The Snowball stat thread

[Snowball]

Yours is a reasonable point, Ian.

There was almost bound to be a negative reaction last season
the moment the possibility of "automatic" went... a few iffy but "expected" results

The first six this season after losing Mills and then Long, playing 5 different FBs in 5 games (and Khumalo)...

[chilipepper91]

Snowers I would be interested to see how many points we've gathered in the league since the start of our winning run of 8 games last season? Works out about a whole season since then, doesn't it?

09-02-01 End of 2010-11
01-01-04 Bad Run start of 2011-12
18-05-05 The Great Run Since September 17

28-08-10 46 Games and Exactly 92 Points, exactly 2 ppg!!

Just in case anyone is in doubt, the 46 games above are 46 consecutive league games, as requested.

I expect to hear this on the RFC Twitter feed imminently

[SydenhamRoyal]

Jeezy Crimbotasticals. [/quote]

Is that a word? I'm sure that's not a word.

[Maguire]

Pissing hell, that's awesomeness. Especially seeing as we finished last season and started this season a bit lamely.

As a point of interest only, not saying this is how good we are or placing any meaning on it, but remove the last 4 games of last season and the first 6 of this and we're averaging: 2.30 points a game, or 106 points over a full season.

Jeezy Crimbotasticals.

Yeah the numbers will look big when you selectively remove bad results

I know, but it's how big that's impressive. It's not like I'm putting any weight on it or suggesting it means anything much for what comes next. I did reference that when I posted it.

Yep, you did qualify it tbf - perhaps on reflection I might've chosen to omit the

[Ian Royal]

Jeezy Crimbotasticals.

Is that a word? I'm sure that's not a word.

No I just made it up because I wanted to.

Thanks Maguire, I'll take the rest on the chin...

although I'd be surprised if you could find many 46 consecutive game periods that you could get to show a points average of over 100 by removing 10 consecutive games. Or even two shorter consecutive runs of games that add up to 10.

[Snowball]

West Ham 1-1 Watford
Brighton 2-2 Cardiff

Form Since September 17th


1 28 18-05-05 39-20 +19 59 2.11 Reading

2 28 15-07-06 39-26 +13 52 1.86 West Ham United

3 29 14-09-06 48-25 +23 51 1.76 Southampton

=====================================================

4 28 13-09-06 45-25 +20 48 1.71 Birmingham City
5 27 12-08-07 28-20 +08 44 1.63 Hull City
6 28 12-09-07 31-30 +01 45 1.61 Middlesbrough
7 28 11-10-07 43-37 +06 43 1.54 Cardiff City
8 29 12-09-08 50-41 +09 45 1.55 Blackpool
9 29 12-07-10 41-38 +03 43 1.48 Leeds


While the next 12 games for RFC, West Ham and Saints will probably NOT match the above form...


IF this form continues

WHU should pick up 22 more points, RFC 25, Southampton 19

That would result in

88 Reading
87 West Ham
85 Southampton



(There are however 2 x 6-Pointers to screw this up, and Saints have picked up recently)

[Royal With Cheese]

(There are however 2 x 6-Pointers to screw this up, and Saints have picked up recently)

Saints were lucky on Saturday and only managed a draw yesterday. I know that equates to 4 out of 6 points though.

My gut feeling is if we don't lose to either team (a draw will do) we'll get promoted.

There, I've said it. That's the kybosh well and truly put on Reading's season.

[Snowball]

Thing is, now as we get closer to the end of the season,
a dumb defeat or a brilliant win against the odds has a massive effect



The ppg averages mean a lot now, but as the number of games left diminshes
each game becomes a much bigger deal.


So, for example, even if we DID average 2.11 ppg for the 12 games, but Saints/WHU beat us...

[MmmMonsterMunch]

(There are however 2 x 6-Pointers to screw this up, and Saints have picked up recently)

Saints were lucky on Saturday and only managed a draw yesterday. I know that equates to 4 out of 6 points though.

My gut feeling is if we don't lose to either team (a draw will do) we'll get promoted.

There, I've said it. That's the kybosh well and truly put on Reading's season.

Fcuk it. Win the other 10 & lose to both of them & we'll be champs!

[Royal With Cheese]

(There are however 2 x 6-Pointers to screw this up, and Saints have picked up recently)

Saints were lucky on Saturday and only managed a draw yesterday. I know that equates to 4 out of 6 points though.

My gut feeling is if we don't lose to either team (a draw will do) we'll get promoted.

There, I've said it. That's the kybosh well and truly put on Reading's season.

Fcuk it. Win the other 10 & lose to both of them & we'll be champs!

I'd take that!

[JC]

I just realised. If we won the next 5 we would go to West Ham looking for the 13th in a row

[M-U-R-T-Y]

Is that a word? I'm sure that's not a word.

Correct gr8 m8, it's two words.

[SydenhamRoyal]

Jeezy Crimbotasticals.

Is that a word? I'm sure that's not a word.

No I just made it up because I wanted to.


You make up words, Snowball makes up stats - where can I find hard facts

[Ian Royal]

I don't know, but you can find real factsssssssssssssssss from Sir Dodger Royal.

[Mr Angry]

If you were to look at each of the next 4 games in isolation, you would think that they are all very winnable.

Win them, and we have 75 points, pretty well ensuring that we are in the Play Offs again.

Win them, and we are likely to be top 2.

My view is that we need 87 points, rather than 84, to be top 2 come the end of the season; 8 more wins. Win the next 4, then half of the rest and we have that number of points.

If we can ensure that we don't lose to Saints and West Ham, I also think it will be job done.

[exileinleeds]

It is interesting reading KUMB that while they dismiss us- our run must come to an end soon- they are not happy with their home form. Not good at all apparently.

But they are on a "great run" at the moment...WDWDWD Unbeaten in 6.

I would be more confident of getting points at UP than at St Mary's. Leics at home though...well our unbeaten run is going to end soon.

[JC]

If you were to look at each of the next 4 games in isolation, you would think that they are all very winnable.

Win them, and we have 75 points, pretty well ensuring that we are in the Play Offs again.

Win them, and we are likely to be top 2.

My view is that we need 87 points, rather than 84, to be top 2 come the end of the season; 8 more wins. Win the next 4, then half of the rest and we have that number of points.

If we can ensure that we don't lose to Saints and West Ham, I also think it will be job done.

Not sure why you think it should be 87. In the last 10 years 84 would have been enough 7 times. The average requirement in that time was 81 and in the last 20 years the average is 82. This is based on the average for 7th place plus 1 point.

[Tails]

After Cardiff at home we were 1-3-3.

Since Cardiff we are 9-1-1 at home.

Skillz.

[M-U-R-T-Y]

It is interesting reading KUMB that while they dismiss us- our run must come to an end soon- they are not happy with their home form. Not good at all apparently.

But they are on a "great run" at the moment...WDWDWD Unbeaten in 6.

I would be more confident of getting points at UP than at St Mary's. Leics at home though...well our unbeaten run is going to end soon.

If we keep up our form, then I'd be happy for West Ham to keep up theirs.

[Snowball]

West Ham 1-1 Doncaster
Saints 2-0 Barnsley
Reading 3-1 Leicester

Form Since September 17th


1 29 19-05-05 42-21 +21 62 2.14 ppg Reading (98-Point season Form)

2 29 15-08-06 40-27 +13 53 1.83 ppg West Ham United 84-Point season Form)

3 30 15-09-06 50-25 +25 54 1.80 ppg Southampton (83-Point season Form)

=====================================================

4 29 13-10-06 46-26 +20 49 1.69 Birmingham City
5 28 12-09-07 30-22 +08 45 1.61 Hull City
6 28 12-09-07 31-30 +01 45 1.61 Middlesbrough
7 28 11-10-07 43-37 +06 43 1.54 Cardiff City
8 30 12-09-09 51-44 +07 45 1.50 Blackpool
9 29 12-07-10 41-38 +03 43 1.48 Leeds