The Snowball stat thread

[Snowball]

T

And now it's 22 Games, soon it will be 23 games

But from now on, as well as "my table" (Since Donny) I'll post a 12-Game current form table.

12? If I can find one, but here is the last 8 games, equal top on ppg


1 8-5-3-0 20-04 16 2.25 ppg 18 Birmingham City
2 8-6-0-2 12-05 07 2.25 ppg 18 Reading (8)

3 8-5-2 -1 11-03 08 2.12 ppg 17 Burnley (11)
4 8-5-2-1 15-09 06 2.12 ppg 17 Blackpool (4)

5 8-5-1-2 09-06 03 2.00 ppg 16 Derby County (12)
6 8-5-1 -2 10-10 00 2.00 ppg 16 West Ham United (1)

I see Derby are up there and have won their last 4 at home

Burnley have won 5 of their last six away!!


Oh Dear!

[Snowball]

Minutes Goals

Church Best Starting Striker in Minutes per Goal

1,384 Start for 4 Goals = 0,364 Mins per Goal ... Church

1,382 Start for 3 Goals = 0,461 Mins per Goal ... Le Fondre

1,342 Start for 2 Goals = 0,671 Mins per Goal ... Hunt

1,026 Start for 1 Goals = 1,026 Mins per Goal ... HRK

0,276 Start for 0 Goals = 9,999 Mins per Goal ... Manset

0,077 Start for 1 Goals = 0.077 Mins per Goal Roberts (Added for future reference)


Interesting that Hunt-Church-Le Fondre are virtually identical on minutes when starting


Church Best Sub Scorer in Minutes per Goal


085 Sub Minutes for 2 Goals = 043 Mins per Goal Church

161 Sub Minutes for 3 Goals = 054 Mins per Goal Le Fondre

170 Sub Minutes for 3 Goals = 057 Mins per Goal Manset

240 Sub Minutes for 2 Goals = 120 Mins per Goal HRK

171 Sub Minutes for 1 Goals = 171 Mins per Goal Hunt

[Snowball]

I confess to being quite shocked by those figures

I think of Alf and Hunt as way ahead of Churchy as strikers
but there are the figures!!


Churchy also figures well in terms of shooting efficiency

3 Goals in 08 Attempts = 1 in 02.67 Manset

6 Goals in 24 Attempts = 1 in 04.00 Church

1 Goals in 04 Attempts = 1 in 04.00 Roberts (added only for further reference)
3 Goals in 16 Attempts = 1 in 05.33 Pearce
4 Goals in 24 Attempts = 1 in 06.00 Hunt
3 Goals in 23 Attempts = 1 in 07.67 HRK
2 Goals in 18 Attempts = 1 in 09.00 Kebe
4 Goals in 46 Attempts = 1 in 11.50 McAnuff


For comparison Shane Long scored 21 league Goals in 95 Attempts last season.
That is a hit rate of 1 in 4.52 = WORSE THAN Church

[Wimb]

Wow.....

Back on topic...

The stats tablesare interesting but a bit tough to casually read as there's no key and the numbers are quite close together, have you considered publishing them as a table in something like excel, then uploading it as an image before linking to it here instead, might make it easier for others to read? Think Strap does that and it's certainly a bit easier to digest.

[Snowball]

Shane Long played 3775 League Minutes in 2010-11 for 21 League Goals @ 1 goal every 180 Minutes

Shane was played a lot, deservedly so.

The strikers this season are playing less minutes so comparisons are unfair

Church, at his current rate, if he had played and continued to play
the same minutes as Long would score 15-16 goals in the season (15.41)

Excluding the fact that Roberts will now take minutes of them
the three main strikers Church-Hunt-Le Fondre were on track
for 2400 minutes in the season and thus if they scored 13-14
league goals they would be doing as well per minute as Shane

ATM they look like they will be around 10


3775 League Minutes for 21 League Goals @ 1 goal every 180 Minutes Long 2010-11
1469 League Minutes for 06 League Goals @ 1 goal every 245 Minutes Church 2011-12
3775 League Minutes for 15 League Goals @ 1 goal every 245 Minutes Church 2011-12 minutes equalised for comparison)

[Snowball]

:shock: Wow.....

Back on topic...

The stats tables are interesting but a bit tough to casually read as there's no key and the numbers are quite close together, have you considered publishing them as a table in something like excel, then uploading it as an image before linking to it here instead, might make it easier for others to read? Think Strap does that and it's certainly a bit easier to digest.

I have never manged to upload an image and then get it into here.

Would love to as transcribing wastes a lot of time

Another point is I have a 30" screen and I'm guessing
that what looks great on MY screen doesn't always translate

[Snowball]

01 18 10-5-3 9 CS 26-14 +12 35 1.94 ppg Reading

KEY

01 Position

18 Played

10-5-3 WDL

CS Clean Sheets

26-14 Goals For-Against

+12 Goal Difference

35 Points

1.94 ppg Points Per game Average
Reading, er, Reading

[cmonurz]

What the first stats most illustrate is that our starting strikers are needing at least four full games to notch a goal. Thank god we signed Roberts!

Other thing to remember is that Le Fondre (who equally I expected to have a better rate than Church) has suffered for the style of football we have played. He is a penalty area goal poacher, and we at times we haven’t been creating many chances. That will have impacted on his ‘scoring rate’ more so imho than Church or Hunt, who are more willing runners around the 30 yard line and on the wings.

[cmonurz]

A lesson in internet passive-aggressiveness.

Cumonurz says he's always polite (yeah, right) yet he started in on picking at this thread on December 17, 8 weeks and two days ago. I stated my reasons for the table since Doncaster then, yet he continues to come back and back and back doing the same thing. He started with sarcasm. All the words below are his in chronological order. Being polite includes saying "You're sensitive" four times, you're paranoid, you're snide, you are constantly sniping, you have contempt, you're rude, arrogant, aggressive, petulant and paranoid and have zero understanding, you're a pit-bull with its teeth pulled out, your bile-filled rants. You're utterly pathetic, vindictive, bordering on insane, utterly bizarre, and "I think you have had a mental breakdown."

If that is POLITE, what's impolite?

Here are his words, a sort of little prayer.


December 17th

So 16 games is now the form table? What a bizarre response, I haven't bothered replying to you for months, and your first reply is an insult. Just questioning how more than a third of a season was now a 'form table'. I won't bother again.

Don't be so sensitive. You're being very sensitive. Or is it paranoid? I'm not sure. No passive aggression, no insult, just questioning your approach. Again, stop being so sensitive, we're not just here to read your posts and nod in agreement.

How does this compare to last season, which is the point of the thread, no? Neither is realistic or particularly interesting, it's just an extrapolation of numbers over a completely different set of fixtures. Is that another unwarranted outburst? Sorry to disagree with you again, I know you're sensitive.

Someone else losing a bit of perspective here. I simply questioned the validity of extrapolating one run of games so quite why he decided to follow it up with the snide remarks again is beyond me. It wasn't a moan, it was an opinion. Seriously, have the humility to just take my opinion on the chin and move on. Your constant sniping at me is tiring. Bizarre.

I think Snowball just had a mental breakdown.

Still, after polite responses from myself and Winch, I think it's pretty evident now where Snowball sits in the grand scheme of this discussion board, simultaneously illustrating his failure to grasp what such a forum involves (it's not about trying to change your mind pal!) as well as showing the contempt he feels.

What a total asshole.

Marvellous. I'm pretty speechless, you will be pleased to hear. Equally rude, arrogant, aggressive, petulant and paranoid, you have zero understanding of what an internet discussion forum is about. People disagree with you, and you turn on them like a Pit Bull whose teeth fell out. Reading your replies is becoming as pitiful as it is startling. Your bile-filled ranting. Utterly pathetic.

Your vindictiveness is worrying bordering on a little insane. I suggest you back off and take a look at some of your posts. You are embarassing yourself. You want to talk about form tables, I'll happily debate their worth until the cows come home. But it seems to me you want to make this personal. It is utterly bizarre.

Still going for the character assassination? Bizarre.

And you need a lesson in chronology. Whilst I’ve written all those things they have all followed your over-reactive, angst-filled replies to my reasonable questions.

[Hoop Blah]

I'd also love to see a stat for the number of times Church has fallen over in front of goal and totally wasted a decent chance before even getting it on or off target.

Apart from Manset he is our best converter of chances (according to the OS)

I'm not really going to get involved in this frankly embarassing borefest, but that's not true.

What the stats record is the number of shots taken* and how many goals are scored from those shots. It doesn't count the number of chances or their actual conversion.

My opinion is that Church fails to get a shot off in a higher percentage of goal scoring opportunities (ie chances) than any of our other forwards. That's wasting a chance even if you don't shoot.


* who decides what is a shot and what isn't leaves their accuracy open to question of course, as we've seen with other parts of the official and unofficial stats the collection is quite often seriously flawed)

[Platypuss]

I'd be more than happy with a front pairing that each scored a goal every 4 games!

[Wimb]

01 18 10-5-3 9 CS 26-14 +12 35 1.94 ppg Reading

KEY

01 Position

18 Played

10-5-3 WDL

CS Clean Sheets

26-14 Goals For-Against

+12 Goal Difference

35 Points

1.94 ppg Points Per game Average
Reading, er, Reading

Cheers!

Yeah they don't look quite as spacious on a 15' screen as a 30'

[leicsRoyal]

I'd be more than happy with a front pairing that each scored a goal every 4 games!

Really?

That won't equate to a great deal over the season, or have I read this wrong?

[cmonurz]

I'd be more than happy with a front pairing that each scored a goal every 4 games!

11/12 goals each a season?

Thought we were aiming higher than that, tbh. We scored 70-odd goals last season, where are the remaining 45 going to come from?

[Platypuss]

Interestingly*, we've not had the best form (in Pts or PpG) in any calendar month this season:

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/teams/Reading.html

[Hoop Blah]

Just a comment on the general theme of 'form', which is a point I've made before.

Form isn't neceessarily something that can or should be measured over a set number of games. There are usually natural or obvious breaks in a teams run of form (a set of fixtures after a specific event, player coming back, or just change in form).

If a team is playing really well for 10 games and picking up results that are similar over that period of time then that's their current form. For another team their current form might only be over the last 3 games because something has suddenly clicked. Their performances and results after that change in form doesn't really effect their current form.

A form table helps to compare a number of recent results between teams to give an idea of who's doing well recently, and who isn't, but it doesn't necessarily reflect their current form because it uses a set number of games which might not be applicable for half the teams.

[Snowball]

Look how Church's 2010-11 League Goals-from-Chances stands up
against Long, Doyle, Gylfi and Kitson over the last four seasons


Deadliness

Goals per Shots

1 in 04.00 - - 06 Goals from 024 Attempts - - 2011-12 Church
1 in 04.11 - - 18 Goals from 074 Attempts - - 2008-09 Doyle <<<<<<<<<
1 in 04.54 - - 21 Goals from 095 Attempts - - 2010-11 Shane <<<<<<<<<
1 in 04.90 - - 10 Goals from 049 Attempts - - 2007-08 Kitson <<<<<<<<<
1 in 05.18 - - 11 Goals from 057 Attempts - - 2008-09 Hunt
1 in 05.50 - - 10 Goals from 055 Attempts - - 2009-10 Church
1 in 06.33 - - 06 Goals from 038 Attempts - - 2009-10 Shane
1 in 06.81 - - 16 Goals from 109 Attempts - - 2009-10 Gylfi <<<<<<<<<<
1 in 11.10 - - 06 Goals from 067 Attempts - - 2007-08 Doyle <<<<<<<<<

Church's Goals are lower than might be expected because

(a) He has played fewer minutes. By the end of the season he will have played half to two-thirds of Long or Doyle's full seasons
(b) We are playing a far tighter style resulting in fewer goals conceded but 1.5 fewer chances per game.


I'm really surprised by these figures. I am NOT a fan of Church
but if you look at his minutes per goal and shooting efficiency
he compares very well with Long, with Doyle, with Gylfi, and Kitson 2007-08

[leicsRoyal]

Or,

Church has less goals as he rarely gets himself in a position, with the ball, to shoot.

Church works hard off the ball but is not smart enough as a footballer, certainly not a centre forward. He spends too much time chasing lost causes and closing down defenders who were going nowhere anyway.

Sometimes the best movement from a goalscorer is no movement. If you a running around like a lunatic, you are not only out of position much of the time but you are also out of the position that your fellow players would be looking for you to be in.

[cmonurz]

Or,

Church has less goals as he rarely gets himself in a position, with the ball, to shoot.

Church works hard off the ball but is not smart enough as a footballer, certainly not a centre forward. He spends too much time chasing lost causes and closing down defenders who were going nowhere anyway.

Sometimes the best movement from a goalscorer is no movement. If you a running around like a lunatic, you are not only out of position much of the time but you are also out of the position that your fellow players would be looking for you to be in.

^This.

Michael Owen, or Jamie Cureton for Reading, were so deadly because they made the right movement at the right time. Cureton could hardly ever been accused of running around much.

[Bandini]

What is Federici's goals per chances ratio?