Worst start for many years.

andrew1957
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Worst start for many years.

by andrew1957 » 02 Oct 2019 11:17

Just thought it was worth flagging up that this is the worst start by a Reading F C squad for many years. After 10 games we managed 9 points in each of the last two seasons - whereas this year we are at 8.

Statistically it also means that we are unlikely to recover very much. Last season 11 of the 12 sides in the bottom half after game 10 finished in the bottom half after game 46. Only Villa moved up from (15th to play offs). All the other 11 struggled all season. This is fairly typical of most recent seasons. The first 10 league games pretty much set the table for the season.

All I can say in defence of this squad is that we do seem to have had a tough start in that most of the 10 sides we have played so far are towards the top of the table.

I was genuinely hopeful this season would be an improvement but statistically another season of struggle is now the most likely outcome.

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Re: Worst start for many years.

by windermereROYAL » 02 Oct 2019 11:37

Checking the fixtures from the start of November to the new year we have many more games that are winnable , if there is ever such a thing with us, just needs to scratch a few points together if possible during this month, will almost certainly be bottom 3 by the end of it.

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Re: Worst start for many years.

by WestYorksRoyal » 02 Oct 2019 11:49

It's woeful. What makes it so disappointing many of us genuinely thought we had turned the corner. Last year, we had a shambles of a pre season and uninspiring signings; we all knew we were in for a long, tough season.

Then Gourlay was sacked, we finished last season positively, had a genuinely exciting transfer window followed by a glorious week against Cardiff, WBA and Huddersfield. We all thought these times were over. The simple reality is, everything at this club is set up better than 12 months ago. We should be comfortably higher in the table and there are no excuses. The one upside is that these are easier issues to fix. A bit more organisational and a better way of setting up the team should be enough with this squad.

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Re: Worst start for many years.

by Sanguine » 02 Oct 2019 12:10

As above, it is worth pointing out that we have played five of the early top eight in the table, and only three in the bottom half, one of whom is 13th placed Cardiff, and another a strangely struggling Middlesbrough.

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Green
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Re: Worst start for many years.

by Green » 02 Oct 2019 13:30

If the OP is arguing that a teams performance over the first 10 games (or indeed any 10 games) is strongly correlated to your performance over 46, then I don't think you need to delve too deeply into the stats to agree.


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Re: Worst start for many years.

by Snowflake Royal » 02 Oct 2019 17:20

Sanguine As above, it is worth pointing out that we have played five of the early top eight in the table, and only three in the bottom half, one of whom is 13th placed Cardiff, and another a strangely struggling Middlesbrough.

As always, are they there because they're good or because they're ok and got an easy 3 points off us?

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Re: Worst start for many years.

by Sanguine » 03 Oct 2019 10:03

Snowflake Royal
Sanguine As above, it is worth pointing out that we have played five of the early top eight in the table, and only three in the bottom half, one of whom is 13th placed Cardiff, and another a strangely struggling Middlesbrough.

As always, are they there because they're good or because they're ok and got an easy 3 points off us?


Well we're ten games in, and those eight teams have just 13 defeats between them, so I'd say it's because they are good.

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Re: Worst start for many years.

by stealthpapes » 03 Oct 2019 10:24

Green If the OP is arguing that a teams performance over the first 10 games (or indeed any 10 games) is strongly correlated to your performance over 46, then I don't think you need to delve too deeply into the stats to agree.


Soz, Green, not sure that holds up.

Take 2011-12: After 10 games, we were on a distinctly mediocre 12 points (finished 1st)
The next championship season, 19 from 20 and finished 7th.
14-15, its 15 from 10 games and ultimately 19th.
15-16, 18 from 10 games the next season and we actually drop to 17th.
A point less the following year and we end up in 3rd.

My hunch is that an plot of PPG from that first 10 games vs PPG for the season would be somewhat uncorrelated.

checks OP - andrew1957. Well, he knows literally sweet fuck all about football anyway. :roll:

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Re: Worst start for many years.

by stealthpapes » 03 Oct 2019 10:34

Genuine question, andrew - if that is your real name, how many cup finals does that leave us with this season?


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Re: Worst start for many years.

by CountryRoyal » 03 Oct 2019 12:24

Snowflake Royal
Sanguine As above, it is worth pointing out that we have played five of the early top eight in the table, and only three in the bottom half, one of whom is 13th placed Cardiff, and another a strangely struggling Middlesbrough.

As always, are they there because they're good or because they're ok and got an easy 3 points off us?


Yeah this. 3 points makes a big difference when it’s not out of very many. We see the same argument every year “oh we’ve played x of the top 8” well yeah, that’s because they picked up an easy 3 points of us to inflate their position.

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Re: Worst start for many years.

by SCIAG » 03 Oct 2019 12:52

This summer's transfer business

Kelly out, Adam in
Barrow out, Boye in
Bodvarsson out, Joao in

All three of those deals have proven disastrous. Just think how much stronger the squad would be with those reversed. We'd still have two good wingers, we would have competition in midfield, and we'd have multiple credible striking options.

Of the rest, Miazga, Ejaria, and Rafael are clear successes. Morrison is low risk and makes it easier for us to play a back three, a clear upgrade on McShane. Pele is a disappointment but does the job. Puscas is high risk, high reward - he's clearly very talented but we haven't got the best out of him so far, and he needs to justify his record fee.

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Re: Worst start for many years.

by Hound » 03 Oct 2019 12:58

Why isn’t it

Kelly out - Ejaria in
Bodvarsson out - Puscas in
Barrow out - Boye in?

Which makes it look a lot better

Barrow was let go due to the system Gomes wants to play. Same reason McCleary has been binned.

Haven’t tracked closely but last I saw Bod hasn’t scored a league goal and Kelly had been dropped altogether by their new clubs

Personally I’d have preferred to keep Barrow and McCleary around and play to Puscas/Meite/Joao’s strengths, but that’s a question for the manager not the recruitment

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Re: Worst start for many years.

by URZZZZ » 03 Oct 2019 13:46

Hound Why isn’t it

Kelly out - Ejaria in
Bodvarsson out - Puscas in
Barrow out - Boye in?

Which makes it look a lot better

Barrow was let go due to the system Gomes wants to play. Same reason McCleary has been binned.

Haven’t tracked closely but last I saw Bod hasn’t scored a league goal and Kelly had been dropped altogether by their new clubs

Personally I’d have preferred to keep Barrow and McCleary around and play to Puscas/Meite/Joao’s strengths, but that’s a question for the manager not the recruitment


Because Adam is closer to Kelly in terms of playing style than Ejaria is. Similarly, Joao is closer to Bodvarsson than Puscas is


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Re: Worst start for many years.

by Hound » 03 Oct 2019 13:58

hmm, not sure about that

Don't think any of them are particularly alike at all tbh. Bod and Joao are worlds apart as players

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Re: Worst start for many years.

by 2 world wars, 1 world cup » 03 Oct 2019 15:30

As stealthy points out it's not uncommon for us to start one way and finish another.

What makes this particularly likely for me is that I genuinely believe we have very good players who are punching way way waaaay below their weight at the moment and all it needs is a change, be that a change in philosophy, selection, consistency, formation, coaching OR manager.

What makes it even MORE likely is that one of the above HAS to happen. We know the owners don't mess around and are happy to make snap changes as needed. We know the money that has been ploughed in and the targets Jose has been talking about. It's absolutely clear that if he doesn't make them reach their potential very soon he will be out. I'm certain the owners have someone lined up ready to pounce.

So either way chances are we'll climb much higher: Jose will sort it or we will bring in a manager who will.

What WON'T happen is the owners clinging onto Jose and us having this debate some time in February as we languish around the relegation spots.

Now that above is all dependent on my belief that we have a very good team. If they're shite then.. well even then I guess if they're shite and Jose can't fix it then he will go anyway and we'll get someone who may just get enough good players in in January. I don't believe it will ever come to that however.

I'm looking for more top half finish bets and 7/2 looks very good, I may add to my current 3/1 bet and will gloat later.

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Re: Worst start for many years.

by Maneki Neko » 03 Oct 2019 15:56

Hound Why isn’t it

Kelly out - Ejaria in
Bodvarsson out - Puscas in
Barrow out - Boye in?

Which makes it look a lot better

Barrow was let go due to the system Gomes wants to play. Same reason McCleary has been binned.

Haven’t tracked closely but last I saw Bod hasn’t scored a league goal and Kelly had been dropped altogether by their new clubs

Personally I’d have preferred to keep Barrow and McCleary around and play to Puscas/Meite/Joao’s strengths, but that’s a question for the manager not the recruitment

we had to sell players for financial reasons tbf

Kelly was absolutely slated on here and bod wasn't getting a game

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Re: Worst start for many years.

by Snowflake Royal » 03 Oct 2019 17:24

CountryRoyal
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Sanguine As above, it is worth pointing out that we have played five of the early top eight in the table, and only three in the bottom half, one of whom is 13th placed Cardiff, and another a strangely struggling Middlesbrough.

As always, are they there because they're good or because they're ok and got an easy 3 points off us?


Yeah this. 3 points makes a big difference when it’s not out of very many. We see the same argument every year “oh we’ve played x of the top 8” well yeah, that’s because they picked up an easy 3 points of us to inflate their position.

Yeah, 4 points is currently the difference between 6th and 12th.

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Re: Worst start for many years.

by Green » 04 Oct 2019 09:17

stealthpapes
Green If the OP is arguing that a teams performance over the first 10 games (or indeed any 10 games) is strongly correlated to your performance over 46, then I don't think you need to delve too deeply into the stats to agree.


Soz, Green, not sure that holds up.

Take 2011-12: After 10 games, we were on a distinctly mediocre 12 points (finished 1st)
The next championship season, 19 from 20 and finished 7th.
14-15, its 15 from 10 games and ultimately 19th.
15-16, 18 from 10 games the next season and we actually drop to 17th.
A point less the following year and we end up in 3rd.

My hunch is that an plot of PPG from that first 10 games vs PPG for the season would be somewhat uncorrelated.

Damn it I'm gonna have to dig into this now.

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Re: Worst start for many years.

by NewCorkSeth » 04 Oct 2019 10:03

Snowflake Royal
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Snowflake Royal As always, are they there because they're good or because they're ok and got an easy 3 points off us?


Yeah this. 3 points makes a big difference when it’s not out of very many. We see the same argument every year “oh we’ve played x of the top 8” well yeah, that’s because they picked up an easy 3 points of us to inflate their position.

Yeah, 4 points is currently the difference between 6th and 12th.

I am pretty sure that I read during the international break that our following 5 fixtures were the toughest (based on points thus far) in the Championship. So that kinda kicks the theory in the nuts in this instance.

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Re: Worst start for many years.

by Snowflake Royal » 04 Oct 2019 10:06

Every fixture is tough because we're utter dogshite.

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