How many points for safety

[bobby m's syrup]

Despite our great run of form, the amount of time that it is taking to climb out of the drop zone is an indication of how dire our position was. We now appear to have a manager who 'has the dressing room' and can use the natural strengths of his squad. Therefore, I am not ruling out the play offs, particularly as the lower reaches of the division are so tight; but I would rather have a convincing mid table finish with a strengthening in the summer and a realistic bid for glory next season.

[PEARCEY]

Despite our great run of form, the amount of time that it is taking to climb out of the drop zone is an indication of how dire our position was. We now appear to have a manager who 'has the dressing room' and can use the natural strengths of his squad. Therefore, I am not ruling out the play offs, particularly as the lower reaches of the division are so tight; but I would rather have a convincing mid table finish with a strengthening in the summer and a realistic bid for glory next season.

......8 points behind a struggling Cardiff with a game in hand...6 points behind Blackpool who may/may not still be 7th with 2 games in hand. The play-offs are a possibility now. They really are.

EDIT Blackpool are still 7th. Win our games in hand and we are level with a team who are currently 1 place off the play-offs.

[total_biscuit]

As an aside, as a result of drawing against Boro today, Newcastle can no longer beat our record points total of 106.



TB

[leww_rfc]

As an aside, as a result of drawing against Boro today, Newcastle can no longer beat our record points total of 106.



TB

Yep and when we smash them in April, they won't be able to level it either!!

[RoyalChicagoFC]

Just a personal hope is that we finish ahead not only of the bottom three but indeed by a minimum of ten points clear of, and with a better goal difference than, Palace

We were 4 points clear of 'em as of that writing, and now the gap is 9

At the time, they were 5 better than us in the goal-difference column, where their advantage since has been pared to 1

In the larger picture, and depending upon how everything finishes up, it may be revealed in time that we've already made ourselves safe

Norwich went down on 46 points at the end of last season, but they'd've gone down on 49 anyway had they beaten Charlton on the last day instead of losing to them as they did, since a draw for Barnsley (instead of the win that they got) away to Plymouth would've seen the Tykes finishing safe in 21st on 50 points (and in fact it was Argyle who took 21st, a point back of Barnsley in 20th, with 51; Southampton would've finished on 48 had they won and not lost on the last day but were down before kickoff in any event)

Anyway, we may well be looking back upon this date down the road (but I'm guessing that time will show that we need[ed] another three to five more points after this)

[westendgirl]

Just a personal hope is that we finish ahead not only of the bottom three but indeed by a minimum of ten points clear of, and with a better goal difference than, Palace

We were 4 points clear of 'em as of that writing, and now the gap is 9

At the time, they were 5 better than us in the goal-difference column, where their advantage since has been pared to 1

In the larger picture, and depending upon how everything finishes up, it may be revealed in time that we've already made ourselves safe

Norwich went down on 46 points at the end of last season, but they'd've gone down on 49 anyway had they beaten Charlton on the last day instead of losing to them as they did, since a draw for Barnsley (instead of the win that they got) away to Plymouth would've seen the Tykes finishing safe in 21st on 50 points (and in fact it was Argyle who took 21st, a point back of Barnsley in 20th, with 51; Southampton would've finished on 48 had they won and not lost on the last day but were down before kickoff in any event)

Anyway, we may well be looking back upon this date down the road (but I'm guessing that time will show that we need[ed] another three to five more points after this)

It will be interesting if the game against Leicester on the 24th March (rather than 25th in 2006) is the one that matters. synchronicity!

[RoyalChicagoFC]

Scunny clobbered @ St James' tonite, so they lose ground --still 9 behind us on 38 points and now having played 36 league matches

In the larger picture, and depending upon how everything finishes up, it may be revealed in time that we've already made ourselves safe

[Details, data, explanation]

Anyway, we may well be looking back upon this date down the road (but I'm guessing that time will show that we need[ed] another three to five more points after this)

It will be interesting if the game against Leicester on the 24th March (rather than 25th in 2006) is the one that matters. synchronicity!

Well... we were 20 points clear of (Watford in) third with 6 games (or 18 points) remaining on offer at the close of business on 25.3.06, when promotion first was known to have been secured

We finished up the campaign 25 points clear of (again, Watford in) third (on 81 points)...so in a retrospective sense (and ignoring other tangential factors such as relative positions in the late jockeying for play-off spots that could have influenced who was going for what and how earnestly so), it could be argued that in fact we were made safe when we hit the 82-point mark

In particular, that would have been with our 2-0 home win over Southampton on 10th February --happy birthday to me and all of that

[RoyalChicagoFC]

Revisiting this thread --something of a comedy number in hindsight...

Palace are in third bottom on 42 with 6 to play so could finish with a max of 60

Let's chuck out their ten-point deduction, and the next highest possible season low is Wednesday with 62, again with 6 to play

Then it's Watford with a max possible of 64 with 7 left for them to play

Really, it now appears to be those three, plus Argyle, fighting to avoid the two relegation spots not owned by Posh

I reckon about 74 for the play-offs, but that's another story...

I reckon as low as 68 for 6th place this season.

So Blackpool to finish out 5W 3D 3L then (and Cardiff out)

Makes sense, and I could see Leicester tumbling out too, thus opening up a second spot to a side with a massive finishing kick (but I've precious little hope it'll be us)

Coventry if the current form guide has any say.

Cov 0W 3D 2L since this post

Leicester 2W 1D 3L, but 1D then 3L over their last four

[RoyalChicagoFC]

What is the least number of points needed for play-off?

70 is the lowest points total for a sixth-place finish
--at the second level
--comprised of 24 teams
--during the "play-offs era"
--and exclusively involving sides from the second level (with no top-flight side entered in a "relegation playoff," in other words)

This is the format in effect from the 1988-9 season, and has involved the sides finishing in 3rd thru 6th with, erm, one* exception

It's been done twice, first by Brighton in 1990-1 and again by Watford in 2007-8

*Correction (f*ck!): Two, actually --Brighton did indeed finish 6th in 1990-1, but because the top flight was expanded to 22 sides from the following season (the first of the Premier League), the top three sides got automatic at the end of 1990-1, and 4th thru 7th were entered in the promotion play-offs

This season's max high for a sixth-place finish now stands at 76 (Leicester in sixth on 61, with 5 remaining to be played --and RFC on 52 with 8 to play)

Blackpool's max is 75, then it drops off to Donny with 73 and then Blades and Boro at 72

Looking like a historicaLOL low is a good bet

[RoyalChicagoFC]

So we're safe on 56 with five games left for us to play, but this one's really pegged to third bottom side Sheffield Wednesday, who are on 45 points with just three of their own remaining

We would be irrevocably safe on 55, therefore, and it's looking for all the world that we'll finish with a better goal-difference no matter what, in which case we'd be safe in the event that we were to lose all of our remaining games as they claimed maximum points from theirs and we thus finished level with them on 54 points; we'll watch that

[And breathe]

Meanwhile, the current maximum possible points haul for a sixth place finish is 74, which is pegged to Swansea currently in sixth on 65 points with three games left for them to play

Any side currently on fewer than 56 points with an identical number of games to be played is out of contention for a top-six finish

Current maximum possible points hauls for those still in the hunt after 43 games played ('cept RFC with 41)

Swansea 74
---------------
Blackpool 72
RFC 71
Boro 70
BristolC 68
SheffU 67

See posts above --70 points is the all-time low for a sixth-place finish in the promotion play-offs era for seasons in which third thru sixth played off; its relevance to current affairs is limited to its value as the answer to a trivia question

[RoyalChicagoFC]

....and the answer is: 48 for safety (or 47 with a GD > Wednesday's -20)

Retrospective safety:
47 pts (GD -3) QPR (H) 16 March (W 1-0) (match #35)
48 pts (GD -3) Boro (A) 20 March (D 1-1) (match #36)

For a top-six finish, 71 points (or 70 with a goal-difference of better than Blackpool's +16) would've done it

The latter is, as we have seen, historically low under the standard format --level with Watford's 70 of two seasons back