Run of Six pointers

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Run of Six pointers

by Stranded » 05 Feb 2024 11:28

Next 8 games will define the season I think - up to and including the game at home to Wycombe on 9th March - we have a massive chance to push up into mid table or end up getting cut adrift. Fixtures are:

Stevenage - 6th (a)
Charlton -19th (H)
Fleetwood - 23rd (a)
Pompey - 1st (a)
Port Vale 20th (H)
Shrewsbury - 16th (H)
Carlisle 24th (a) -
Wycombe 15th (H)

So only 2 games against sides above 15th, as the table stands, if we can get around 14 points here then we should be way away from the bottom 4 going into the final games. Good easily make a case for us winning 5 of those, if we turn up.

Note: Number is position of opposition in the table.
Last edited by Stranded on 05 Feb 2024 11:35, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Run of Six pointers

by WestYorksRoyal » 05 Feb 2024 11:32

The dates are off a little, but agree. Expect we'll know the outcome of the HMRC hearing by the end of the run as well.

Fixture congestion and fatigue/injuries is a real worry. W6 L2 achievable on paper, but I'd take 13 or 14 points.

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Re: Run of Six pointers

by Sutekh » 05 Feb 2024 11:35

WestYorksRoyal The dates are off a little, but agree. Expect we'll know the outcome of the HMRC hearing by the end of the run as well.

Fixture congestion and fatigue/injuries is a real worry. W6 L2 achievable on paper, but I'd take 13 or 14 points.


But then we'll probably have to get more points than needed to cover the inevitable points deduction. Thanks Dai.

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Re: Run of Six pointers

by Stranded » 05 Feb 2024 11:36

WestYorksRoyal The dates are off a little, but agree. Expect we'll know the outcome of the HMRC hearing by the end of the run as well.

Fixture congestion and fatigue/injuries is a real worry. W6 L2 achievable on paper, but I'd take 13 or 14 points.


Sorry, thought the comments around the list had made it clear, those aren't dates but current league position of the opposition.

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Re: Run of Six pointers

by WestYorksRoyal » 05 Feb 2024 11:50

Sutekh
WestYorksRoyal The dates are off a little, but agree. Expect we'll know the outcome of the HMRC hearing by the end of the run as well.

Fixture congestion and fatigue/injuries is a real worry. W6 L2 achievable on paper, but I'd take 13 or 14 points.


But then we'll probably have to get more points than needed to cover the inevitable points deduction. Thanks Dai.

How do we reckon the hearing goes? 1 immediate point, 3 suspended unless we pay a 125% deposit in 30 days? Which we all know Dai won't pay.

So then a race to get exclusivity and a buyer advanced enough that they're willing to help out.


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Re: Run of Six pointers

by Stranded » 05 Feb 2024 12:04

WestYorksRoyal
Sutekh
WestYorksRoyal The dates are off a little, but agree. Expect we'll know the outcome of the HMRC hearing by the end of the run as well.

Fixture congestion and fatigue/injuries is a real worry. W6 L2 achievable on paper, but I'd take 13 or 14 points.


But then we'll probably have to get more points than needed to cover the inevitable points deduction. Thanks Dai.

How do we reckon the hearing goes? 1 immediate point, 3 suspended unless we pay a 125% deposit in 30 days? Which we all know Dai won't pay.

So then a race to get exclusivity and a buyer advanced enough that they're willing to help out.


Dai has made it clear he won't pay and the EFL are charging him now for not doing so, so I would be amazed if there was a shift back from an independant commission to penalising the club for something the owner is being personally charged for.

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Re: Run of Six pointers

by WestYorksRoyal » 05 Feb 2024 12:12

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But then we'll probably have to get more points than needed to cover the inevitable points deduction. Thanks Dai.

How do we reckon the hearing goes? 1 immediate point, 3 suspended unless we pay a 125% deposit in 30 days? Which we all know Dai won't pay.

So then a race to get exclusivity and a buyer advanced enough that they're willing to help out.


Dai has made it clear he won't pay and the EFL are charging him now for not doing so, so I would be amazed if there was a shift back from an independant commission to penalising the club for something the owner is being personally charged for.

It will be interesting to see how balanced it is. The independent commission makes the final call, but how hard the EFL push has a big bearing. Didn’t they attempt to make it 4 up front and 3 suspender for wages earlier in the summer?

I think the EFL have now moved into a position where Dai is the villain and we're the victims, and certainly I don't see more deductions getting us any closer to the goal of getting rid of Dai; quite the opposite given how it could complicate a sale. But they also need to show they are applying the rules consistently. That's why I think a suspended penalty is likely, as it treads the line between the 2 forces. But hopefully the trigger would be another 30 days in arrears or something else we're far likely to trip.

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Re: Run of Six pointers

by Snowflake Royal » 05 Feb 2024 12:22

4 wins and a draw or two should be doable.

Absolutely key is not losing to Fleetwood or Carlisle, draws are tolerable as they don't gain ground with Vale and Charlton being the most key to win.

8 points from those four is good, then 4-6 more from the other four is banging.

Somehow beat Stevenage and Pompey, lose to Charlton and Vale, draw with Shrews and Wycombe and beat Carlisle and Fleetwood is actually worse, imo than getting fewer points but against the right teams.

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Re: Run of Six pointers

by Snowflake Royal » 05 Feb 2024 12:24

WestYorksRoyal
Sutekh
WestYorksRoyal The dates are off a little, but agree. Expect we'll know the outcome of the HMRC hearing by the end of the run as well.

Fixture congestion and fatigue/injuries is a real worry. W6 L2 achievable on paper, but I'd take 13 or 14 points.


But then we'll probably have to get more points than needed to cover the inevitable points deduction. Thanks Dai.

How do we reckon the hearing goes? 1 immediate point, 3 suspended unless we pay a 125% deposit in 30 days? Which we all know Dai won't pay.

So then a race to get exclusivity and a buyer advanced enough that they're willing to help out.

No points deductions. Barred from owning us and required to sell within 28 days.


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Re: Run of Six pointers

by WestYorksRoyal » 05 Feb 2024 12:26

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But then we'll probably have to get more points than needed to cover the inevitable points deduction. Thanks Dai.

How do we reckon the hearing goes? 1 immediate point, 3 suspended unless we pay a 125% deposit in 30 days? Which we all know Dai won't pay.

So then a race to get exclusivity and a buyer advanced enough that they're willing to help out.

No points deductions. Barred from owning us and required to sell within 28 days.

That will be the outcome of the charge against Dai, there is another one outstanding against the club for consistently failing to pay HMRC.

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Re: Run of Six pointers

by Snowflake Royal » 05 Feb 2024 12:28

WestYorksRoyal
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WestYorksRoyal How do we reckon the hearing goes? 1 immediate point, 3 suspended unless we pay a 125% deposit in 30 days? Which we all know Dai won't pay.

So then a race to get exclusivity and a buyer advanced enough that they're willing to help out.

No points deductions. Barred from owning us and required to sell within 28 days.

That will be the outcome of the charge against Dai, there is another one outstanding against the club for consistently failing to pay HMRC.

Ahh well that isn’t about the 125% deposit.

That is pretty uncharted territory, so no idea.

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Re: Run of Six pointers

by Hound » 05 Feb 2024 12:54

Very interesting set of fixtures

Think Carlisle and Fleetwood prob done for so it’s the games vs Charlton, Wycombe etc that will define the season.

Still almost hard to believe we’ve lost 1 in 10 or whatever and still points adrift

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Re: Run of Six pointers

by WestYorksRoyal » 05 Feb 2024 13:05

Ideally we'd get a result tomorrow to take pressure off the "must win" games. I'm nervous about a new manager bounce for Charlton.


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Re: Run of Six pointers

by 3points » 05 Feb 2024 13:15

WestYorksRoyal
Stranded
WestYorksRoyal How do we reckon the hearing goes? 1 immediate point, 3 suspended unless we pay a 125% deposit in 30 days? Which we all know Dai won't pay.

So then a race to get exclusivity and a buyer advanced enough that they're willing to help out.


Dai has made it clear he won't pay and the EFL are charging him now for not doing so, so I would be amazed if there was a shift back from an independant commission to penalising the club for something the owner is being personally charged for.

It will be interesting to see how balanced it is. The independent commission makes the final call, but how hard the EFL push has a big bearing. Didn’t they attempt to make it 4 up front and 3 suspender for wages earlier in the summer?

I think the EFL have now moved into a position where Dai is the villain and we're the victims, and certainly I don't see more deductions getting us any closer to the goal of getting rid of Dai; quite the opposite given how it could complicate a sale. But they also need to show they are applying the rules consistently. That's why I think a suspended penalty is likely, as it treads the line between the 2 forces. But hopefully the trigger would be another 30 days in arrears or something else we're far likely to trip.

Some of the commentary on previous decisions seems to be around a club getting an unfair advantage for its misdemeanours. We have already been punished through our 6+6 deduction and transfer restrictions for our overspending (where we were clearly trying to get an advantage).

The non-payment of HMRC is not trying to seek an a competitive advantage (imo) and should, therefore, should not come with a points penalty. However, given the number of times we do it I could see the arbitrator dishing out a points deduction, just to demonstrate to other clubs not to do the same.

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Re: Run of Six pointers

by WestYorksRoyal » 05 Feb 2024 13:22

3points
WestYorksRoyal
Stranded
Dai has made it clear he won't pay and the EFL are charging him now for not doing so, so I would be amazed if there was a shift back from an independant commission to penalising the club for something the owner is being personally charged for.

It will be interesting to see how balanced it is. The independent commission makes the final call, but how hard the EFL push has a big bearing. Didn’t they attempt to make it 4 up front and 3 suspender for wages earlier in the summer?

I think the EFL have now moved into a position where Dai is the villain and we're the victims, and certainly I don't see more deductions getting us any closer to the goal of getting rid of Dai; quite the opposite given how it could complicate a sale. But they also need to show they are applying the rules consistently. That's why I think a suspended penalty is likely, as it treads the line between the 2 forces. But hopefully the trigger would be another 30 days in arrears or something else we're far likely to trip.

Some of the commentary on previous decisions seems to be around a club getting an unfair advantage for its misdemeanours. We have already been punished through our 6+6 deduction and transfer restrictions for our overspending (where we were clearly trying to get an advantage).

The non-payment of HMRC is not trying to seek an a competitive advantage (imo) and should, therefore, should not come with a points penalty. However, given the number of times we do it I could see the arbitrator dishing out a points deduction, just to demonstrate to other clubs not to do the same.

I can see a pretty clear argument that we signed Wing, Smith and Knibbs on decent L1 wages in the summer and therefore by living beyond our means we're getting a sporting advantage. Hopefully if the club can demonstrate that we've taken actions to ensure we can keep up with our payments in the future it will be a mitigation.

And there is a counter argument that Dai geared the club to be dependent on him which we've (rightfully) been punished for, so it's not fair to punish us again now he's pulled the plug. The root cause is the same.

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Re: Run of Six pointers

by Stranded » 05 Feb 2024 13:32

WestYorksRoyal
3points
WestYorksRoyal It will be interesting to see how balanced it is. The independent commission makes the final call, but how hard the EFL push has a big bearing. Didn’t they attempt to make it 4 up front and 3 suspender for wages earlier in the summer?

I think the EFL have now moved into a position where Dai is the villain and we're the victims, and certainly I don't see more deductions getting us any closer to the goal of getting rid of Dai; quite the opposite given how it could complicate a sale. But they also need to show they are applying the rules consistently. That's why I think a suspended penalty is likely, as it treads the line between the 2 forces. But hopefully the trigger would be another 30 days in arrears or something else we're far likely to trip.

Some of the commentary on previous decisions seems to be around a club getting an unfair advantage for its misdemeanours. We have already been punished through our 6+6 deduction and transfer restrictions for our overspending (where we were clearly trying to get an advantage).

The non-payment of HMRC is not trying to seek an a competitive advantage (imo) and should, therefore, should not come with a points penalty. However, given the number of times we do it I could see the arbitrator dishing out a points deduction, just to demonstrate to other clubs not to do the same.

I can see a pretty clear argument that we signed Wing, Smith and Knibbs on decent L1 wages in the summer and therefore by living beyond our means we're getting a sporting advantage. Hopefully if the club can demonstrate that we've taken actions to ensure we can keep up with our payments in the future it will be a mitigation.

And there is a counter argument that Dai geared the club to be dependent on him which we've (rightfully) been punished for, so it's not fair to punish us again now he's pulled the plug. The root cause is the same.


I feel the sporting advantage argument only really flies if it was never paid - paying a few days (or a couple of weeks) late on a number of occassions is terrible but it was paid and we have already had the agreed punishment for delayed payment, inability to pay transfer fees etc for 3 windows as a result of it. Any additional punishment to the club, particulary deductions would seem overly harsh and potentially means we will be punished twice for the same crime.

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Re: Run of Six pointers

by Clyde1998 » 05 Feb 2024 14:37

I think we should be getting something from all our remaining home matches, with the possible exception of Blackpool. The run of Charlton, Port Vale, Shrewsbury, Wycombe, Cambridge, Northampton, Lincoln, Blackpool is fairly favourable for us - especially looking at the away form table, where Lincoln are the best in the past eight away matches with eleven points. Everyone else, except Northampton (10 pts) are getting less than a point per game away at the moment. The form table could of course change by the time we actually play sides.

Our away games are much tougher on paper: Stevenage, Fleetwood, Portsmouth, Carlisle, Derby, Bristol Rovers, Bolton, Barnsley, Burton. Derby, Bolton and Stevenage are the top three in the home form guide (past eight) and only Carlisle and Fleetwood are at one point per game or less over that time - all others are in the top half for home form.

Getting sixteen points from the home games and seven away has to be the bare minimum if we’re going to stay up.

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Re: Run of Six pointers

by Mr Angry » 05 Feb 2024 14:55

The 4 home games in that list - plus Fleetwood and Carlisle - are must wins IMHO.

Drawing is only slightly better than losing, which is why despite only having lost once in the last 10 games, we are still in the bottom 4; we have to start converting those draws into wins, and sooner rather than later.

Our other hope is that others are dipping in form at the moment so getting closer to us.....looking at the last 5 games, our record (WLWDD) is only bettered by one team ranked lower than 9th (Wigan, DWWLW) and equalled by Cambridge (LWDDW), and only 5 points seperates us from Shrewsbury in 16th.

If we can get a couple of wins on the bounce, things start to look more positive.

It is going to be very tight come the end of the season; I can see at least 8 or 9 teams in the relegation mix come the last couple of weeks of the season...........

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Re: Run of Six pointers

by Brogue » 06 Feb 2024 21:38

One down. Think we will win the next 5.

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Re: Run of Six pointers

by Snowflake Royal » 06 Feb 2024 21:41

Brogue One down. Think we will win the next 5.

Steady on!

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