by URZZZZ » 13 May 2019 15:21
by Hoop Blah » 13 May 2019 15:29
Silver Fox Poor old sandman, he must have had a terrible time this season
It's not luck when otherwise decent keepers drop clangers, it's a result of being put under massive amounts of pressure. Was it Jack Nicklaus that said "the more I practice the luckier I get"?
by sandman » 13 May 2019 15:34
Silver Fox Poor old sandman, he must have had a terrible time this season
It's not luck when otherwise decent keepers drop clangers, it's a result of being put under massive amounts of pressure. Was it Jack Nicklaus that said "the more I practice the luckier I get"?
by BR0B0T » 13 May 2019 16:04
Hoop BlahBR0B0TSilver Fox You could say the entire season hinged on two shots that hit the post differently the game between City and Liverpool at the etihad, City's hit the post and went in, Liverpool's hit the post and came out (also somehow missing the incoming Salah) Neither team were lucky to finish where they did, but those 2 bounces certainly favoured City.
I'm sure people will come up with examples where Liverpool got the luck but it's not really a debate worth having so don't bother. There were 2 excellent teams and one of them got a point more and thus deserved the title.
Certain teams do get more 'luck', defo felt that sometimes when United were battling Arsenal in the 90's
Got any irrefutable stats to back that up, otherwise speculation.
by URZZZZ » 13 May 2019 16:29
sandmanSilver Fox Poor old sandman, he must have had a terrible time this season
It's not luck when otherwise decent keepers drop clangers, it's a result of being put under massive amounts of pressure. Was it Jack Nicklaus that said "the more I practice the luckier I get"?
Pickford in particular was never under any pressure come on that ball was sailing over with no one around him.
Liverpool had a lot of luck. I've not denigrated them at all, I said they earned their points, so why the personal attacks? They've proven themselves to be a good team.
I hope you win the CL if only to stop you going on and on about Ramos.
I'm just stating, as one of your former managers may say, "facts".
by Hoop Blah » 13 May 2019 16:46
BR0B0T yep basic binomial distribution...lucky or unlucky
Big shout out to Jacob on that btw!
by BR0B0T » 13 May 2019 17:18
Hoop BlahBR0B0T yep basic binomial distribution...lucky or unlucky
Big shout out to Jacob on that btw!
Go on then....
by Hoop Blah » 13 May 2019 17:22
BR0B0T bonjour!
by Sanguine » 13 May 2019 17:42
sandmanSilver Fox Poor old sandman, he must have had a terrible time this season
It's not luck when otherwise decent keepers drop clangers, it's a result of being put under massive amounts of pressure. Was it Jack Nicklaus that said "the more I practice the luckier I get"?
Pickford in particular was never under any pressure come on that ball was sailing over with no one around him.
Liverpool had a lot of luck. I've not denigrated them at all, I said they earned their points, so why the personal attacks? They've proven themselves to be a good team.
I hope you win the CL if only to stop you going on and on about Ramos.
I'm just stating, as one of your former managers may say, "facts".
by stealthpapes » 14 May 2019 16:26
by Ascotexgunner » 14 May 2019 19:21
by stealthpapes » 15 May 2019 11:30
BR0B0THoop BlahBR0B0T yep basic binomial distribution...lucky or unlucky
Big shout out to Jacob on that btw!
Go on then....
bonjour!
by Hoop Blah » 15 May 2019 11:39
Hoop BlahOld Man Andrews Look at the stats, it was easy as it comes. Just because they didn't take their chances it doesn't mean they weren't extremely comfortable. Maybe try a new sport, football isn't for you.
Having watched most of the game and seen their goal that only just crossed the line, I'd say it was anything but an easy as it comes win. They could easily have drawn that game whereas against United it was a more comfortable win.
In a season of fine margins, it's interesting to note that City might win the league thanks to two goal line decisions that went their way (correctly) thanks to the technology which, in previous season, might not have gone their way.
Liverpool had that chance that fell just 11mm short of crossing the line in the game at Ethiad, and yesterday City's goal stood thanks to the technology knowing it had crossed the line by 29mm before being cleared. I don't think City's goal would've been given by a lino (before the technology) because of the way it was cleared and the ball being a couple of feet in the air making it even harder to see if it had cleared the line or not.
by John Smith » 15 May 2019 11:40
stealthpapesBR0B0THoop Blah
Go on then....
bonjour!
not that I find a certain satisfaction in thinking this type of thing through, but to model it, I'd assume
* a power law relationship between severity of injury and likelihood of happening - small knocks happen often, serious injuries are rare.
[this could be tested and generated quite easily, I think, the data is surely out there].
*some amount of thresholding - injuries below a certain level are tapered to have less effect i.e. a knock on the leg that can be run off and does not require a substitution.
So 'luckiness' wrt injury can then be identified in two places - how effective the club is in preparation and medical staff by the behaviour at one end of the power-law curve - the better fitness, S&C staff and medical team will lead to a lower effect of the high probability incidents, while 'unluckiness' would be seen in the number of low-probability, high impact injury events.
by stealthpapes » 15 May 2019 11:42
by Whore Jackie » 23 May 2019 12:23
by Winston Biscuit » 01 Aug 2019 13:44
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