The Battle To Avoid Relegation Thread

[royal67]

Realistically, I can see us getting 8 more wins, if we perfom to our best with nice new signings, that would put us on 37, add a couple of draws and we might make it...but as it stands the odds are stack against us, up to the players and BM to do the business

^^ This... ^^

[Alexander Litvinenko]

Again, it's only 8 wins needed if the teams around us get 7 wins. If they get 4 or 5 we only need 6 or 7. If they get more we need more.

[Royal Lady]

Had to laugh at the woman on Radio Berks yesterday who reckoned we'd get 36-40 points. WHERE FROM????

There's optimism and there's delusion and I think a lot of fans who think like the above are completely delusional.

[Wimb]

Too early to start going through this?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/footbal ... efault.stm

[Alexander Litvinenko]

Too early to start going through this?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/footbal ... efault.stm

As long as people are confident enough to be able to accurately predict QPR beating Chelsea then why not?

[melonhead]

Had to laugh at the woman on Radio Berks yesterday who reckoned we'd get 36-40 points. WHERE FROM????

There's optimism and there's delusion and I think a lot of fans who think like the above are completely delusional.

Reading V West Brom WINNABLE -16 points
Newcastle V Reading Draw? - 17 points
Reading V Chelsea
Reading V Sunderland WINNABLE - 20 points
Stoke V Reading
Reading V Wigan WINNABLE - 23 points
Everton V Reading
Reading V Aston Villa WINNABLE - 26 points
Man Utd V Reading
Arsenal V Reading
Reading V Southampton WINNABLE -29 points
Reading V Liverpool Draw? - 30 points
Norwich V Reading WINNABLE - 33 points
Reading V QPR WINNABLE - 36 points
Fulham V Reading WINNABLE - 39 points
Reading V Man City
West Ham V Reading Draw? - 40 points


dont think any of those would be outlandish results
though all of them may be a bit of a surprise

[Woodcote Royal]

Had to laugh at the woman on Radio Berks yesterday who reckoned we'd get 36-40 points. WHERE FROM????

There's optimism and there's delusion and I think a lot of fans who think like the above are completely delusional.

6 wins and 5 draws=36pts........................it's those who think this is impossible who are delusional.

[Ian Royal]

Had to laugh at the woman on Radio Berks yesterday who reckoned we'd get 36-40 points. WHERE FROM????

There's optimism and there's delusion and I think a lot of fans who think like the above are completely delusional.

Reading V West Brom WINNABLE -16 points
Newcastle V Reading Draw? - 17 points
Reading V Chelsea
Reading V Sunderland WINNABLE - 20 points
Stoke V Reading
Reading V Wigan WINNABLE - 23 points
Everton V Reading
Reading V Aston Villa WINNABLE - 26 points
Man Utd V Reading
Arsenal V Reading
Reading V Southampton WINNABLE -29 points
Reading V Liverpool Draw? - 30 points
Norwich V Reading WINNABLE - 33 points
Reading V QPR WINNABLE - 36 points
Fulham V Reading WINNABLE - 39 points
Reading V Man City
West Ham V Reading Draw? - 40 points


dont think any of those would be outlandish results
though all of them may be a bit of a surprise

Think you could reasonably say that Newcastle and West Ham away is winnable if you're saying Norwich, and Fulham away are. And I think they are. Of course we'll need some successful signings, a slice of luck and to improve our performances significantly to do it. It's overly optimistic to predict 36 as a minimum, but far from delusional.

I think 37 will probably see us safe, so that's 24 points (8 wins) from 10 potentially winnable games. Any points we get from Liverpool, City, Chelsea, Utd, Everton, Stoke and Arsenal allow us to drop extra points from the winnable games. Still don't think it will happen, but it's doable.

[royal_ross]

Had to laugh at the woman on Radio Berks yesterday who reckoned we'd get 36-40 points. WHERE FROM????

There's optimism and there's delusion and I think a lot of fans who think like the above are completely delusional.

6 wins and 5 draws=36pts........................it's those who think this is impossible who are delusional.

+1,00000000

[Alexander Litvinenko]

And there's such variability that it's almost impossible to predict.

As an example Reading vs Man City could well be winnable - they might have lost the league title by then and have nothing to play for - or alternative this might be moved if they reach the FA Cup final (it's the same weekend) and so might have all their attention on that and be anxious to avoid injuries.

Just too many variables are involved with so many games to play.

[Wimb]

It's not impossible but history tells us that it's bloody unlikely.

Before this season there had been just eight teams with 13 points or fewer from 21 games.

Seven of them got relegated, only one survived, West Brom who scraped up with 34 points.

[Gordons Cumming]

We'd have beaten Chelsea last night. They were crap and unlucky not to have a player sent off.

Oh well.....................

[Snowball]

Villa, Wigan, Newcastle, Southampton in clear difficulties.

QPR have some good players but they are bottom.

Sunderland are still in danger. Newcastle have been in free-fall and have just lost Dembe Ba

Games we need to win but absolutely must avoid defeat.

Reading V Aston Villa
Reading V Wigan
Reading V QPR
Reading V Southampton
Reading V Sunderland
Newcastle V Reading

The point here is all four are definitely catchable unless they start doing well
but if they win at our place it's really serious. To stay up I think we have to win
at least three of these six games, and at least get draws in 2 others.

W4 D1 L1?



Four Home games from which four points will be tough
but definitely possible. Our home record isn't bad

Reading V West Brom
Reading V Liverpool
Reading V Chelsea
Reading V Man City

Clearly we "expect" defeats against Chelsea and Man City but our home record is decent
and we could sneak a draw or a win against the odds. Liverpool is a bit lucky dip but
again we have a chance if we are at our best and they are a tiny bit off.

WBA might turn out to be a key game. Defeat would be horrendous, and I think we really need to beat them

W1 D1 L2


Four away games, all tough, all of which
we COULD lose, but we will probably get
some points. I suspect we will need four

Norwich V Reading
Fulham V Reading
West Ham V Reading
Stoke V Reading

Stoke's long ball game will probably suit us so I fancy we have a 40-60 chance there
and, as for the other three, it depends on whether they have been pulled into the relegation battle.
If they are nervous we could easily get points

I fancy 4 points, probably W1 D1 L2 but we might sneak 6 points with W2 D1 L1


Presumed losses (but you never know) and a bad hit on GD
effectively a minus point.

Everton V Reading
Arsenal V Reading
Man Utd V Reading


That's just 33 points, almost certainly not enough, so we almost certainly have to beat West Brom
and win 5 of these

Reading V Aston Villa
Reading V Wigan
Reading V QPR
Reading V Southampton
Reading V Sunderland
Newcastle V Reading


and draw the other. Still only 36-37 points... but this year I fancy that going into the last two games

Wigan, Reading, Villa, Sunderland, Newcastle, QPR and 1-2 others will still need points to stay up

I think we are going to see the lowest-ever points total for a side surviving

[Woodcote Royal]

It's not impossible but history tells us that it's bloody unlikely.

Before this season there had been just eight teams with 13 points or fewer from 21 games.

Seven of them got relegated, only one survived, West Brom who scraped up with 34 points.

This is just your selective view of "history"

Back on planet earth (and by that I mean the parts where maths is taught to a reasonable standard ) 6 wins and 5 draws from 17 games isn't even close to being impossibe..........................and, at this stage, it's far from impossible that rather less than 36pts will be required for survival......................as Dirk says, who knows? Just those with the poorest grip on basic arithmetic, it would seem

[USA_Loyal_Royal]

looking at the upcoming matches i believe we could definetely stay up given a bit of luck on our side that we didnt have earlier this season, the right players come in, and a bit of form! we could still stay up!

[SPARTA]

Realistically, I can see us getting 8 more wins, if we perfom to our best with nice new signings, that would put us on 37, add a couple of draws and we might make it...but as it stands the odds are stack against us, up to the players and BM to do the business

^^ This... ^^

"Realistically"

"I can see us getting 8 wins"

[Stuka]

looking at the upcoming matches i believe we could definetely stay up given a bit of luck on our side that we didnt have earlier this season, the right players come in, and a bit of form! we could still stay up!

I admire your optomism. I usually try and keep your chin up but lately having seen some of the perfomances I feel like the Scottish guy in Dad's Army

[mathematically_safe]

take the RTG's off..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/footba ... elsea.html

[Alexander Litvinenko]

After seeing the games against Saints and Sunderland I couldn't see us getting one more win. But confidence is on the way up, McDermott seems to be learning to adapt at last, and it certainly is possible that we'll get half a dozen wins plus various draws.

Just win the five home games against Villa, Sunderland, QPR, Southampton and Wigan and we'll be well on the way.

And, of course, don't forget that we're looking at the likes of the above teams as the ones we're competing against, but there's frequently a team that looks relatively safe at Xmas but who implodes in the second half of the season and plummets into trouble.

[Royalclapper]

There's no way this side is going to win another 6-8 matches. Something around 20-26 points is a realistic amount to finish on.