CONFRIMED: Latest rumours Confrimed as Unconfrimed

[Greatwesternline]

I think I got us off topic . . .

So, with regards to the Chinese bank thing - James Earnshaw says that it's not a concern, and that's good enough for me.

My thoughts though are that the bank might be using the asset to basically blackmail Dai into paying back as much of the £55m as possible. I don't think any buyer is going to sign a deal that doesn't have ownership (or at least continued use) of the stadium guaranteed at a set price. The bank (from the sounds of it) has the ability to deny that. So, they can say to Dai "We're not going to allow any deal to go through unless the vast majority of proceeds come back to us. Not just the stadium value, pretty much everything you get." What would Dai then be able to do?

Maybe the bank doesn't have that control though if we're saying their no longer a barrier to the deal going through.

These are my thoughts. Someone with a charge of the stadium can prevent the sale of the stadium. That's the point of the charge. Why might they prevent the sale? Because they want their money back in full and they are not happy with the sale price of the stadium.

If Dai sells the club for £30m but says £29m is for the club, and only £1m is for the stadium, the person with a charge over the stadium will veto that sale, because they think the stadium they have a charge over is worth £25m of the £30m consideration.

We are all armchair analysts at this point, but a 3rd party with charges over our stadium, and an owner with bigger debts to pay than the value of the stadium, is a very icky situation indeed.

[Hound]

Can the bank force him to sell to pay this chunk back though? Suppose the worry from people who are completely out of the know like myself is Dai just won’t bother selling if he knows he isn’t getting any of the money. Will keep hanging on on the off chance we do an Ipswich and he can sell for big money

[morganb]

A couple of random thoughts on the Couhig deal falling through -

- Do you think the rumour of him only offering £8 million would be his offer price minus the stadium?

- Due to his links with Wycombe, would he have considered a ground share if he couldn't get control of the SCL

[Sutekh]

I think I got us off topic . . .

So, with regards to the Chinese bank thing - James Earnshaw says that it's not a concern, and that's good enough for me.

My thoughts though are that the bank might be using the asset to basically blackmail Dai into paying back as much of the £55m as possible. I don't think any buyer is going to sign a deal that doesn't have ownership (or at least continued use) of the stadium guaranteed at a set price. The bank (from the sounds of it) has the ability to deny that. So, they can say to Dai "We're not going to allow any deal to go through unless the vast majority of proceeds come back to us. Not just the stadium value, pretty much everything you get." What would Dai then be able to do?

Maybe the bank doesn't have that control though if we're saying their no longer a barrier to the deal going through.

Was this bank loan he got to allow him to put money into the club or was it used for his other business concerns or for personal use? If not the former it doesn't strike me as particularly right or ethical that business rules allow someone to utilise assets from one business stream on anything other than that business stream. But then the business and finance worlds are probably a moral-less law unto themselves.

[Crusader Royal]

A couple of random thoughts on the Couhig deal falling through -

- Do you think the rumour of him only offering £8 million would be his offer price minus the stadium?

- Due to his links with Wycombe, would he have considered a ground share if he couldn't get control of the SCL

I doubt the EFL would agree a deal in which the new owner had no stadium for his team to play in. A groundshare with another league club would be an absolute scheduling nightmare meaning potentially 7 or 8 games being played in an 8 day period on an ongoing basis. I doubt any grass pitch would do well under that load and just one week of postponements would be catastrophic
And that is before you look at the fact that the tenant club would lose a large revenue stream from an already difficult budget.

And yes, an offer of £8million excluding the stadium seems right but he would have to be pretty certain he could then negotiate a purchase from the bank at a realistic figure.

[Snowflake Royal]

A couple of random thoughts on the Couhig deal falling through -

- Do you think the rumour of him only offering £8 million would be his offer price minus the stadium?

- Due to his links with Wycombe, would he have considered a ground share if he couldn't get control of the SCL

I doubt the EFL would agree a deal in which the new owner had no stadium for his team to play in. A groundshare with another league club would be an absolute scheduling nightmare meaning potentially 7 or 8 games being played in an 8 day period on an ongoing basis. I doubt any grass pitch would do well under that load and just one week of postponements would be catastrophic
And that is before you look at the fact that the tenant club would lose a large revenue stream from an already difficult budget.

And yes, an offer of £8million excluding the stadium seems right but he would have to be pretty certain he could then negotiate a purchase from the bank at a realistic figure.

When you factor he'd already put in £5m the £8m seems less ludicrous... that would be £13m and I think there was some talk of him have worked the purchase figure down to about £15m due to the absolute shit show the club's finances and situation are in. So staging some follow up payments would also make sense.

[Hound]

A couple of random thoughts on the Couhig deal falling through -

- Do you think the rumour of him only offering £8 million would be his offer price minus the stadium?

- Due to his links with Wycombe, would he have considered a ground share if he couldn't get control of the SCL

I doubt the EFL would agree a deal in which the new owner had no stadium for his team to play in. A groundshare with another league club would be an absolute scheduling nightmare meaning potentially 7 or 8 games being played in an 8 day period on an ongoing basis. I doubt any grass pitch would do well under that load and just one week of postponements would be catastrophic
And that is before you look at the fact that the tenant club would lose a large revenue stream from an already difficult budget.

And yes, an offer of £8million excluding the stadium seems right but he would have to be pretty certain he could then negotiate a purchase from the bank at a realistic figure.

When you factor he'd already put in £5m the £8m seems less ludicrous... that would be £13m and I think there was some talk of him have worked the purchase figure down to about £15m due to the absolute shit show the club's finances and situation are in. So staging some follow up payments would also make sense.

Yes suggested that one earlier. With later negotiations with dai/the bank to get the stadium at a later date. Would make some sense if complicated

[tmesis]

I mean, if a borrower puts an asset up for collateral against a loan, and the loan defaulted, isn’t the whole point that the asset now belongs to the loaner?

In which case I don’t see Dai being in limbo, here. Surely the bank owns the stadium and will just want to sell it, at cost, to a potential buyer. In which case, why would they scupper the deal? Dai wants £x for what he owns (which would exclude the stadium) and the bank wants £y for the stadium, so the total cost for a buyer is £x+y.

So surely the problem is either Dai or the bank asking for more than Couhig wanted to pay for it, not that the bank stepped in and blocked the sale from happening. So my money is on Dai’s valuation including a stadium he doesn’t actually own anymore, and Couhig finding out last minute.

I'd guess the bank weren't happy with Dai selling the asset used as collateral, because regardless of the sale price, there's nothing they can do to make Dai pay the money he received for the sale.

Dai defaulting and the stadium becoming property of the bank might actually be a better scenario, as they would probably look to a quick sale, like a bank would with a repossessed house. The downside of that is that the buyer might not be someone we'd want to own the stadium.

[Lower West]

I think I got us off topic . . .

So, with regards to the Chinese bank thing - James Earnshaw says that it's not a concern, and that's good enough for me.

My thoughts though are that the bank might be using the asset to basically blackmail Dai into paying back as much of the £55m as possible. I don't think any buyer is going to sign a deal that doesn't have ownership (or at least continued use) of the stadium guaranteed at a set price. The bank (from the sounds of it) has the ability to deny that. So, they can say to Dai "We're not going to allow any deal to go through unless the vast majority of proceeds come back to us. Not just the stadium value, pretty much everything you get." What would Dai then be able to do?

Maybe the bank doesn't have that control though if we're saying their no longer a barrier to the deal going through.

There's no blackmail. As I posted previously in detail . Dai is in deep deep trouble back home. This news simply reinforces the fact that Dai lost control of the situation a long time ago. The NDA's have created a news void. Which has resulted in the continual belief that it's Dai being difficult. Which isn't the case.

[Lower West]

A couple of random thoughts on the Couhig deal falling through -

- Do you think the rumour of him only offering £8 million would be his offer price minus the stadium?

- Due to his links with Wycombe, would he have considered a ground share if he couldn't get control of the SCL

Would also be minus the training facility at that price. Other complications could be with the hotel ownership which is in effect an integral part of the stadium. Also who owns the remainder of the land around the ground.

The football club is the easy part as in essence worth next to nothing. Agreeing a rent on the stadium / training ground are more likely the major stumbling blocks. To recoup their money creditors in China may well taking a hard nosed approach. A structured deal which would see the creditors receive more if the club were to be promoted to the Championship or with an element based on attendances. Be a huge disincentive to Couhig's backers. Akin to a millstone. They were buying into the club for the potential riches of the Premiership in the longer term.

[SouthDownsRoyal]

Hopefully, I have copied the link ok. This fella on x seems to know what he’s talking about.
https://x.com/b_c411

Just clicked the link and this was my exact feeling reading it

Drivel

[Linden Jones' Tash]

I guess my question, given that the football club aspect appears to be a pawn in a larger game, is:

- Who is now leaking this information?

(given the loan seems to date from 2017/18 when the stadium was sold to fudge the accounts)

- Who gains anything from this information being passed onto English Journalists...

- What is their agenda?

[Sutekh]

Haitong will seek the best pricing they can for the stadium, the best price they can realise for the ground is through the sale of the club as a whole. If they have ideas of trying to sale the club assets piecemeal, they won't get more than the total value of selling the club as a going concern.

Given they are an investment bank and do not have a property management presence in the UK they're not really going to be interested in having to look after club assets in this country so, equally, will want this sale concluded asap. Therefore can only presume they were not happy with the agreed sale price which is why the stopped it.

Therefore it seems likely to be Haitong that have the final say on what the club is sold for as the monies Dai receives will actually all go to them to offset the debt that he owes and then Dai will have to seek to sell his other properties (ie that luxury flat thing in London) to try and find the balance.

[Elm Park Kid]

I guess my question, given that the football club aspect appears to be a pawn in a larger game, is:

- Who is now leaking this information?

(given the loan seems to date from 2017/18 when the stadium was sold to fudge the accounts)

- Who gains anything from this information being passed onto English Journalists...

- What is their agenda?

Could I suggest maybe a former potential buyer who is hoping to scupper the current sale process so that they can swoop back in at some point . . . .

[SCIAG]

Issue with town centre is it is so heavy penned in. If you look at the IDR, it basically creates a wall/border around a densely populated area. Even just outside this and you are met with residential/office areas or road networks which can't be moved.

On top of the Broad Street Mall car park would be cool.
Two years of construction chaos might be an issue.
You’ve already got Blue Collar set up close by for food.

Could do it on top of the train station. Fans could buy their food from WHSmiths and commuters would be protected from the rain all year round. The only downsides would be huge expense, safety risks, massive inconvenience, and years of disruption on the GWR.

[Sutekh]

Prison's gone hasn't it? Knock that down and use that site, be right between Reading's most historic sites the Abbey and gardens and the biscuit factory. That'll really show up the idiots who decided to put the town's ring road in the centre of the town and call it an IDR.

[Crusader Royal]

Prison's gone hasn't it? Knock that down and use that site, be right between Reading's most historic sites the Abbey and gardens and the biscuit factory. That'll really show up the idiots who decided to put the town's ring road in the centre of the town and call it an IDR.

Aren’t most of the shops in Broad Street empty these days ? Any mileage in just clearing Broad Street and putting a new ground right in the epicentre of the town ? If they hadn’t done away with the little kiosk with the electronic ‘doughnuts’ voice it could do a roaring trade in fan food.
Only problem would be the number of beggars that would lose their pitches and the lack of decent pubs nearby.

[tmesis]

Haitong will seek the best pricing they can for the stadium, the best price they can realise for the ground is through the sale of the club as a whole. If they have ideas of trying to sale the club assets piecemeal, they won't get more than the total value of selling the club as a going concern.

Given they are an investment bank and do not have a property management presence in the UK they're not really going to be interested in having to look after club assets in this country so, equally, will want this sale concluded asap. Therefore can only presume they were not happy with the agreed sale price which is why the stopped it.

Therefore it seems likely to be Haitong that have the final say on what the club is sold for as the monies Dai receives will actually all go to them to offset the debt that he owes and then Dai will have to seek to sell his other properties (ie that luxury flat thing in London) to try and find the balance.

I would suspect all they can block is sale of the stadium, not the rest of the club. I believe you need to have permission to sell an asset a loan is secured against, as that's the lender's protection.

The bank would need some sort of guarantee that any money received would go to them. At this stage I doubt they'd take Dai's word for it. It's also possible that they'd block any sale that doesn't result in them getting paid in full, or they'd be turning a £55 million secured loan into a £25 million unsecured one (if getting £30 million for the stadium).

Obviously, I can't claim any expertise in the area, but I don't think I'm overreaching to say it's all something of a mess.

[Sutekh]

Haitong will seek the best pricing they can for the stadium, the best price they can realise for the ground is through the sale of the club as a whole. If they have ideas of trying to sale the club assets piecemeal, they won't get more than the total value of selling the club as a going concern.

Given they are an investment bank and do not have a property management presence in the UK they're not really going to be interested in having to look after club assets in this country so, equally, will want this sale concluded asap. Therefore can only presume they were not happy with the agreed sale price which is why the stopped it.

Therefore it seems likely to be Haitong that have the final say on what the club is sold for as the monies Dai receives will actually all go to them to offset the debt that he owes and then Dai will have to seek to sell his other properties (ie that luxury flat thing in London) to try and find the balance.

I would suspect all they can block is sale of the stadium, not the rest of the club. I believe you need to have permission to sell an asset a loan is secured against, as that's the lender's protection.

The bank would need some sort of guarantee that any money received would go to them. At this stage I doubt they'd take Dai's word for it. It's also possible that they'd block any sale that doesn't result in them getting paid in full, or they'd be turning a £55 million secured loan into a £25 million unsecured one (if getting £30 million for the stadium).

Obviously, I can't claim any expertise in the area, but I don't think I'm overreaching to say it's all something of a mess.

According to a chap on BBC Berks on Friday (Reading fan who is also a debt restructuring expert), Haitong may well also have a guarantee of payment from the Reading Football Club entity itself which means they would have recourse to all the other assets owned by the club. Therefore it would seem Dai has weaved a quite spectacular unattractive pile of **** for prospective buyers to pick through. If Haitong are flexible about things, realising that allowing the sale of the club is the only way to maximise return for the loan on the stadium, then hopefully things will progress. Problem will be if they refuse to allow the stadium sale (as that sale will turn any outstanding debt into an unsecured loan) therefore Dai may well be forced into selling other assets of "his", separate to Reading, so that the shortfall is made up at the same time as the stadium sale.

It's all very messy and the only good thing is that this is all now out there and known to prospective buyers so guess it's all down to how flexible Haitong are and how much the buyers want the club. One thing, any buyer who manages to negotiate the club out of this and put all the assets back together again really must want the club and then should be lauded for creating a Dunkirk style escape.

[tmesis]

Haitong will seek the best pricing they can for the stadium, the best price they can realise for the ground is through the sale of the club as a whole. If they have ideas of trying to sale the club assets piecemeal, they won't get more than the total value of selling the club as a going concern.

Given they are an investment bank and do not have a property management presence in the UK they're not really going to be interested in having to look after club assets in this country so, equally, will want this sale concluded asap. Therefore can only presume they were not happy with the agreed sale price which is why the stopped it.

Therefore it seems likely to be Haitong that have the final say on what the club is sold for as the monies Dai receives will actually all go to them to offset the debt that he owes and then Dai will have to seek to sell his other properties (ie that luxury flat thing in London) to try and find the balance.

I would suspect all they can block is sale of the stadium, not the rest of the club. I believe you need to have permission to sell an asset a loan is secured against, as that's the lender's protection.

The bank would need some sort of guarantee that any money received would go to them. At this stage I doubt they'd take Dai's word for it. It's also possible that they'd block any sale that doesn't result in them getting paid in full, or they'd be turning a £55 million secured loan into a £25 million unsecured one (if getting £30 million for the stadium).

Obviously, I can't claim any expertise in the area, but I don't think I'm overreaching to say it's all something of a mess.

According to a chap on BBC Berks on Friday (Reading fan who is also a debt restructuring expert), Haitong may well also have a guarantee of payment from the Reading Football Club entity itself which means they would have recourse to all the other assets owned by the club. Therefore it would seem Dai has weaved a quite spectacular unattractive pile of **** for prospective buyers to pick through. If Haitong are flexible about things, realising that allowing the sale of the club is the only way to maximise return for the loan on the stadium, then hopefully things will progress. Problem will be if they refuse to allow the stadium sale (as that sale will turn any outstanding debt into an unsecured loan) therefore Dai may well be forced into selling other assets of "his", separate to Reading, so that the shortfall is made up at the same time as the stadium sale.

It's all very messy and the only good thing is that this is all now out there and known to prospective buyers so guess it's all down to how flexible Haitong are and how much the buyers want the club. One thing, any buyer who manages to negotiate the club out of this and put all the assets back together again really must want the club and then should be lauded for creating a Dunkirk style escape.

Given that Dai seems to owe at least £500 million elsewhere, for those Evergrande shares he bought (now worth about £5) you would hope that they would see that getting the full amount back is unrealistic, but who knows?