The Snowball stat thread

[Snowball]

Was impressed with Leicester tonight even Mills had a good game. Birmingham have a stronger squad than us. I expect both of those to finish above us.

RFC's current form (even including 2 defeats in 3) is 1.81 ppg

If RFC continue their form of the last 21 games, then, to pass us, Leicester
will need 39 points from their next 19 games, Championship-winning form.

Not impossible, of course, but if Leicester DO manage that they are going to hurt other top-ten sides.

Far more likely is they will make the POs and have a great chance of winning them as they have momentum

West Ham, Cardiff, Birmingham are probably the best bet for top three
Southampton are a very good side.

Now throw in Leicester, Blackpool, a possibly resurgent Brighton and Derby

Ourselves, makes 9. And then there's Hull and Boro.


Crazy. A good case to be made for at least 11 clubs. I think we DO have to buy!!

[Snowball]

Form since Doncaster Game continued

Looking at our current points and our 22-Game current form,
we are on target for 33/34 more points from 18 games = 78/79 Points


1 21 12-4-5 10 Clean Sheets . . 28-17 +11 40 Points 1.90 ppg = 87.40 Season West Ham United
2 22 12-5-5 10 Clean Sheets . . 30-19 +11 41 Points 1.86 ppg = 85.56 Season Reading
3 21 10-8-3 08 Clean Sheets . . 35-23 +12 38 Points 1.81 ppg = 83.26 Season Cardiff City
4 21 10-6-5 07 Clean Sheets . . 34-19 +15 36 Points 1.71 ppg = 78.66 Season Birmingham City
5 21 11-3-7 08 Clean Sheets . . 24-19 +05 36 Points 1.71 ppg = 78.66 Season Hull City
6 21 10-5-6 06 Clean Sheets . . 35-22 +13 35 Points 1.67 ppg = 76.82 Season Southampton
7 21 10-5-6 05 Clean Sheets . . 32-27 +50 35 Points 1.67 ppg = 76.82 Season Leeds United

[Snowball]

Defense Table

Conceding less than a goal a game


1 27 24 0.89 12 CS West Ham United
2 27 25 0.93 11 CS Hull City
3 28 27 0.96 11 CS Reading

[Platypuss]

Defense Table

[Snowball]

4 Reading 28 7-4-4 . . 21-14 6-2-5 . . 14-13 +08 45 Points . . 2011-12
8 Reading 28 6-6-2 . . 24-14 4-6-4 . . 19-16 +13 42 Points . . 2010-11


Last season we then went LLDDWD 8-9 6 points in 6 games

Our next 6...

A Doncaster
H Coventry
A Derby
H Burnley
A Middlesbrough
A Millwall

If we only managed 9 points from these games we'd be 6 points better off than last year with 12 games to play

[JC]

4 Reading 28 7-4-4 . . 21-14 6-2-5 . . 14-13 +08 45 Points . . 2011-12
8 Reading 28 6-6-2 . . 24-14 4-6-4 . . 19-16 +13 42 Points . . 2010-11


Last season we then went LLDDWD 8-9 6 points in 6 games

Our next 6...

A Doncaster
H Coventry
A Derby
H Burnley
A Middlesbrough
A Millwall

If we only managed 9 points from these games we'd be 6 points better off than last year with 12 games to play

I wouldn't mind betting that last years last 12 were probably easier than this years

[Snowball]

4 Reading 28 7-4-4 . . 21-14 6-2-5 . . 14-13 +08 45 Points . . 2011-12
8 Reading 28 6-6-2 . . 24-14 4-6-4 . . 19-16 +13 42 Points . . 2010-11


Last season we then went LLDDWD 8-9 6 points in 6 games

Our next 6...

A Doncaster
H Coventry
A Derby
H Burnley
A Middlesbrough
A Millwall

If we only managed 9 points from these games we'd be 6 points better off than last year with 12 games to play

I wouldn't mind betting that last years last 12 were probably easier than this years

I don't think we did brill for the last 12 last year

EDIT (Actually we did over the 12, but with a poor finish)

[Snowball]

Last 18 Games 2010-11

29 Points from last 12 Games!!!
35 Points from last 18 Games

W10 D5 L3 34-21 35 Pts = 1.94 ppg

We therefore need to accumulate 32 points from 18 (1.78 ppg) to match last season's points tally

We have manged 1.86 ppg over the last 22 games (since Doncaster 12-5-5)

If we maintain 1.86 ppg from here on in we will be either 4 or 5 points higher than last year

81 or 82 points

So if the new players can keep us up to this form and maybe turn 1-2 draws into a wins, we can sneak second

POOR PATCH

H 0-1 QPR
A 1-2 Norwich
A 1-1 Sheffield
H 1-1 Watford
H 2-1 Millwall
A 3-3 Palace



AMAZING RUN

H 5-2 Middlesbrough
A 3-1 Ipswich
A 1-0 Barnsley
H 2-0 Portsmouth
H 2-1 Preston
A 4-3 Forest
A 2-0 Scunthorpe
H 3-1 Leicester

=====================

NOT SO GOOD

A 0-0 Leeds
H 2-3 Sheffield
A 0-0 Coventry
H 2-1 Derby

[Snowball]

Championship Best Defences



West Ham Drop, Reading go second.



1 28 25 0.89 12 Clean Sheets Hull City
2 28 27 0.96 11 Clean Sheets Reading

3 27 27 1.00 09 Clean Sheets Birmingham City
3 28 28 1.00 11 Clean Sheets Crystal Palace

5 27 28 1.04 11 Clean Sheets Middlesbrough
5 28 29 1.04 12 Clean Sheets West Ham United

[sandman]

YYYYYYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS we're second in the league.













































































































Oh sh1t.

[Snowball]

Things look good.

If we can stay 1-2-3 as a defensive unit (and we should now we've strengthened)

and score say 10% more goals, decent chance with Roberts on board)
that's virtually certain for top three, and a VG chance of top two

[Libertine]

The only number which matters to me right now is 6. The number of points we are off 2nd.

[Snowball]

Looking Good!


Championship Form Table Since Game 7 (Doncaster, September 17th)



1 22 12-5-5 10 Clean Sheets . . 30-19 +11 GD 41 Points 1.86 ppg Reading

2 22 12-4-6 10 Clean Sheets . . 29-22 +07 GD 40 Points 1.82 ppg West Ham United
3 22 11-6-5 07 Clean Sheets . . 38-20 +18 GD 39 Points 1.77 ppg Birmingham City
4 22 10-9-3 08 Clean Sheets . . 36-24 +12 GD 39 Points 1.77 ppg Cardiff City
5 22 11-4-7 09 Clean Sheets . . 24-19 +05 GD 37 Points 1.68 ppg Hull City
6 23 12-2-9 08 Clean Sheets . . 36-25 +11 GD 38 Points 1.65 ppg Burnley
7 22 10-6-6 06 Clean Sheets . . 36-23 +13 GD 36 Points 1.64 ppg Southampton
8 22 10-5-7 05 Clean Sheets . . 33-31 +02 GD 35 Points 1.59 ppg Leeds United
9 22 09-7-6 06 Clean Sheets . . 37-30 +07 GD 34 Points 1.55 ppg Blackpool


Top on Points Gained
Top on Points per Game
Equal-top on Number of Wins
Equal-top Most Clean Sheets (10)
Equal-top Least Goals Conceded
Second on Number of Defeats

[Snowball]

The only number which matters to me right now is 6. The number of points we are off 2nd.

We'll be going to Birmingham to decide the Championship/Second-Spot between us.

[themadstad]

So if we maintain that 1.86 then we would finish on 78 points. That isn't going to be top two. Top two would require over 2.1ppg until the end of the season for a 2nd spot chance. Like saying in those 22 games we'd have 46 points.

[Libertine]

The only number which matters to me right now is 6. The number of points we are off 2nd.

We'll be going to Birmingham to decide the Championship/Second-Spot between us.

Did, did a post which I then deleted, saying how the top spot was up for grabs too...then my flashback ridden brain realized that was what you were saying also.

[Snowball]

So if we maintain that 1.86 then we would finish on 78 points. That isn't going to be top two. Top two would require over 2.1ppg until the end of the season for a 2nd spot chance. Like saying in those 22 games we'd have 46 points.

You don't just look at OUR points per game.

You have to look at the other teams slipping too

But ON CURRENT FORM, given that we threw our first six games, it will be tough

This is how it would end based on the last 22-game form and current points




53 1.82 32.76 85-86 West Ham 85.76
50 1.77 31.86 81-82 Cardiff 81.86
51 1.64 29.52 80-81 Saints 80.52
46 1.77 33.63 79-80 Birmingham 79.63
45 1.86 33.48 78-79 Reading 78.48
46 1.68 30.24 76-77 Hull 76.24

===========================================
45 1.55 27.90 72-73 Blackpool 72.90
43 1.65 29.70 72-73 Burnley 72.70
45 1.48 26.64 71-72 Boro 71.64
42 1.59 28.62 70-71 Leeds 70.62

Obviously six pointers might have a huge effect on the table below, but
we are likely ON CURRENT FORM to finish within 3 points of Cardiff in second,
and remember we have played Cardiff twice, which should help a little.

Basically, if we maintain our form and just turn ONE draw into a win,
we will have a really serious chance of second. I would love West Ham
to lose one of their next two and get rattled. Then it could get very
interesting. Birmingham, despite the table below, look like the team
most likely.

[JC]

So if we maintain that 1.86 then we would finish on 78 points. That isn't going to be top two. Top two would require over 2.1ppg until the end of the season for a 2nd spot chance. Like saying in those 22 games we'd have 46 points.

You don't just look at OUR points per game.

You have to look at the other teams slipping too

But ON CURRENT FORM, given that we threw our first six games, it will be tough

This is how it would end based on the last 22-game form and current points




53 1.82 32.76 85-86 West Ham 85.76
50 1.77 31.86 81-82 Cardiff 81.86
51 1.64 29.52 80-81 Saints 80.52
46 1.77 33.63 79-80 Birmingham 79.63
45 1.86 33.48 78-79 Reading 78.48
46 1.68 30.24 76-77 Hull 76.24

===========================================
45 1.55 27.90 72-73 Blackpool 72.90
43 1.65 29.70 72-73 Burnley 72.70
45 1.48 26.64 71-72 Boro 71.64
42 1.59 28.62 70-71 Leeds 70.62

Obviously six pointers might have a huge effect on the table below, but
we are likely ON CURRENT FORM to finish within 3 points of Cardiff in second,
and remember we have played Cardiff twice, which should help a little.

Basically, if we maintain our form and just turn ONE draw into a win,
we will have a really serious chance of second. I would love West Ham
to lose one of their next two and get rattled. Then it could get very
interesting. Birmingham, despite the table below, look like the team
most likely.

Have you thought about what might happen if Pompey went into liquidation and had their points expunged?

[Snowball]

So if we maintain that 1.86 then we would finish on 78 points. That isn't going to be top two. Top two would require over 2.1ppg until the end of the season for a 2nd spot chance. Like saying in those 22 games we'd have 46 points.

You don't just look at OUR points per game.

You have to look at the other teams slipping too

But ON CURRENT FORM, given that we threw our first six games, it will be tough

This is how it would end based on the last 22-game form and current points




53 1.82 32.76 85-86 West Ham 85.76
50 1.77 31.86 81-82 Cardiff 81.86
51 1.64 29.52 80-81 Saints 80.52
46 1.77 33.63 79-80 Birmingham 79.63
45 1.86 33.48 78-79 Reading 78.48
46 1.68 30.24 76-77 Hull 76.24

===========================================
45 1.55 27.90 72-73 Blackpool 72.90
43 1.65 29.70 72-73 Burnley 72.70
45 1.48 26.64 71-72 Boro 71.64
42 1.59 28.62 70-71 Leeds 70.62

Obviously six pointers might have a huge effect on the table below, but
we are likely ON CURRENT FORM to finish within 3 points of Cardiff in second,
and remember we have played Cardiff twice, which should help a little.

Basically, if we maintain our form and just turn ONE draw into a win,
we will have a really serious chance of second. I would love West Ham
to lose one of their next two and get rattled. Then it could get very
interesting. Birmingham, despite the table below, look like the team
most likely.

Have you thought about what might happen if Pompey went into liquidation and had their points expunged?

Nope, but it would have to be good for us, as we lost there.

[JC]

Have you thought about what might happen if Pompey went into liquidation and had their points expunged?

Nope, but it would have to be good for us, as we lost there.

Yes and Cardiff have taken 4 points, West Ham 6, Hull 3, Boro 1 and Saints 1 so West Ham would be really big time losers
Strangely Birmingham have not played them yet

It would stir things up nicely!