Where do we go from here 21/22 season?

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URZZZZ
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Re: Where do we go from here 21/22 season?

by URZZZZ » 13 Apr 2021 12:29

Hound
yuomi Good start aside, there are still some pretty big red flags flying when it comes to this team.

Both Brums games, Preston, Stoke and Millwall at home in particular were old school games of the kind we've got much too familiar with in recent years. Add to that Pauno doesn't seem to have a plan b once his game's been worked out (somewhat like a scary bald Dutchman we used to know), and I wonder if we might be heading for more of the same.

Summer will be interesting. Hopeful but not expecting this FFP business to get sorted. Praying that Dai remains interested for another year even after we miss out on promotion. I'd like to see what VP does with regards to recruitment and how he makes this squad his own without the EFL getting in the way.

Hopeful, but not optimistic.


not sure on the plan b. I think we do. We have seen us go long, play 2 up top, change the shape of midfield, put on FBs in wide midfield positions, go 3 at the back. Possibly we make the changes too late, and they haven't always been successful, but I think this is largely as Pauno doesn't trust a lot of the backup

The big red flags for me are the failures to really threaten when we go behind and still losing out to the more direct teams at times, when we really shouldn't be doing so.


I don't particularly agree with the top bit but we've had this discussion a few times now so not going to draw it all up again!

With re to the bottom bit though - away from home I don't think we've lost many against the long ball physical teams:
0-0 at Boro, Stoke, Preston
2-1 win at Cardiff
1-1 at Millwall
1-0 win at Rotherham
Sure, we could do with scoring more against them but the main issue is the home games against those sort of teams, with us losing to all of Boro, Stoke, Preston and Millwall

Would add to your post the problem of conceding quick successive goals which I guess could tie in with the first point - another two in two minutes on Friday

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Re: Where do we go from here 21/22 season?

by Snowball » 13 Apr 2021 12:31

Looking back at those first eight games, remember when we called it "rope a dope", how (apart from the freak Blackburn game) we sat back and soaked up pressure for 30-35 minutes before coming out of our shell.

It was "working" but it looked so dangerous, and I for one was saying, "eventually" someone will go 3-0 up on us before we start playing...." (and we have seen we aren't the league's best at coming from behind...)

If you temporarily exclude the freakish Blackburn game (just temporarily) our average time of first goal was the 50th minute!

40 Derby (45) Derby had 58 % Possession
67 Barnsley (76) Barnsley had a man sent off in first half, then another 77th.
47 Cardiff Cardiff had 53% Possession
41 Watford hadthey 56% Possession
Middlesbrough
63 Wycombe (Wycombe had ten shots, 3 on target. We had one on target)
41 Rotherham ROTHERHAM had 63% Possession

01 Blackburn 66% possession

The first minute goal by Meite at Blackburn (3rd minute equaliser) skews the averages a bit but even with that in, we averaged scoring our first in the 43rd minute.

We scored 5 goals from 4 shots!

Watford dominated the first half and it looked ominous. Amazed to see the Wycombe stats. Remember, too, Colchester doing very well for a fair while and scoring first

The overall quality of our opponents wasn't stellar. Their CURRENT league position:

20 Derby
05 Barnsley
08 Cardiff
02 Watford
10 Middlesbrough
24 Wycombe
22 Rotherham
17 Blackburn

14 Average (today's ranking)

But Barnsley weren't doing well when we played, and Cardiff were meh, on their way to sacking their manager.

Blackburn weren't high-flying but they WERE "scoring for fun"

Overall I think we got lucky and it has distorted our assessment of our quality.

We really "are" a 6-7-8 team. If Barnsley hadn't somehow punched so far above their weight (now a 32 game super-run) we would have managed sixth.

That would have been a BIG ACHIEVEMENT, IMO, considering the last few years.

NEXT season, even with losing Olise (probably) and Richards, things look promising. We start with more expectation.

At the back, I worry a tad that Morro (who Love!) might be reaching his sell-by date, and though I support Moore, I actually think he's a weakness part-covered up by last-ditch heroics. We can do better with an ordinary, experienced CB.

I also think we could do with a big, free-scoring CB like, say the CB at Millwall...

We have some great players and have scored some nice goals, but we DON'T have the grind-it-out mentality required, we can be very fragile, have conceded too many goals at home, too many defeats, we've been too reliant on Joao a player KNOWN for inconsistency, and we always seem to have a blooper in the team.

But (FFP being the unknown), if we have to lose Olise but get 20M, then that's not too bad (if we can keep Swift fit). If we are allowed to spend (from the 20M)... but perhaps next season might be the last throw of the dice. Keep Olise, get a hard-nut LB, a FAST winger, another "9" (and if I could I'd get a war-horse CB).

If we weren't going to try for promotion 2021-22, I'd be happy to see Holmes and McIntyre as a CB pair, but that's probably another season away. (I'd be slightly worried they lack a bit of space).

And we will have to sell Puscas or start using him properly

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Re: Where do we go from here 21/22 season?

by Sanguine » 13 Apr 2021 12:44

We're very much mid-table when it comes to 'points from losing positions'.

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/champio ... sort/siege

Someone mentioned earlier a perception that that had been the case for most teams this season, and the link agrees. Just four teams have secured more than three wins this season from games in which they have gone behind. The table puts us 16th, with only 7 points from 18 games where we have conceded the first goal - but could be re-sorted really on a points per game basis, which would take us higher than the likes of Wycombe (10 points, but from 30 games), Forest, Preston and Blackburn (9 points from losing positions, but more many more games).

In short, it is far from only a Reading problem.

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Re: Where do we go from here 21/22 season?

by Snowflake Royal » 13 Apr 2021 12:51

That was me. There was a point a while back where it seemed to come up for both sides every game in commentary.

It's always going to be a factor, but I stand by the absence of fans having an effect. I think they really can lift a performance to fight back and add urgency and belief.

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Re: Where do we go from here 21/22 season?

by Snowball » 13 Apr 2021 12:52

URZZZZ



Would add to your post the problem of conceding quick successive goals which I guess could tie in with the first point - another two in two minutes on Friday


I took a look. I thought it was worse than this. What would we define as two quick goals? Two in ten minutes?

02 Minutes Watford (Away)
02 Minutes Brentford (Home)
03 Minutes Bournemouth (Away)
04 Minutes Preston (Home)
06 Minutes Brentford Away
07 Minutes BORO (Home)
08 Minutes Birmingham (Home)
09 Minutes Coventry (Away)
09 Minutes Millwall (Home
12 Minutes (Stoke (Home)

Norwich (H) Wasn't a quick capitulation. We had equalised on 15 after going 0-1 down then half out until 55.

Birmingham wasn't a classic "double-blow" but WOW did we get suckered there in the 4th minute

23 76 85 Coventry We had equalised
64 68 92 Preston
23 35 95 Stoke
56 59 77 89 BMTH
29 37 Birmingham (H)
11 55 Norwich We had equalised
11 23 29 Brentford (A)
36 86 88 Brentford (H) We had led 1-0
76 85 Millwall We had led 1-0
22 29 BORO
04 71 Birmingham (A) We had equalised
12 14 Watford


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Re: Where do we go from here 21/22 season?

by Millsy » 13 Apr 2021 13:06

For 21/22 I think it will be a case of avoiding relegation tbh. I don't think they will reach the dizzy heights of 8th again. It'll be a season of trying to stay up, which will mean beating the lower end PL teams as much as we can, and chancing what we can against the top 5 or so. If we can manage that then the following years will be trying to consolidate our position.

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Re: Where do we go from here 21/22 season?

by Snowball » 13 Apr 2021 13:06

Sanguine We're very much mid-table when it comes to 'points from losing positions'.

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/champio ... sort/siege

Someone mentioned earlier a perception that that had been the case for most teams this season, and the link agrees. Just four teams have secured more than three wins this season from games in which they have gone behind. The table puts us 16th, with only 7 points from 18 games where we have conceded the first goal - but could be re-sorted really on a points per game basis, which would take us higher than the likes of Wycombe (10 points, but from 30 games), Forest, Preston and Blackburn (9 points from losing positions, but more many more games).

In short, it is far from only a Reading problem.


There is a very strong correlation between being able to come back from conceding the first goal and being at the top of the table.

Sure a lot of sides are rubbish at it... but that's where READING is, among the riff-raff who are unable to win from behind.

I posted the ppg's

W6 D4 L05 24-22 1.47 ppg Brentford 1 <<<<<<<<< TOP SIX
10/41 W3 D2 L05 10-14 1.10 ppg Norwich 2 <<<<<<<<< TOP SIX
18/41 W4 D4 L10 19-31 0.89 ppg Millwall 3 <<<<<<<<<<< 9th
07/41 W2 D0 L05 05/09 0.86 ppg Watford 4 <<<<<<<<< TOP SIX
14/40 W3 D2 L09 19-25 0.79 ppg Bournemouth 5 <<<<<<<<< TOP SIX
17/41 W4 D1 L12 12-28 0.76 ppg Barnsley 6 <<<<<<<<< TOP SIX

Five of the top six in the league table are also in the best at coming back table. That is hardly coincidence. Brentford have manage 22 points from being 1-0 down, winning six games at an average of 1.5 ppg.

Reading's ONE win puts tham with Cardiff, Stoke, Huddersfield, Forest, Blackburn, Coventry, Birmingham, and just a single win above Rotherham, Derby and Wednesday.

It's clear that GOOD sides (ie top-six) can come back better, whereas average-to-poor sides can't. ALL our failures to come back have been in the 33-game run since our opening blast. We did well in the blast because we scored first.

All these 10 sides have done noticeably better at comebacks

6 Brentford
4 Millwall
4 Barnsley
4 Boro
3 Bournemouth
3 Norwich
3 Bristol
2 Swansea
2 Wycombe
2 Luton
2 Preston

and we are 10th in the league on our last 33 games

Only Swansea (9th at coming back but still in top six)
and Millwall (2nd at coming back and 9th in league)
are counter to intuition

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Re: Where do we go from here 21/22 season?

by Snowball » 13 Apr 2021 13:07

Millsy For 21/22 I think it will be a case of avoiding relegation tbh. I don't think they will reach the dizzy heights of 8th again. It'll be a season of trying to stay up, which will mean beating the lower end PL teams as much as we can, and chancing what we can against the top 5 or so. If we can manage that then the following years will be trying to consolidate our position.


very good

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Re: Where do we go from here 21/22 season?

by Hound » 13 Apr 2021 13:15

URZZZZ With re to the bottom bit though - away from home I don't think we've lost many against the long ball physical teams:
0-0 at Boro, Stoke, Preston
2-1 win at Cardiff
1-1 at Millwall
1-0 win at Rotherham
Sure, we could do with scoring more against them but the main issue is the home games against those sort of teams, with us losing to all of Boro, Stoke, Preston and Millwall


yes thats a good spot. We've actually handled the games away pretty well - add the uber physical Barnsley to that mix as well. Though i suppose you could pick that we've mainly got draws at those teams, with Cardiff very early season

those home defeats have been poor, very poor in fact. Particularly as none of those are especially good teams.


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Re: Where do we go from here 21/22 season?

by Sanguine » 13 Apr 2021 13:31

Snowball. Why do you talk about PPG for the top sides, but then switch to talking about victories when it concerns Reading?

Our PPG where we have gone behind is 0.39 (7 points from 18 games). There are 10 clubs in the division with a worse record than us in that respect. We are very much mid-table with regards coming from behind. So why are you so keen to group us with teams at the bottom?

We get it, we aren't as good as the best sides. That we are still in touch with them however suggests we also suffer fewer poor results than them when we go ahead.

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Re: Where do we go from here 21/22 season?

by Snowball » 13 Apr 2021 13:33

Hound
URZZZZ With re to the bottom bit though - away from home I don't think we've lost many against the long ball physical teams:
0-0 at Boro, Stoke, Preston
2-1 win at Cardiff
1-1 at Millwall
1-0 win at Rotherham
Sure, we could do with scoring more against them but the main issue is the home games against those sort of teams, with us losing to all of Boro, Stoke, Preston and Millwall


yes thats a good spot. We've actually handled the games away pretty well - add the uber physical Barnsley to that mix as well. Though i suppose you could pick that we've mainly got draws at those teams, with Cardiff very early season

those home defeats have been poor, very poor in fact. Particularly as none of those are especially good teams.



But is this us being suckered or sussed?

At their grounds even the long-ball thugs have to try and win, so we have more space to play in. At our place they squeeze the game and can hit us on the break.

We have no real wingers and rarely get in behind defences, so we camp in the last third, get frustrated, lose concentration maybe and then concede a dumb goal.

I think that's my frustration this year. Every time I think, "Here we go" we seem to shoot ourselves in the foot.

Game 9 I thought would be a comfortable win at Coventry

Game 10, slightly nervous but no way did I think Preston would win 0-3

Game 11. No way would we fail to beat a crappy Stoke. OH!

Game 12 Expected to lose at BMTH but then we go in winning 2-0 before imploding

Then we start to build a run, unbeaten in 3

Game 16 Birmingham "Ought to be comfortable", but we blow that one, too

We bounce back Game 17, no disgrace to lose to Norwich 18 and Brentford 19, we beat Luton 20, draw at Swansea 21, win at Huddersfield 22, get revenge on Coventry 23, do OK at Preston, 24, then play great and beat BMTH 25... draw 26 at Stoke = NOW I BELIEVE... OK we got a bit suckered by classy Brentford (meh) 27, but then, even though we went 1-0 up contrive to lose to Millwall at home 28. 29 beating Bristol was par, but then 30 at home to BORO, and then 31 blowing it at Wycombe

get the point? We don't have a divine right to win, but we are like a horse that doesn't like to be in front. As soon as there's clear space we seem to bottle. Time after time. It's almost like we PLANNED to finish 7th.

It's not defeats I object to, it's DUMB defeats, Coventry, Wycombe, Birmingham away, BMTH after being 0-2 up and Preston, Stoke, Boro, Millwall at home. ARGH!

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Re: Where do we go from here 21/22 season?

by Snowball » 13 Apr 2021 13:55

Sanguine Snowball. Why do you talk about PPG for the top sides, but then switch to talking about victories when it concerns Reading?



I have already talked about Reading's PPG and posted a comparison between how we do when scoring first 2.5 ppg) and how we do when conceding first 0.47) (you say 0.39)


Sanguine Our PPG where we have gone behind is 0.39 (7 points from 18 games). There are 10 clubs in the division with a worse record than us in that respect. We are very much mid-table with regards coming from behind. So why are you so keen to group us with teams at the bottom?


TEN clubs worse means we are 14th in the league = BELOW mid table and my point is we CLEARLY don't show enough steel/bottle/nous to be higher.

Not sure why we are quibbling. In terms of fighting back, (wins) we are SIX TIMES worse than Brentford, that shows the gap in class, IMO, and in terms of points worse than three times. That is horrendous for a top-six-chasing side however you want to phrase it.

Sanguine We get it, we aren't as good as the best sides. That we are still in touch with them however suggests we also suffer fewer poor results than them when we go ahead.


That's all I've been saying.

We deserve to be seventh, probably.

Even if one of the current top six "blows" and we sneak into sixth, in truth we are a little bit short. Our MAIN deficiency is our ability to get wins from conceding first. Our second weakness is our stunning ability to concede a second goal soon after the first.

There is no disgrace in finishing 7th. I'm still proud of the side, but on every metric we don't (quite) deserve) to be in the top six

The Current Table.

Including first 8 games, we are 7th, not a good GD, three other sides with games in hand. Likely finishing position 7th

Last 33 Games Form.

Only 44 Points = Equivalent of a 61 point-season

Come-Back Table

We are very poor at digging out points when conceding first. We are managing this at the level of bottom-half teams, suggesting we are not ready for top six.

Conceding Multiple Goals

Too often for it to be random. Shows lack of leadership or nous. We can be brittle.

Throwing Away Leads Against Better Sides

We led by 2 at Bournemouth, led Brentford, led Millwall but contrived to lose. We also were winning at Barnsley and threw that away points, almost lost!

Equalising but then blowing it.

We got back in the game at Coventry, at home to Norwich, away at Birmingham

This is a lot of failings. We are not yet the finished article. We've missed too many penalties and VG chances. We lack mental strength

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Re: Where do we go from here 21/22 season?

by Hound » 13 Apr 2021 14:05

don't think anyone is really arguing with any of that Snowball

guess a little bit more to it off the pitch - barnsley coming in with a ridiculous run of form and injuries to key players will also contribute to us not being top 6. But I wouldnt argue for a second that if we finish 7th thats probably where we deserve to be and a fair reflection of the season


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Re: Where do we go from here 21/22 season?

by Snowflake Royal » 13 Apr 2021 14:40

Hound don't think anyone is really arguing with any of that Snowball

guess a little bit more to it off the pitch - barnsley coming in with a ridiculous run of form and injuries to key players will also contribute to us not being top 6. But I wouldnt argue for a second that if we finish 7th thats probably where we deserve to be and a fair reflection of the season

Likewise, if we finish 6th without gaining a single further point when going behind, we'll deserve to be 6th. The FL aren't going to take a look at the awfully snowstat attack and go, you know what, yeah down to 15th you go shitters.

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Re: Where do we go from here 21/22 season?

by Sanguine » 13 Apr 2021 15:11

Snowflake Royal
Hound don't think anyone is really arguing with any of that Snowball

guess a little bit more to it off the pitch - barnsley coming in with a ridiculous run of form and injuries to key players will also contribute to us not being top 6. But I wouldnt argue for a second that if we finish 7th thats probably where we deserve to be and a fair reflection of the season

Likewise, if we finish 6th without gaining a single further point when going behind, we'll deserve to be 6th. The FL aren't going to take a look at the awfully snowstat attack and go, you know what, yeah down to 15th you go shitters.


I am off the opinion that league places should be decided on 'last 33 games form'.

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Re: Where do we go from here 21/22 season?

by Snowball » 13 Apr 2021 16:55

Sanguine
Snowflake Royal
Hound don't think anyone is really arguing with any of that Snowball

guess a little bit more to it off the pitch - barnsley coming in with a ridiculous run of form and injuries to key players will also contribute to us not being top 6. But I wouldnt argue for a second that if we finish 7th thats probably where we deserve to be and a fair reflection of the season

Likewise, if we finish 6th without gaining a single further point when going behind, we'll deserve to be 6th. The FL aren't going to take a look at the awfully snowstat attack and go, you know what, yeah down to 15th you go shitters.


I am off the opinion that league places should be decided on 'last 33 games form'.




Oh, I'm not. I have this idea that all games should count.

That doesn't mean that I don't think the second half/two-thirds of the season is a better indication of true-worth by the season's end.

Take it to extremes, a side could amass a shed-load of points then sell all its top players in January, yet still make the POs or automatic despite being (now, relatively) a terrible side.

Second example: it's a commonplace that sides relegated from the Premiership take some time to adapt to the different rigours of the Championship and sometimes start badly before eventually moving up the table as class tells.

And it COULD be, purely by chance that a side gets a string of weak opponents in games 1-8 (for example) and quickly accumulatates points, but then that gets counterbalanced later in the season as they have to play the better and best sides.

Like Reading, say...

I remember, after watching a few Watford games early in the season saying to a mate that if they didn't go up this season that they would probably be Champions next season. They seemed to have loads of class but were a bit "gangly-teenager" and not quite (yet) fully-formed.

On the same basis (excluding new signings, obviously) I expect them to do better than Norwich next season. Norwich were "formed" last year as I see it and without additions are pretty much on their max. Whereas Watford are getting better by the game so the true gap will be closing.

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Re: Where do we go from here 21/22 season?

by Ascotexgunner » 13 Apr 2021 20:41

Why do people keep droning on about Paunovic not having a "plan b"
I mean seriously, how do you make a plan B out of half an injured first team and a bench with 2 expensive flops who should have been drummed out the club years ago. Then there's some players I've never heard of appearing on there. Then theres the fact the only real impact sub Puscas has been injured on and off.
I'd say of the top 7 Paunovic has had the hardest job this season and the worst luck.
Missed open goals and penalties. Not his fault.
Of course he has a plan b but with no squad consistency, losing your most creative player, his job must have been a nightmare at times.

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Re: Where do we go from here 21/22 season?

by Zip » 13 Apr 2021 20:59

When you look at the League table we are seven points clear of Cardiff. We could end up coming close to Wolves record of being the team with the most points not to make the play offs.
Wolves finished with 78 points.

The point about Barnsley’s ridiculous form is a good one. For most of the season the top six included us and the common view was that these six would be in the play offs. Had it not been for their incredible run of form that view would have been upheld. Very frustrating.

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Re: Where do we go from here 21/22 season?

by Getthebeerens » 13 Apr 2021 21:05

With tonight’s results I think the play-off dream is now over. We would need to win 5 out of 5 and I can’t see that happening. No idea why I crave finishing 6th place so that we can get beat by Brentford twice more.

So onto next season......

As long as Mr Dai doesn’t do anything silly we will have a manager for the first time in ages who has served a whole season in charge at Reading FC. Personally I think this can have a massive impact on us progressing forward. We have a manager who now knows the squads strengths and weaknesses and we already have a style of play implemented. No more clicking the reset button at the end of each season and having a big squad clear out and rebuild.

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Re: Where do we go from here 21/22 season?

by Lower West » 13 Apr 2021 21:41

Snowflake Royal That was me. There was a point a while back where it seemed to come up for both sides every game in commentary.

It's always going to be a factor, but I stand by the absence of fans having an effect. I think they really can lift a performance to fight back and add urgency and belief.


The away team "advantage" will disappear once fans come back. Teams that soak up pressure and control the game will again dominate.

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