THE BETTING THREAD

[double d]

Hows it going TF? Any bets tonight.

[Top Flight]

No. I didn't bet last night. Betting against Reading was probably the best move but I didn't take it.
I was close to backing Barca at 1.4 but with no Suárez or Neymar or Iniesta or Alves and them already being 2 up from the first leg, I decided not to risk it.

[Pepe the Horseman]

No. I didn't bet last night. Betting against Reading was probably the best move but I didn't take it.
I was close to backing Barca at 1.4 but with no Suárez or Neymar or Iniesta or Alves and them already being 2 up from the first leg, I decided not to risk it.

Good call.

[BR2]

At 54 minutes last night in our game I had a decent bet on there being more than 3.5 goals at 4/6.
Then at 80 minutes when it was 3-1 (thinking in terms of about 15 minutes still to play) backed over 4.5 goals at 5/2 and just as I pressed the button it became 11/4 so even better.

I didn't want to do a Judas bet so this type of punt covers either team scoring.
With Postponed winning at York (before it wins The Arc in October- on at 5/1) it was a good betting day even if it would have been better if Reading had been scoring the goals.

[Top Flight]

Anyone betting on Astra V West Ham tonight?

Will West Ham come away with the win? I haven't been that impressed with the Hammers from what I have seen of them so far in pre season and new season.

[Sanguine]

Anyone betting on Astra V West Ham tonight?

Will West Ham come away with the win? I haven't been that impressed with the Hammers from what I have seen of them so far in pre season and new season.

Tell me about FC Astra Giurgiu.

[Top Flight]

Anyone betting on Astra V West Ham tonight?

Will West Ham come away with the win? I haven't been that impressed with the Hammers from what I have seen of them so far in pre season and new season.

Tell me about FC Astra Giurgiu.

They have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their opening fixtures in the top flight of Romanian football. They sit bang in mid table.

Steau Bucharest who got absolutely thrashed by City the other night have won all of their opening games in contrast.

It looks like Astra are fairly average. West Ham are half decent. But I'm not confident West Ham will win at Astra's small 8,500 stadium tonight. Astra knocked West Ham out of the Europa League at this same stage last season.

Do West Ham care enough? Are they out seeking revenge? I'm not sure...

[Sanguine]

I meant stuff that you didn't have to Google.

You know where I'm going with this.

[Top Flight]

Yeah... Well I certainly haven't watched Romanian football.

I don't know anything else about this team other than their stats. I think they will be highly motivated to get past the Hammers though. This competition must be exciting and big for them. I don't know whether West Ham care enough about this though. Do they want European nights at their new stadium with the restricted views?

[Sanguine]

Yeah... Well I certainly haven't watched Romanian football.

I don't know anything else about this team other than their stats. I think they will be highly motivated to get past the Hammers though. This competition must be exciting and big for them. I don't know whether West Ham care enough about this though. Do they want European nights at their new stadium with the restricted views?

M8, as I said on the last page, look at how you are evaluating this stuff. Do you think Michael Antonio and Adrian and Dmitri Payet wonder whether or not they 'want European nights at their new stadium?' They just go out there and try to win the game.

[Hendo]

Top Flight is starting to sound like the god awful nobs on that UniBet advert

[Top Flight]

OK, so there is nothing wrong with their motivations. They are priced at 1.8 on the Betfair exchange.

They should be good enough to win at Astra. I think it hinges on whether Payet plays. The Hammers didn't offer much going forward against Chelsea at the Bridge and they had a poor pre season. They haven't played well yet, I don't think.

If Payet plays, I think they have a 50/50 chance of getting the away win. Priced at 1.8 that should represent a good bet. I'm sure Astra are massively inferior to West Ham in terms of their players. But they will be highly motivated and will fight for everything and make life very difficult.

[Sanguine]

I think they have a 50/50 chance of getting the away win. Priced at 1.8 that should represent a good bet.

Then - if you are trying to be a 'good better' and aren't just betting for fun - you should close your account immediately. You don't understand the maths.

If you think they are 50/50 to win, then by definition you expect that if they played the game twice they would win once.

So game 1, you back them to win at 1.80, and they win. Your £1 is now £1.80. Profit 80p.
Game 2, you back them to win at 1.80, and they don't win. You lose your £1.
Total loss is 20p.

In short, a 50/50 shot will win 50% of the time, so you need odds better than Evens for it to be a value bet.

Edit: I'm realised you're just trolling me. Surely. Well played.

[Top Flight]

No, I wasn't trolling you....

So that is not a good bet really. It might be an inplay option if West Ham come out strong and it looks like they have a better than 50/50 chance to win. Pre-match and not knowing the respective line-ups and the attitude of the players means that it is not a bet I should execute now. I guess it is a wait and see.

Thanks for illustrating the maths to me. Schoolboy error from me. I should have known that really.

[double d]

CLOSE YOUR ACCOUNT!!!!!!!

[Sanguine]

TF - if it was not a good value bet pre-game then it is an even worse in-play option if you want to back West Ham, since they would have dived to 1.3 or so as soon as the goal went in.

And indeed, had you then piled in in-play, you'd have lost your money.

I'd start treating betting as a bit of fun, like the (most of) rest of us.

[double d]

Gone IBRA score 1st and Man United to win 2-0, also Man United -1 handicap single

[Top Flight]

Don't worry, I didn't bet on it. I don't trust West Ham at all this season. They have looked poor in every game so far.
I didn't bet on anything yesterday. I'm saving it for the weekend. But even this weekend, I don't see any clear opportunities that I like the look of.

What do you think of the United / Southampton game tonight?

I think United are priced around 1.45 to win it. The Saints have lost some talented players over the summer. But they always seem to bounce back when they lose great players and find even better ones. I should follow the advise of waiting until 4 weeks in to the season to see how the Saints are performing.

[Top Flight]

TF - if it was not a good value bet pre-game then it is an even worse in-play option if you want to back West Ham, since they would have dived to 1.3 or so as soon as the goal went in.

And indeed, had you then piled in in-play, you'd have lost your money.

I'd start treating betting as a bit of fun, like the (most of) rest of us.

I am treating it as fun. The fun is, can I turn £100 into £1000 over the season. That's the fun. That is not going to replace my income and become my main job. It's just a challenge. I want to see if I can do it or not. Every time I get close, I seem to make horrendous mistakes. I just want to try and develop some rules and the discipline to stick to the rules, not chase losses etc. It's a kind of character development in a way. Can I conquer those human emotions of fear and greed. Can I control myself to see it through.

[Sanguine]

Can I conquer those human emotions of fear and greed. Can I control myself to see it through.

The answer is no.
Because when you say 'I make a mistake', what you mean is 'I lose my money'. Backing the wrong horse is not 'a mistake', you are gambling, taking a chance. For the third time, people who backed Manchester City to win the league last season are not 'bad' at betting.

If there was a formula, we'd all use it, and all be rich.