The Snowball stat thread

[Snowball]

so if suddenly had average results say we won 6 drew 5 and lost 5 of last 16 games

Of course it could always happen, OOTM, and the next one (Burnley) is a real toughie
but until a run changes drastically I would always go with its average ppg.

would you back red if black had come up 10 times in a row in roulette? an innocent question by the way!

Gambler's Fallacy. if the wheel is genuine it's 50-50 either colour next spin.


However, form is not the same as a roulette wheel, it's strongly predictive over multiple games (less so over 1 game)

[SydenhamRoyal]

[quote="Snowball"]Update after DERBY

0,745 Minutes 01 Major Contributions one every 745 Minutes 3 Goals 0 Assists GRIFFIN
2,800 Minutes 03 Major Contributions one every 933 Minutes 3 Goals 0 Assists PEARCE
0,879 Minutes 01 Major Contributions one every 877 Minutes 3 Goals 0 Assists TABB

Did I miss Griffin's and Tabb's goals?

[Only one Trevor Morley]

indeed. but form is temporary and class is permanent. not sure we have enough class to go up, but then not sure many others do either....

need to factor in that 9 of last 15 games are away and that we still need to play 4 of top 7.... happy with my spread.

[Snowball]

Just speculative

Table if those teams with games in hand win the GiH 1-0

Figures in brackets odds for outright winners)


1 31 GD 17 60 Points West Ham (10/11)
2 31 GD 22 56 Points Southampton (4/1)
=====================
3 31 GD 21 54 Points Birmingham (13/2)
4 31 GD 12 54 Points Reading (12/1)
5 31 GD 14 53 Points Cardiff (8/1)
6 31 GD 06 53 Points Hull (33/1) Amazing Odds?
=====================
7 31 GD 04 53 Points Middlesbrough (22/1)
8 31 GD 14 52 Points Blackpool (16/1)


"15 Games to go" two points off automatic with Saints and West Ham to play..

[Only one Trevor Morley]

shouldnt we factor clean sheets into this?

[Snowball]

indeed. but form is temporary and class is permanent. not sure we have enough class to go up, but then not sure many others do either....

need to factor in that 9 of last 15 games are away and that we still need to play 4 of top 7.... happy with my spread.

Form is temporary, but our table-topping form is now Sept 17th to February 14th, 5 solid months.


My feeling is we now have the best keeper in the division, the best CB pairing, a top-class RB (Connolly) a very decent LB
and the two best midfield "destroyers" (as a pair) in the league.

Up front we are less special but our two wingers, on their day are match-winners


and one hell of a manager...

[Only one Trevor Morley]

Just speculative

Table if those teams with games in hand win the GiH 1-0

Figures in brackets odds for outright winners)


1 31 GD 17 60 Points West Ham (10/11)
2 31 GD 22 56 Points Southampton (4/1)
=====================
3 31 GD 21 54 Points Birmingham (13/2)
4 31 GD 12 54 Points Reading (12/1)
5 31 GD 14 53 Points Cardiff (8/1)
6 31 GD 06 53 Points Hull (33/1) Amazing Odds?
=====================
7 31 GD 04 53 Points Middlesbrough (22/1)
8 31 GD 14 52 Points Blackpool (16/1)


"15 Games to go" two points off automatic with Saints and West Ham to play..

I'm off to put a tenner each way on hull. hugely overpriced why are they 4 times leess likely to go up than cardiff?

[Snowball]

]Update after DERBY


0,022 Minutes 01 Major Contributions one every 022 Minutes 0 Goals 1 Assists CYWKA (not statistically relevant)
0,258 Minutes 04 Major Contributions one every 065 Minutes 2 Goals 2 Assists Roberts (not statistically relevant)
1,543 Minutes 11 Major Contributions one every 140 Minutes 6 Goals 5 Assists ALF
0,446 Minutes 03 Major Contributions one every 147 Minutes 3 Goals 0 Assists MANSET (not statistically relevant?)
1,715 Minutes 11 Major Contributions one every 156 Minutes 3 Goals 8 Assists KEBE
0,180 Minutes 01 Major Contributions one every 180 Minutes 0 Goals 1 Assists Connolly (not statistically relevant)
1,670 Minutes 09 Major Contributions one every 186 Minutes 4 Goals 5 Assists HUNT

1,255 Minutes 06 Major Contributions one every 209 Minutes 0 Goals 6 Assists HARTE
1,496 Minutes 07 Major Contributions one every 214 Minutes 6 Goals 1 Assists CHURCH
1,347 Minutes 06 Major Contributions one every 225 Minutes 3 Goals 3 Assists HRK
2,115 Minutes 09 Major Contributions one every 235 Minutes 4 Goals 5 Assists McAnuff

2,116 Minutes 03 Major Contributions one every 705 Minutes 1 Goals 2 Assists KARACAN
0,745 Minutes 01 Major Contributions one every 745 Minutes 0 Goals 1 Assists GRIFFIN
0,879 Minutes 01 Major Contributions one every 877 Minutes 0 Goals 1 Assists TABB
2,800 Minutes 03 Major Contributions one every 933 Minutes 3 Goals 0 Assists PEARCE

1,198 Minutes 01 Major Contributions one every 1,198 Minutes 0 Goals 1 Assists MILLS
2,428 Minutes 02 Major Contributions one every 1,214 Minutes 1 Goals 1 Assists L-WOOD
1,964 Minutes 00 Major Contributions one every 1,964 Minutes 0 Goals 1 Assists CUMMINGS

[Snowball]

shouldnt we factor clean sheets into this?

Totally, but not in "Attacking Stats"

[Only one Trevor Morley]

indeed. but form is temporary and class is permanent. not sure we have enough class to go up, but then not sure many others do either....

need to factor in that 9 of last 15 games are away and that we still need to play 4 of top 7.... happy with my spread.

Form is temporary, but our table-topping form is now Sept 17th to February 14th, 5 solid months.


My feeling is we now have the best keeper in the division, the best CB pairing, a top-class RB (Connolly) a very decent LB
and the two best midfield "destroyers" (as a pair) in the league.

Up front we are less special but our two wingers, on their day are match-winners


and one hell of a manager...

we need more goals really... defensively we are automatic poromotion contenders. in attack its mid table. even over that period you mention we havent really been scoring for fun.

[Snowball]

Did I miss Griffin's and Tabb's goals?

Thanks


Oops, dodgy cut-and-paste-then-edit

their overall figures were correct (now fixed)

[Snowball]

Just speculative

Table if those teams with games in hand win the GiH 1-0

Figures in brackets odds for outright winners)


1 31 GD 17 60 Points West Ham (10/11)
2 31 GD 22 56 Points Southampton (4/1)
=====================
3 31 GD 21 54 Points Birmingham (13/2)
4 31 GD 12 54 Points Reading (12/1)
5 31 GD 14 53 Points Cardiff (8/1)
6 31 GD 06 53 Points Hull (33/1) Amazing Odds?
=====================
7 31 GD 04 53 Points Middlesbrough (22/1)
8 31 GD 14 52 Points Blackpool (16/1)


"15 Games to go" two points off automatic with Saints and West Ham to play..

I'm off to put a tenner each way on hull. hugely overpriced why are they 4 times leess likely to go up than cardiff?

They are the odds TO BE CHAMPIONS


even so, good odds

[Snowball]

we need more goals really... defensively we are automatic poromotion contenders. in attack its mid table. even over that period you mention we havent really been scoring for fun.

Sort of... but if we keep clean sheets and score a single goal, that will do me


16 Games to go. 8 x 1-0 wins and 8 x 0-0 draws would give us 83 points and a GD of +19, a decent chance of 2nd.

[Snowball]

Form Tables

Last 10 Games

1 06-3-1 21-05 +16 21 Birmingham
2 07-0-3 14-06 +08 21 Reading

Last 11 Games

1 07-3-1 23-06 +17 24 Birmingham
2 08-0-3 17-08 +09 24 Reading

Last 12 Games

1 09-0-3 20-10 +10 27 Reading
2 07-3-2 24-08 +16 24 Birmingham

Last 13 Games

1 09-0-4 21-12 +09 27 Reading
2 08-2-3 20-09 +11 26 Burnley

Last 14 Games

1 10-0-4 22-12 +10 30 Reading
2 09-1-4 20-17 +03 28 West Ham

Last 15 Games

1 10-0-5 22-13 +09 30 Reading
2 09-2-4 20-17 +03 29 West Ham

Last 16 Games

1 16 10-2-4 23-19 +04 32 West Ham
2 16 10-1-5 22-13 +09 31 Reading

[Z175]

I think there's an extra promotion place up for grabs this year. QPR were as good as up when they hit a blip and were never in danger of being caught. This season its wide open. Also last year Norwich Swansea Cardiff Leeds and Forest closed out the top 6 for most of the season, this yet there are more contenders, but no one has it sewn up.

I think Hull, Boro and Cardiff are punching above their weight but so far are looking imperious. But by May they might of dropped back. Southampton too may implode sun they are caught, which surely looks likely on form.

It'll be very hard to squeeze WHU and Brum for automatic, but we have got that experience and again we are flying at the right time.

16 games is a long time though, and last season showed how things can change. We need to keep this up. 3 points on Friday is massive.

But we are not playing to our best right now, yet injuries coming back could help. Pearce and Gorkss are looking like they will inspire us to a Birmingham like promotion!

[Snowball]

I think there's an extra promotion place up for grabs this year. QPR were as good as up when they hit a blip and were never in danger of being caught. This season its wide open. Also last year Norwich Swansea Cardiff Leeds and Forest closed out the top 6 for most of the season, this yet there are more contenders, but no one has it sewn up.

I think Hull, Boro and Cardiff are punching above their weight but so far are looking imperious. But by May they might of dropped back. Southampton too may implode sun they are caught, which surely looks likely on form.

It'll be very hard to squeeze WHU and Brum for automatic, but we have got that experience and again we are flying at the right time.

16 games is a long time though, and last season showed how things can change. We need to keep this up. 3 points on Friday is massive.

But we are not playing to our best right now, yet injuries coming back could help. Pearce and Gorkss are looking like they will inspire us to a Birmingham like promotion!

Hull are very similar to us, based on an extremely stingy defence, but otherwise, agree

[Snowball]

I'm a tiny bit worried that Saints might have got over their bad form.

Hard to say for sure but they've had a bad run, stayed second, and now have WD and are still there.

If we are (eventually) to nick second, we may need results at Southampton AND Birmingham. VERY Tough.

need to star looking at the six-pointers

[Snowball]

"Six-Pointers" for Contenders.


Reading V Burnley
Blackpool V West Ham
Middlesbrough V Reading

if we can get 3-4-6 points from the above, we can then
sit back and watch the other teams (below) hurt each other

Blackpool V Hull
Leeds United V Southampton
Cardiff V West Ham
Brighton V Cardiff
Burnley V Birmingham
Hull V Leeds United
Middlesbrough V Leeds United
Cardiff V Hull
Birmingham V Middlesbrough
Blackpool V Brighton
Leeds United V West Ham
Cardiff V Burnley
Blackpool V Leicester
Hull V Southampton
West Ham V Middlesbrough
Burnley V West Ham


until we are called back into action, where we need at least two points from

Reading V Blackpool
Birmingham V Cardiff
Brighton V Middlesbrough
West Ham V Reading

Blackpool V Southampton
Burnley V Brighton
Middlesbrough V Cardiff

then four + points from

Reading V Leeds United
Hull V Middlesbrough
West Ham V Birmingham
Brighton V Reading
Southampton V Reading

now watch the carnage

West Ham V Brighton
Blackpool V Leeds United
Leicester V Burnley
Cardiff V Leeds United
Blackpool V Burnley
Brighton V Birmingham
Leicester V West Ham
Middlesbrough V Southampton

and go here looking for a big result

Birmingham V Reading
Leeds United V Leicester
West Ham V Hull

[Z175]

I'm a tiny bit worried that Saints might have got over their bad form.

Hard to say for sure but they've had a bad run, stayed second, and now have WD and are still there.

If we are (eventually) to nick second, we may need results at Southampton AND Birmingham. VERY Tough.

need to star looking at the six-pointers

True but we all know its where you cut the start of the form table!

We win FRiday we go two points behind them. That gap was huge at the beginning.phase of the season. A red blue graph would show the blue poised to leap ahead. Also psychologically, if they do go third it'll be interesting. Agreed they still look very good.though, just not so.easy for them now.

[Z175]

We just edged Hull out of 6th but lost at home to them a few games ago.

As so many teams are involved I think its too early to call 6 pointers, its more a third of the games are together 30 pointers!

Brum away though... Definitely 6 pointer!