFF 5
AWAY BURNLEY 7
AWAY SWANSEA 9
HOME IPSWICH 10
AWAY QPR 11

On all known form (which could, of course, change) they should not get more
than three home draws from the above... 3 points?

================
HOME Wednesday 13
HOME Coventry 14
AWAY Derby 16
HOME Blackpool 17
AWAY Forest 20

Three home wins and two away draws would be good 11 points


So they'll be expected (on form so far this season) to get 62 points = about 12th (11-14-14-11-9-13-14 last few years)

Of course if they improve on their season-so-far form or win at Swansea...


SWANSEA THOUGH, have got much easier games, at least on paper

AWAY 05 Cardiff
AWAY 06 Sheff UTD
HOME 08 Bristol
AWAY 11 QPR
HOME 12 Palace

AWAY 13 Wednesday
HOME 15 Doncaster
HOME 16 Derby
HOME 17 Blackpool
AWAY 18 Barnsley
HOME 19 Plymouth
AWAY 20 Forest
HOME 22 Norwich
HOME 24 Charlton

This is incomplete - you've failed to extrapolate Swansea's form in the same way you have Bristol C's (and have curiously not taken Bristol's maximum wins against the last 6 bottom half opposition teams into their remain games, which would give them 15 points from those, not 11 ). FWIW, I would bet on Swansea finishing the higher team - I was just making the case for City, one that you have failed to fully rebut.

[Hoop Blah]

01 H DREW 2-2 Wolves
02 H LOST 1-2 Birmingham
03 H LOST 1-4 Reading
06 H DREW 0-0 Sheffield Utd
07 H LOST 1-2 Burnley
09 H DREW 0-0 Swansea City
11 H DREW 1-1 QPR
12 H WON 1-0 Crystal Palace

HOME FORM Played 8. WON ONE, DREW FOUR LOST THREE SCORED 7 CONCEDED 11 7 points from 8 games = .875 points per game

In other words they are absolutely crap against top ten sides and have a single 1-0 win against the side in 12th

I'm sure they'd rather have won a couple of those home games but apart from losing to the top 3 when they were all on pretty decent runs themselves that's not an appalling record. If you beat the 'weaker' teams, don't lose to those in and around the playoffs and then pick up a few points away from home you'll do ok.

I agree their record isn't that great against sides in the top half, but how many of those have they played on this good run of form since Christmas? One, and they took a point of the league leaders. Not too shabby really and a league win is a win whoever it's against.

You're total disregard of their good form is slightly odd!

[cmonurz]

The latest round of stats from Snowball fails to incorporate Swansea's greater inconsistency against the teams in the bottom half of the table.

Quick look over results and I can see Bristol City have lost 1 and drawn 6 against the current bottom half, where Swansea have lost 2 and drawn 8 against those same teams.

[Stranded]

How is 6 out of 7 wins not excellent form? it doesn't matter who the opposition are. Especially in this league when to use a horrid cliché anyone really can beat anyone.

(A) If Reading play 7 of the top-eight sides and win 6/7 that is "excellent" form, agreed?

(B) If Reading play 7 sides from the BOTTOM seven teams and win 6/7 is that EQUALLY good form?

Of course not.

Now if (A) is excellent and (B) is NOT AS GOOD, then (B) is not excellent.


When we talk of a player on loan at a league One club,
we take into consideration tghe fact that those sides
are not as good as Championship sides
We should also take into consideration what sides a team beats

Poor analogy using a player on loan at a lower level.

All the teams Bristol City/Swansea have played are in the same division, so while there will obviously be a fluctuation in the ability of those teams, it won’t be as marked as all the clubs are approximately at the same level – hence the point of divisions.

[Snowball]

So, Swansea pick up a greater proportion of points against top 10 sides than do Bristol C.

There's no comparison. Swansea are a much better side

Yet only four of Swansea's final 14 games are against top 10 sides, so their relative inconsistency against the teams below them could be to Bristol City's advantage, n'est ce pas?

No. I've shown that Swansea do well against top sides

You have to show they will NOT do well against lowly sides. You've made an assumption.

This is their form against bottom half clubs

H WON 3-0 Southampton
H WON 3-1 Watford
A WON 3-2 Norwich City
H WON 3-1 Forest
H WON 1-0 Plymouth

H DREW 1-1 Derby County
A DREW 0-0 Doncaster
A DREW 1-1 Coventry City
H DREW 2-2 Barnsley
A DREW 1-1 Blackpool
H DREW 0-0 Coventry City
A DREW 2-2 Southampton
H DREW 1-1 Wednesday

A LOST 0-2 Watford
A LOST 0-2 Charlton
A LOST 0-2 Palace


Three of those defeats were really early in the season. (Lost 3 of their first 8 incl 0-4 to Reading)

SInce that Reading game, against all-comers they have lost just 3 games in their last 24, WOLVES, BIRMINGHAM (and now Watford)

P24 W9 D12 L3

Their problem is (WAS) drawing too often. They had 8 consecutive draws

[Snowball]

The latest round of stats from Snowball fails to incorporate Swansea's greater inconsistency against the teams in the bottom half of the table.

Quick look over results and I can see Bristol City have lost 1 and drawn 6 against the current bottom half, where Swansea have lost 2 and drawn 8 against those same teams.

Glad to see YOU'RE not "being selective"

This is Swansea versus all bottom-half teams. You have a quibble with "ALL"?

This is their form against bottom half clubs

H WON 3-0 Southampton
H WON 3-1 Watford
A WON 3-2 Norwich City
H WON 3-1 Forest
H WON 1-0 Plymouth

H DREW 1-1 Derby County
A DREW 0-0 Doncaster
A DREW 1-1 Coventry City
H DREW 2-2 Barnsley
A DREW 1-1 Blackpool
H DREW 0-0 Coventry City
A DREW 2-2 Southampton
H DREW 1-1 Wednesday

A LOST 0-2 Watford
A LOST 0-2 Charlton
A LOST 0-2 Palace

[Snowball]

You're total disregard of their good form is slightly odd!

WOAH!! I'm not arguing against "good form", I'm arguing against it being called EXCELLENT form

I have already said they are not a bad side, they are a mid-table side.
I predict 9th-12th, probably 11th/12th (and below Swansea)

[CMRoyal]

So, Swansea pick up a greater proportion of points against top 10 sides than do Bristol C.

There's no comparison. Swansea are a much better side

I'm beginning to see why people lose patience. You've spent how much time comparing the two teams? And now you dismiss me so glibly!

Yet only four of Swansea's final 14 games are against top 10 sides, so their relative inconsistency against the teams below them could be to Bristol City's advantage, n'est ce pas?

No. I've shown that Swansea do well against top sides

You have to show they will NOT do well against lowly sides. You've made an assumption.

I've made no such assumption - I used the word "relatively" quite deliberately. Swansea currently have 48 points from 32 games; Bristol C have 50 points from 33 games. A very similar record. So, if (as you state) Bristol C's record against top clubs is worse than Swansea's, ergo Swansea's record against bottom clubs must be RELATIVELY worse than Britol C's.

[Alan Partridge]

How is 6 out of 7 wins not excellent form? it doesn't matter who the opposition are. Especially in this league when to use a horrid cliché anyone really can beat anyone.

(A) If Reading play 7 of the top-eight sides and win 6/7 that is "excellent" form, agreed?

(B) If Reading play 7 sides from the BOTTOM seven teams and win 6/7 is that EQUALLY good form?

Of course not.

Now if (A) is excellent and (B) is NOT AS GOOD, then (B) is not excellent.


When we talk of a player on loan at a league One club,
we take into consideration tghe fact that those sides
are not as good as Championship sides

We should also take into consideration what sides a team beats

(A) Agreed
(B) No it's the same.

3 points for a win, doesn't matter who it comes against.

6 wins out 7 against anyone is excellent form.

[Snowball]

This is incomplete - you've failed to extrapolate Swansea's form in the same way you have Bristol C's (and have curiously not taken Bristol's maximum wins against the last 6 bottom half opposition teams into their remain games, which would give them 15 points from those, not 11 ). FWIW, I would bet on Swansea finishing the higher team - I was just making the case for City, one that you have failed to fully rebut.

I was talking about Bristol and made an exact prediction based on their form to date.

I do not believe they will beat all five of those sides, because those five are not "bottom six"

I say Bristol have NOT improved, except maybe marginally
and it's simply that they've had a run of easy games. (SIDES OF LOW QUALITY)

You can get 80-1 through to 449/1 for Bristol to win the championship

Swansea are as low as 40-1 and best odds are 153, so the bookies say Swansea are better and will finish higher

Swansea are as low as 4-1 to be promoted (best odds 13-2) Bristol are 8-1 (best odds 14-1)


If I were to extrapolate Swansea's recent run into the run-in I'd be attacked for that
because I think they will average over 2 points a game. WHY? Because they have
found the way to change "playing well but drawing games" into wins, AGAINST SIDES OF ALL QUALITIES)
but have mostly easier games now. (unlike Bristol)

The fly in the ointment (and the only one) is this latest defeat.

I expect Swansea to bounce back, just like we did from the Swansea defeat.

Of course their bubble COULD have burst, but I can't see it. They have real quality
and I predict a play-off place at the very least, 4-5 positions higher than Bristol

[Vision]

How is 6 out of 7 wins not excellent form? it doesn't matter who the opposition are. Especially in this league when to use a horrid cliché anyone really can beat anyone.

(A) If Reading play 7 of the top-eight sides and win 6/7 that is "excellent" form, agreed?

(B) If Reading play 7 sides from the BOTTOM seven teams and win 6/7 is that EQUALLY good form?

Of course not.

Now if (A) is excellent and (B) is NOT AS GOOD, then (B) is not excellent.


When we talk of a player on loan at a league One club,
we take into consideration tghe fact that those sides
are not as good as Championship sides

We should also take into consideration what sides a team beats

LOL. I'm sorry but Ive read more than enough of this. Wolves are top of the table but on FORM is playing them now an easier or harder proposition than playing Derby, Bristol City, Swansea, Doncaster or Cardiff all of whom are below them in the table but recent form stats suggest they are all playing better?

I like the fact that you try to use stats to back up your argument and some of them have benn valid but all you've done here is talk yourself into a corner and frankly you're looking like some sort of lunatic obsessive.

[Snowball]

How is 6 out of 7 wins not excellent form? it doesn't matter who the opposition are. Especially in this league when to use a horrid cliché anyone really can beat anyone.

(A) If Reading play 7 of the top-eight sides and win 6/7 that is "excellent" form, agreed?
(B) If Reading play 7 sides from the BOTTOM seven teams and win 6/7 is that EQUALLY good form?
Of course not.
Now if (A) is excellent and (B) is NOT AS GOOD, then (B) is not excellent.

(A) Agreed
(B) No it's the same.

3 points for a win, doesn't matter who it comes against.

6 wins out 7 against anyone is excellent form.

Hey, I can count, too, and I don't care where Reading get their points from
but to say there is no difference between beating top six sides and bottom-six sides
is just being pig-headed.

When we were in the Prem Coppell made the point that we were not like the top 4 or top ten sides,
that we should not expect any points off the top four and not many off the next six

He said his target was to finish top of the third min-league in the Prem.

HE knows there's a difference, I know there's a difference.

Anyone with average intelligence knows there's a difference.

[Snowball]

LOL. I'm sorry but Ive read more than enough of this. Wolves are top of the table but on FORM is playing them now an easier or harder proposition than playing Derby, Bristol City, Swansea, Doncaster or Cardiff all of whom are below them in the table but recent form stats suggest they are all playing better? I like the fact that you try to use stats to back up your argument and some of them have benn valid but all you've done here is talk yourself into a corner and frankly you're looking like some sort of lunatic obsessive.

Of course, for ONE club, maybe two, at a push three, but ALL ten?

And these comparisons are not made looking only at current form but for the whole season

And in the whole season Swansea have beaten Wolves (when their form was 7-1-1), Reading (after they had just WWWWW), Preston (only 3 defeats in 18)

Swansea aren't "getting lucky" beating sides on downers, and they've also beaten Portsmouth, Hull City, Cardif (and Brentford/Histon) in cups and drawn with Fulham

[Mr Angry]

LOL. I'm sorry but Ive read more than enough of this. Wolves are top of the table but on FORM is playing them now an easier or harder proposition than playing Derby, Bristol City, Swansea, Doncaster or Cardiff all of whom are below them in the table but recent form stats suggest they are all playing better? I like the fact that you try to use stats to back up your argument and some of them have benn valid but all you've done here is talk yourself into a corner and frankly you're looking like some sort of lunatic obsessive.

Of course, for ONE club, maybe two, at a push three, but ALL ten?

And these comparisons are not made looking only at current form but for the whole season

And in the whole season Swansea have beaten Wolves (when their form was 7-1-1), Reading (after they had just WWWWW), Preston (only 3 defeats in 18)

Swansea aren't "getting lucky" beating sides on downers, and they've also beaten Portsmouth, Hull City, Cardif (and Brentford/Histon) in cups and drawn with Fulham

Hmmmm - are you suggesting that Portsmouth and Hull WEREN'T going through a period of sustained poor results when they played Swansea??

But what does all of this statistical porn actually MEAN??

Are you saying we will go up, or not?

Are you saying Swansea will go up, or not?

Are you saying that the points gained by the top 10 teams in the last 15-12 games of the season will determine if they go up, or not?

Are you saying that if a team gets 89 points they will get automatic promotion?

In other words, what is the point of this thread?