First place after 10 games

[andrew1957]

We are now guaranteed to be top after the 1st 10 games of the season and I just wondered what effect that would do to our odds of getting promotion at the end of the season and so I have looked back at the last 10 years for guidance and thought this might be of interest to some of you nobbers. The following is the season, the top 2 after 10 games and their final positions in brackets.

2010/11 1/ QPR (1) 2/ Cardiff (4)

2011/12 1/ Southampton (2) 2/ Middlesbrough (7)

2012/13 1/ Cardiff (1) 2/ Leicester (6)

2013/14 1/ Burnley (2) 2/ QPR (4)

2014/15 1/ Norwich (3) 2/ Notts Forest (14)

2015/16 1/ Brighton (3) 2/ Middlesbrough (2)

2016/17 1/ Huddersfield (5) 2/ Norwich (8)

2017/18 1/ Cardiff (2) 2/ Sheffield Unt (10)

2018/19 1/ West Brom (4) 2/ Leeds (13)

2019/20 1/ Swansea (6) 2/ Leeds (1)

The good news is that in every one of the last 10 season the team that is top after 10 games has at minimum made the play offs. And 5 of the 10 have been automatically promoted.

Strangely being 2nd after 10 games is less of an advantage with only two of the 10 being automatically promoted and just four of the others making the play offs.

No guarantees - but based on this we should have a very good chance of at least top 6 this season.

[Mid Sussex Royal]

Interesting but I think this season past stats and history are meaningless given the compressed nature of the games

Because we wasted a Saturday and 4 mid weeks in Sept with a worthless/pointless cup we are now playing twice a week up until the new year and already we are seeing odd results 10 games in that you normally see at the end of the christmas period after a intense run of games.

We are losing players to injury every game now and I expect other sides are also and this will prove a leveller across the league in the run up to christmas

It is anyone's league this season

I don't think the people that set the fixtures, cups etc have any idea now of the level of fitness and recovery times required in modern football.

[andrew1957]

Interesting but I think this season past stats and history are meaningless given the compressed nature of the games

Because we wasted a Saturday and 4 mid weeks in Sept with a worthless/pointless cup we are now playing twice a week up until the new year and already we are seeing odd results 10 games in that you normally see at the end of the christmas period after a intense run of games.

We are losing players to injury every game now and I expect other sides are also and this will prove a leveller across the league in the run up to christmas

It is anyone's league this season

I don't think the people that set the fixtures, cups etc have any idea now of the level of fitness and recovery times required in modern football.

You make good points but as you say all teams will be affected. I think the maths are in favour of the top side after 10 games because if we for example win tomorrow we will be on 25 points after 10 games. This will be better than any other team in the last 10 years except QPR in 2010-11 who had 26 points.

It typically takes a maximum of 76 points to reach the play offs and so 76-25 equals 51 points needed over 36 games or 1.42 points a game average (roughly 2 wins and a draw every 5 games) - which should be doable.

[Mid Sussex Royal]

Interesting but I think this season past stats and history are meaningless given the compressed nature of the games

Because we wasted a Saturday and 4 mid weeks in Sept with a worthless/pointless cup we are now playing twice a week up until the new year and already we are seeing odd results 10 games in that you normally see at the end of the christmas period after a intense run of games.

We are losing players to injury every game now and I expect other sides are also and this will prove a leveller across the league in the run up to christmas

It is anyone's league this season

I don't think the people that set the fixtures, cups etc have any idea now of the level of fitness and recovery times required in modern football.

You make good points but as you say all teams will be affected. I think the maths are in favour of the top side after 10 games because if we for example win tomorrow we will be on 25 points after 10 games. This will be better than any other team in the last 10 years except QPR in 2010-11 who had 26 points.

It typically takes a maximum of 76 points to reach the play offs and so 76-25 equals 51 points needed over 36 games or 1.42 points a game average (roughly 2 wins and a draw every 5 games) - which should be doable.

Sorry - being a bit half glass empty - hope you're right!

[Hound]

We’ve certainly got a good number of points on the board already. 25 after
10 would be a fantastic base for the rest of the season

Can’t see many teams putting together long winning runs as the season goes on tbh for the reasons and schedule stated above

[SouthDownsRoyal]

We are now guaranteed to be top after the 1st 10 games of the season and I just wondered what effect that would do to our odds of getting promotion at the end of the season and so I have looked back at the last 10 years for guidance and thought this might be of interest to some of you nobbers. The following is the season, the top 2 after 10 games and their final positions in brackets.

2010/11 1/ QPR (1) 2/ Cardiff (4)

2011/12 1/ Southampton (2) 2/ Middlesbrough (7)

2012/13 1/ Cardiff (1) 2/ Leicester (6)

2013/14 1/ Burnley (2) 2/ QPR (4)

2014/15 1/ Norwich (3) 2/ Notts Forest (14)

2015/16 1/ Brighton (3) 2/ Middlesbrough (2)

2016/17 1/ Huddersfield (5) 2/ Norwich (8)

2017/18 1/ Cardiff (2) 2/ Sheffield Unt (10)

2018/19 1/ West Brom (4) 2/ Leeds (13)

2019/20 1/ Swansea (6) 2/ Leeds (1)

The good news is that in every one of the last 10 season the team that is top after 10 games has at minimum made the play offs. And 5 of the 10 have been automatically promoted.

Strangely being 2nd after 10 games is less of an advantage with only two of the 10 being automatically promoted and just four of the others making the play offs.

No guarantees - but based on this we should have a very good chance of at least top 6 this season.

Thank you for taking the time to research this

Interesting stats indeed and positive

[Millsy]

Thanks.

Dell or did a similar analysis after fewer games.

One thing that stood out (for me) was how steady and predictable the last 5 years were compared to the preceding 5 years, which seemed very erratic. Not sure why.

You’d hope this year would be like the last 5 but given covid, compression etc chances are it will be erratic.

[Sutekh]

Interesting but I think this season past stats and history are meaningless given the compressed nature of the games

Because we wasted a Saturday and 4 mid weeks in Sept with a worthless/pointless cup we are now playing twice a week up until the new year and already we are seeing odd results 10 games in that you normally see at the end of the christmas period after a intense run of games.

We are losing players to injury every game now and I expect other sides are also and this will prove a leveller across the league in the run up to christmas

It is anyone's league this season

I don't think the people that set the fixtures, cups etc have any idea now of the level of fitness and recovery times required in modern football.

To be fair though, a lot of the damage of too many games in too few days is caused by still having 4 international breaks to allow the pointless Nations League to be played not to mention the utter stupidity of nation FAs adding in additional friendlies for no apparent reason whatsoever meaning some international players having to play 3 games in an international “break”.

That said most clubs outside the PL look like they could still play domestic fixtures if they were allowed as they only have 1 or 2 players being called up.

[Hound]

Thanks.

Dell or did a similar analysis after fewer games.

One thing that stood out (for me) was how steady and predictable the last 5 years were compared to the preceding 5 years, which seemed very erratic. Not sure why.

You’d hope this year would be like the last 5 but given covid, compression etc chances are it will be erratic.

so much depends on luck with injuries i think this year. Lose joao for any period of time and I'd be very worried tbh

[Mid Sussex Royal]

Interesting but I think this season past stats and history are meaningless given the compressed nature of the games

Because we wasted a Saturday and 4 mid weeks in Sept with a worthless/pointless cup we are now playing twice a week up until the new year and already we are seeing odd results 10 games in that you normally see at the end of the christmas period after a intense run of games.

We are losing players to injury every game now and I expect other sides are also and this will prove a leveller across the league in the run up to christmas

It is anyone's league this season

I don't think the people that set the fixtures, cups etc have any idea now of the level of fitness and recovery times required in modern football.

To be fair though, a lot of the damage of too many games in too few days is caused by still having 4 international breaks to allow the pointless Nations League to be played not to mention the utter stupidity of nation FAs adding in additional friendlies for no apparent reason whatsoever meaning some international players having to play 3 games in an international “break”.

That said most clubs outside the PL look like they could still play domestic fixtures if they were allowed as they only have 1 or 2 players being called up.

Agree - can championship clubs reschedule games during an international break if both clubs agree?

[Millsy]

Thanks.

Dell or did a similar analysis after fewer games.

One thing that stood out (for me) was how steady and predictable the last 5 years were compared to the preceding 5 years, which seemed very erratic. Not sure why.

You’d hope this year would be like the last 5 but given covid, compression etc chances are it will be erratic.

so much depends on luck with injuries i think this year. Lose joao for any period of time and I'd be very worried tbh

Good point, agreed.