by Ian Royal »
07 May 2014 22:34
Hoop Blah Ian Royal The thing about ALF is, that even in a team without fluidity or form, playing half to two thirds of a season, and being a passenger in quite a few games, he'll still score 10 to 15 goals a season.
Put him in a team that's playing fluently and well, with continuity upfront and in midfield and if he starts most games, he'll be the mythical 20 a season man.
It's all well and good having a striker who's involved in every game and puts a real shift in, but if they aren't going to score 15+ goals in a season and you don't have someone else that will. Then they aren't scoring enough and you need someone who will.
I can see your logic, but there's nothing to show that he would score those goals (he scores goals in clusters) or that a team at this level could play fluidly or consistently with him in the side.
He's done this in struggling sides. He has a very strong shot conversion rate (28% - Pog 18%, McCleary 8%, Blackman 13%, HRK 13%, Nugent 14%, Vardy 8%, Ings 15%, Vokes 20%), so it's reasonable to say that if you put him in a side that creates more chances, he'll score more goals.
We were in the bottom 10 clubs for shots created, shots on target, passing accuracy and possession in the division. Turn the creative malaise that is symptomatic of around, and you'll see ALF flourish. He has been a factor in that poorer performance certainly, but he is very far from the only or major factor causing it.
Now maybe, even in a side that's playing well and creating, his sometimes anonymity will prevent him getting to Ings' and Nugent's level of 140 odd shots. But if he can get 15 goals off 53 shots starting 25 games in a stuttering team, he can certainly get 18 in a better functioning team playing the whole season. So we'd be crazy not to use him (barring big money moves). It's not like he needs to score 25 goals to be worth having. If you've got a striker who can reliably get you 18 goals a season, they don't really
need to do a whole lot else as long as your team functions and others muck in.
I think that's quite a lot of evidence and quite compelling.