The Snowball stat thread

[Snowball]

0,604 Minutes Played 40 Pts 15.10 Mins/Point Roberts
0,405 Minutes Played 25 Pts 16.20 Mins/Point Connolly

1,615 Minutes Played 74 Pts 21.82 Mins/Point Harte
1,599 Minutes Played 70 Pts 22.84 Mins/Point Le Fondre
1,895 Minutes Played 77 Pts 24.61 Mins/Point Kebe

0,745 Minutes Played 25 Pts 29.80 Mins/Point Griffin
1,517 Minutes Played 49 Pts 30.96 Mins/Point HRK
2,054 Minutes Played 65 Pts 31.60 Mins/Point Cummings

3,060 Minutes Played 95 Pts 32.21 Mins/Point Pearce
1,496 Minutes Played 46 Pts 32.52 Mins/Point Church
2,465 Minutes Played 75 Pts 32.87 Mins/Point McAnuff

2,699 Minutes Played 80 Pts 33.74 Mins/Point Gorkss
2,476 Minutes Played 72 Pts 34.39 Mins/Point Karacan

3,040 Minutes Played 85 Pts 35.76 Mins/Point Federici
2,020 Minutes Played 54 Pts 37.41 Mins/Point Hunt

2,788 Minutes Played 74 Pts 37.68 Mins/Point Leigertwood
0,924 Minutes Played 24 Pts 38.50 Mins/Point Tabb
1,198 Minutes Played 30 Pts 39.93 Mins/Point Mills


0,446 Minutes Played 20 Pts 22.30 Mins/Point Manset

[Snowball]

Bringing it Back to Football


Remember that the record-Breaking Reading side averaged 2.265 ppg over the whole season

We have been steadily improving throughout this run since Doncaster

Take a look at the average points achieved every 14 games (1-14, 2-15 etc)

The latest 14 (to Portsmouth) is now 12 wins from 14 = 36 points from 42 or 2.51 ppg = 118 Point season

Games-ppg

01-14 1.29 ppg - - 059 Point Season - - Mid Table
02-15 1.21 ppg - - 056 Point Season - - Low Mid Table
03-16 1.21 ppg - - 052 Point Season - - Low Mid Table
04-17 1.21 ppg - - 061 Point Season - - Low Mid Table
05-18 1.43 ppg - - 066 Point Season - - High Mid-Table
06-19 1.64 ppg - - 076 Point Season - - Play Off Position

07-20 1.64 ppg - - 080 Point Season - - Play Off Position From Doncaster Home Game Onwards
08-21 1.64 ppg - - 080 Point Season - - Play Off Position
09-22 1.79 ppg - - 082 Point Season - - 2nd/3rd
10-23 1.79 ppg - - 082 Point Season - - 2nd/3rd
11-24 1.93 ppg - - 089 Point Season - - Championship-Winning Form (This Season)
12-25 1.71 ppg - - 079 Point Season - - High Play-Offs
13-26 1.86 ppg - - 085 Point Season - - Championship-Winning Form, Possibly 2nd (This Season)
14-27 1.87 ppg - - 082 Point Season - - 2nd/3rd

15-28 1.93 ppg - - 089 Point Season - - Championship-Winning Form (This Season)
16-29 2.14 ppg - - 099 Point Season - - Championship-Winning Form (This Season)
17-30 2.14 ppg - - 099 Point Season - - Championship-Winning Form (This Season)
18-31 2.36 ppg - - 108 Point Season - - Record-Breaking Form Like 2005-06
19-32 2.36 ppg - - 108 Point Season - - Record-Breaking Form Like 2005-06
20-33 2.40 ppg - - 108 Point Season - - Record-Breaking Form Like 2005-06 (Up to Millwall Away)
21-34 2.57 ppg - - 118 Point Season - - MUCH better than the 106 Season Portsmouth H (63) <<<<<<<<

What follows is just an illustration only, based on IF we win. Will be adjusted as necessary


22-35 2.57 ppg - - 118 Point Season - - Leicester H (66)
23-36 2.57 ppg - - 118 Point Season - - Doncaster A (69)
24-37 2.57 ppg - - 118 Point Season - - Barnsley A (72)
25-38 2.57 ppg - - 118 Point Season - - Peterboro A (75)
26-39 2.79 ppg - - 128 Point Season - - Blackpool H (78)

[Snowball]

Bringing it Back to Football

After Portsmouth

Roberts Pairings

536 Minutes - Roberts-Hunt 6 Goals, 5 Major Contibutions
045 Minutes - Roberts-Le F. 1 Goals, 1 Major Contributions
023 Minutes - Roberts-Chch 0 Goals, 0 Major Contributionbs


6 Games, 6 Goals 5 Assists for Roberts Partnerships

078 Minutes - Roberts-Hunt W 1-0 Roberts (1) Hunt (0) Bristol Hunt Assist, brilliant flick to Roberts , Roberts Assist (Winning Pen)

067 Minutes - Roberts-Hunt W 2-0 Roberts (1) Hunt (0) Coventry Roberts Assist (back heel for Kebe Goal)
023 Minutes - Roberts-Chch W 2-0 Roberts (0) Chch (0) Coventry

090 Minutes - Roberts-Hunt W 1-0 Roberts (0) Hunt (1) Derby
076 Minutes - Roberts-Hunt W 1-0 Roberts (1) Hunt (0) Burnley
090 Minutes - Roberts-Hunt W 2-0 Roberts (0) Hunt (1) Middlesboro Roberts Assist (Won FK Harte Scored)

065 Minutes - Roberts-Hunt W 2-1 Roberts (0) Hunt (0) Millwall
025 Minutes - Roberts-Le F. W 2-1 Roberts (0) Le F. (1) Millwall Roberts Assist for Le Fondre winning goal

070 Minutes - Roberts-Hunt W 1-0 Roberts (0) Hunt (1) Portsmouth Roberts Major Contribution Assist for Humt Goal
025 Minutes - Roberts-Le F. W 1-0 Roberts (0) Le F. (0) Portsmouth

604 Minutes - Roberts-Other W7 10-1

Goals:
3 Roberts
3 Hunt
1 Le Fondre

Major Contributions
5 Roberts
1 Hunt

Major Contributions are awarded for straightforward conventional assists, for a pass resulting in another player winning a penalty, for winning a penalty whether scored or not, for forcing an own goal and for any other major contribution such as will be described

[Snowball]

Six Game Form

04 Points DWLLLL

12 Points WDWDWD

08 Points DDLWLW

15 Points WLWWWW

12 Points LWLWWW

12 Points WWWW (with two games to play)

[Snowball]

34 Games.

Compare the first 17 with the second 17



DWLLLLWDWDWDDDLWL

21 Points = 57 Point Season



WWLWWWWLWLWWWWWWW

42 Points = 114 Point Season

[Snowball]

This Season - Last Season


We are a full fifteen points better off than this time last season,
so IF we were to match last year's final 12 games, we would finish on

92 points


03 Reading Played 34 +16 GD - 63 Points --- 2011-12

10 Reading Played 34 +12 GD - 48 Points --- 2010-11

[Snowball]

This Season - Last Season


We are a full fifteen points better off than this time last season,
so IF we were to match last year's final 12 games, we would finish on

92 points


03 Reading Played 34 +16 GD - 63 Points --- 2011-12

10 Reading Played 34 +12 GD - 48 Points --- 2010-11

12 Games to go...

That "MATCH" might be hard (cough)


Our last 12 last season was W9 D2 L1

[JC]

This Season - Last Season


We are a full fifteen points better off than this time last season,
so IF we were to match last year's final 12 games, we would finish on

92 points


03 Reading Played 34 +16 GD - 63 Points --- 2011-12

10 Reading Played 34 +12 GD - 48 Points --- 2010-11

12 Games to go...

That "MATCH" might be hard (cough)


Our last 12 last season was W9 D2 L1

However, if we assume that we need, say, 84 points for auto (which is better than the 10 year average of 81) then we need 21 points from those 12 games which is 7 wins out of 12

[Snowball]

That "MATCH" might be hard (cough)
Our last 12 last season was W9 D2 L1

However, if we assume that we need, say, 84 points for auto (which is better than the 10 year average of 81) then we need 21 points from those 12 games which is 7 wins out of 12

Agreed. I still suspect 84 will be enough for second.

Saints are on 66 and have to average 2 ppg to get to 88. I doubt they will get that high.

And WHU, if they average 2ppg would get to 90.

The chances of them both managing that are IMO 100-1 against

If you look at the Last-8 Form they ARE on good-enough form

1 2.62 ppg Reading
2 2.12 ppg West Ham
3 2.00 ppg Southampton


But if people say these two clubs ("because they have Form X") can do it, then so can we.

On last-8 form we are gaining half a point per game on WHU and 0.62 ppg on Saints.

All other things being equal (ie if we three maintain this form) we would gain 6 points on WHU and gain 7 on Southampton PLUS Doncaster away.

I am, of course, for the exercise, ignoring the complexities of the two six-pointers)

This is where we are now

1 35 +30 66 Southampton
2 33 +21 64 West Ham Utd
3 34 +16 63 Reading


Take the extreme case that WHU win both their games in hand and we win at Donny (not guaranteed)


1 35 +25 70 West Ham Utd
2 35 +30 66 Southampton
3 35 +18 66 Reading

and remember that we are currently gaining half-a-point per game on WHU, 5 points in 10 games

If Saints + WHU was our last 2 games, based on this form (all three clubs) AND I KNOW IT WON'T HAPPEN EXACTLY LIKE THIS



1 45 +25 91 West Ham Utd (70 + (2.12 x 10))
3 44 +30 90 Reading (66+ 2.62 x 9)
2 45 +40 86 Southampton (66+ (2 x 10)


What I'm trying to say, first taking the two "Cup Finals" out is that on last-8 form we will catch both teams
but if we lost at WHU they'd be champions, and if we lost at Saints as well we'd only squeeze in by a point.

But we virtually "have to" win at Doncaster and win our home games to stay in the hunt. It's highly unlikely,
we will maintain 2.62 ppg for the next 12 games, virtually certain we won't (10 wins and a draw required)

but then I don't believe WHU or Saints will keep it up either. I would just like is to WNG x 2 or 3 and see the
others drop points.


(BTW, if you look at last 12, last 14, last 15 or last 18 games we look even stronger)

[JC]

If we were to win the next 4 (winnable) games then that would leave us requiring 3 wins from the last 8 games. In that case I think we could afford to lose to both Saints & West Ham

[Wycombe Royal]

If we were to win the next 4 (winnable) games then that would leave us requiring 3 wins from the last 8 games. In that case I think we could afford to lose to both Saints & West Ham

We can't lose both those games as they are the two most important in the run as they are against our direct competitors for the top two spots.

[JC]

If we were to win the next 4 (winnable) games then that would leave us requiring 3 wins from the last 8 games. In that case I think we could afford to lose to both Saints & West Ham

We can't lose both those games as they are the two most important in the run as they are against our direct competitors for the top two spots.

Still think we could get 3 wins from the other games

[Snowball]

I really think the next four are "key"

I don't think any of them will be easy

H Leicester
A Doncaster
A Barnsley
A Peterboro


but it is certainly POSSIBLE, based on our form and theirs that we could win that lot and be around 5-0

P38 GD +21 75 Points

With 6 games to go. We would almost certainly be in the top two and given ourselves room to screw up and still hang in there.

But I agree we need to WW, WL, WD or DD at Saints and WHU. If we lose both we'll probably need to win nine of the the other ten games, too big an ask, surely?

[M-U-R-T-Y]

Snowers I would be interested to see how many points we've gathered in the league since the start of our winning run of 8 games last season? Works out about a whole season since then, doesn't it?

[Ian Royal]

If we were to win the next 4 (winnable) games then that would leave us requiring 3 wins from the last 8 games. In that case I think we could afford to lose to both Saints & West Ham

We can't lose both those games as they are the two most important in the run as they are against our direct competitors for the top two spots.

Still think we could get 3 wins from the other games

Lose to both of them and we'll need more than 7 wins.

[Snowball]

Snowers I would be interested to see how many points we've gathered in the league since the start of our winning run of 8 games last season? Works out about a whole season since then, doesn't it?

09-02-01 End of 2010-11
01-01-04 Bad Run start of 2011-12
18-05-05 The Great Run Since September 17

28-08-10 46 Games and Exactly 92 Points, exactly 2 ppg!!

[Ian Royal]

Pissing hell, that's awesomeness. Especially seeing as we finished last season and started this season a bit lamely.

As a point of interest only, not saying this is how good we are or placing any meaning on it, but remove the last 4 games of last season and the first 6 of this and we're averaging: 2.30 points a game, or 106 points over a full season.

Jeezy Crimbotasticals.

[Maguire]

Pissing hell, that's awesomeness. Especially seeing as we finished last season and started this season a bit lamely.

As a point of interest only, not saying this is how good we are or placing any meaning on it, but remove the last 4 games of last season and the first 6 of this and we're averaging: 2.30 points a game, or 106 points over a full season.

Jeezy Crimbotasticals.

Yeah the numbers will look big when you selectively remove bad results

[Ian Royal]

Pissing hell, that's awesomeness. Especially seeing as we finished last season and started this season a bit lamely.

As a point of interest only, not saying this is how good we are or placing any meaning on it, but remove the last 4 games of last season and the first 6 of this and we're averaging: 2.30 points a game, or 106 points over a full season.

Jeezy Crimbotasticals.

Yeah the numbers will look big when you selectively remove bad results

I know, but it's how big that's impressive. It's not like I'm putting any weight on it or suggesting it means anything much for what comes next. I did reference that when I posted it.

[Snowball]

Snowers I would be interested to see how many points we've gathered in the league since the start of our winning run of 8 games last season? Works out about a whole season since then, doesn't it?

09-02-01 End of 2010-11
01-01-04 Bad Run start of 2011-12
18-05-05 The Great Run Since September 17

28-08-10 46 Games and Exactly 92 Points, exactly 2 ppg!!

Just in case anyone is in doubt, the 46 games above are 46 consecutive league games, as requested.