The Snowball stat thread

[JC]

In the last 8 games we have made up 11 points on West Ham and 5 on Southampton (but thay have played 1 more)

Astounding

So what you're saying is that in the last 8 games Southampton have played one more game than us. That's certainly a worthy inclusion on this thread.

What I am saying is that we have made up 11 points on West Ham and 5 on Saints but it would have been 8 if they had not played 1 more game than us.

[Snowball]

Now it's getting closer to crunch time, the disparity between
home and away games to play and home form v away form is
starting to look more and more relevant.

For example 45 out of 69 of Southampton's points were won at home (2.368 ppg)
Away they are 1.412 ppg. Note they have 4 left at home, 6 away

Boro have 4H 6A but they are better away than at home
Cardiff are VG at home and have 7 home games left..


The projected table below is based on SEASON's form NOT "Form since September 17th."

NOTES:

Reading are performing MUCH better than their season form
(Last 6, Last 8 = 3ppg, Last 12 = 2.50, Last 20 = 2.4ppg. Figures below based on 1.89 ppg)

Southampton Season Form is 1.91 ppg.. Last 6 = 2.33, Last 8 = 2.25, Last 12 =1.83 , last 20 =1.65

So they have improved for 6/8 games, but this run isn't yet that long

Points per Game

P 20 P 12 P 08 P 06
1.65 1.83 2.25 2.33 Southampton
2.40 2.50 3.00 3.00 Reading

So expect Saints to do better than "season form" and West ham to do a little worse.
But note that Reading are still outdoing Saints over the last 6, 8, 9, 12, 15, or 20 games

Which suggests to me
Saints will finish on 85 + their result v Reading
Reading will finish on 84 plus their results at West Ham and Southampton
West Ham I think 82-83 plus their result v Reading


Projected Table based on SEASON's form not since September 17th.

11 Games 5-6 (Projected 87) - - - - - (09.17 Home 11.65 Away) West Ham
11 Games 4-7 (Projected 87) - - - - - (07.79 Home 12.69 Away) Reading
=================================================
10 Games 4-6 (Projected 86) - - - - - (09.47 Home 08.47 Away) Southampton
11 Games 7-4 (Projected 83) - - - - - (14.00 Home 05.27 Away) Cardiff
12 Games 4-8 (Projected 80) - - - - - (06.44 Home 15.00 Away) Middlesboro
12 Games 5-7 (Projected 74) - - - - - (10.28 Home 08.33 Away) Birmingham
================================================
10 Games 5-5 (Projected 74) - - - - - (09.72 Home 06.39 Away) Brighton
12 Games 5-7 (Projected 73) - - - - - (08.61 Home 10.06 Away) Hull
10 Games 6-4 (Projected 72) - - - - - (11.29 Home 05.05 Away) Blackpool



Season Points-per-Game Home-Away

2.368 ppg Home 1.412 ppg Away Southampton
1.833 ppg Home 1.941 ppg Away West Ham
1.957 ppg Home 1.813 ppg Away Reading
1.611 ppg Home 1.875 ppg Away Middlesboro
1.944 ppg Home 1.278 ppg Away Brighton
2.000 ppg Home 1.316 ppg Away Cardiff
2.056 ppg Home 1.188 ppg Away Birmingham
1.882 ppg Home 1.263 ppg Away Blackpool
1.722 ppg Home 1.438 ppg Away Hull

[Snowball]

Our opposition on current form is (Home games bold)

My thinking is we need to be winning the first 7 games here
and hoping for points from the last four games.

Drop points in these seven, we have to get results from the last 4

But win the 7, the other 4 almost certainly won't matter.

22 Barnsley
20 Doncaster
17 Peterboro
16 Leeds
12 Blackpool
11 Forest
09 Palace

08 West Ham (WHU have drawn their last four home games)
07 Birmingham
04 Brighton
02 Southampton


In Match Order

Form - League Pos

20-23 A Doncaster
22-17 A Barnsley
17-18 A Peterborough
12-08 H Blackpool
08-02 A West Ham

16-10 H Leeds
04-05 A Brighton
02-01 A Southampton
11-20 H Forest
09-11 H Palace
07-07A Birmingham FLC

[Snowball]

Looks like the bookies are awake

11/8 Southampton
13/8 West Ham
19/8 Reading

That's to WIN it, not promotion

[Snowball]

And fractional favourites over WHU to finish top two


48/100 Reading
49/100 WHU

[Snowball]

I know it's WNG, but do people realise we can go joint top on points
Tuesday night, and maybe 6 points clear of third by Saturday evening?

Most of our challengers have really difficult games

West Ham aren't playing midweek, and have a really tough game at Leeds on Saturday,

If ever "Make hay while the sun shine" applied, it's this week.

If we can just win these next two and Millwall do us a favour, we could be TOP


Middlesbrough 0-2 Leeds United (so far)

Doncaster V Reading
Barnsley V Reading



Leicester V Birmingham

Cardiff V Hull
Birmingham V Middlesbrough
Blackpool V Brighton
Crystal Palace V Hull
Cardiff V Burnley

Leeds United V West Ham
Millwall V Southampton

[Rex]

I do like the stats this time of the season Snowball. More telling, more relevant and thankfully we are up there to keep the chase on. Dare we dream.

[SydenhamRoyal]

[quote="Snowball"]Our opposition on current form is (Home games bold)

In Match Order

Form - League Pos

20-23 A Doncaster
22-17 A Barnsley
17-18 A Peterborough
12-08 H Blackpool
08-02 A West Ham

Win those 5 and we can change the words of our favourite song ... "we've matched our record, 13 wins in a row". And hopefully we need only sing it for one game before changing it again ...

[SWLR]

There is only one important game and one important stat - the next game and a win.

[MmmMonsterMunch]

I think we're all agreed this next week is HUGE. Should we do the unthinkable & win all 3 of these games with all the travelling etc, we really are set up well for the run in & could probably afford to drop points in the West Ham / Saints games.

[Snowball]

I think we're all agreed this next week is HUGE. Should we do the unthinkable & win all 3 of these games with all the travelling etc, we really are set up well for the run in & could probably afford to drop points in the West Ham / Saints games.

Agreed. More importantly we will go into the top two and be at least level with Saints
who may drop points somewhere.

Then, if we can squeeze out one more win (H to Blackpool who are looking dodgier suddenly)

We could go to West Ham ALREADY on 78 Points, with 7 games to go.

If we do, I think we'll win at WHU who will surely be sh!tting it by then

[Snowball]

Next 13 Days


If we can win the three away games we will go top
and I can see us beating Blackpool then and being top when we got to West Ham

Reading

A Doncaster
A Barnsley
A Peterboro
H Blackpool

None of these easy but 4 wins certainly possible

West Ham

A Leeds
H Middlesboro
A Burnley

Two REALLY tough away games, and a really difficult home game.

They may only manage LDD, even LLD

Southampton

A Millwall
A Hull
H Doncaster

Should be a regulation win v Doncaster, and a decent chance of a win at Millwall
but point at Hull would be a VG result and could easily lose

[Snowball]

Table Since September 17th (Doncaster Home)

4 more wins than any other team

8 points more than Southampton in one less game

Best defence in the period

Second-best GD in the period

Gained 9 points on West Ham

1 29 19-05-05 15 Clean Sheets - - 05 FTS 42-21 +21 - 62 Points - 2.14 ppg Reading
2 29 15-08-06 12 Clean Sheets - - 06 FTS 40-27 +13 - 53 Points - 1.83 ppg West Ham United
3 30 15-09-06 12 Clean Sheets - - 06 FTS 50-25 +25 - 54 Points - 1.80 ppg Southampton

4 29 13-10-06 10 Clean Sheets - - 06 FTS 46-26 +20 - 49 Points - 1.69 ppg Birmingham City
5 28 12-09-07 13 Clean Sheets - - 09 FTS 30-22 +08 - 45 Points - 1.61 ppg Hull City
6 29 12-10-07 08 Clean Sheets - - 05 FTS 45-38 +07 - 46 Points - 1.59 ppg Cardiff City

7 29 12-09-08 11 Clean Sheets - - 11 FTS 31-32 -01 - 45 Points - 1.55 ppg Middlesbrough
8 30 13-07-10 09 Clean Sheets - - 07 FTS 43-38 +05 - 46 Points - 1.53 ppg Leeds United
9 30 12-09-09 06 Clean Sheets - - 05 FTS 51-44 +07 - 45 Points - 1.50 ppg Blackpool


IF and I repeat IF the top three maintain this "Since Sept 17" ppg for the rest of the season...

90 Reading FC
87 Southampton
==============
86 West Ham

It should be noted, however, that a defeat at WHU or Saints has a large effect on this "Final Table"

[Mr Angry]

I think we're all agreed this next week is HUGE. Should we do the unthinkable & win all 3 of these games with all the travelling etc, we really are set up well for the run in & could probably afford to drop points in the West Ham / Saints games.

Disagree; we have to get draws as a minimum at these 2 games; not to do so opens up a gap.

[Snowball]

I think we're all agreed this next week is HUGE. Should we do the unthinkable & win all 3 of these games with all the travelling etc, we really are set up well for the run in & could probably afford to drop points in the West Ham / Saints games.

Disagree; we have to get draws as a minimum at these 2 games; not to do so opens up a gap.

While losing at either may not be a good thing
I suspect we will be above one of them, possibly
both of them when we go to play there


So no gap opening, but a defeat might allow them to catch us

[Mr Angry]

I think we're all agreed this next week is HUGE. Should we do the unthinkable & win all 3 of these games with all the travelling etc, we really are set up well for the run in & could probably afford to drop points in the West Ham / Saints games.

Disagree; we have to get draws as a minimum at these 2 games; not to do so opens up a gap.

While losing at either may not be a good thing
I suspect we will be above one of them, possibly
both of them when we go to play there


So no gap opening, but a defeat might allow them to catch us

And therefore, NOT a good idea to accept a defeat against either.....

We HAVE to go for the jugular against these teams; they will attack, as they are at home, and that will play to OUR strengths. It would not surprise me in the least if we beat West Ham, and get something out of the Saints game (that game might decide who will be Champions btw!!)

Incidentally Snowy - do you still think the Reading v Brum game will be a decider for an auto spot between the 2 sides?

[Snowball]

Incidentally Snowy - do you still think the Reading v Brum game will be a decider for an auto spot between the 2 sides?

Didn't say that, if I remember rightly. I said it was likely to be a huge game for one or both of us.

I thought they might need a win to win the league (but they have blown that for sure)
and I thought we might need a win to nick second.

I now think needing to win last day (to get second) will be a bit of a failure...

[MmmMonsterMunch]

If we won the other 9 and lost against West Ham & Saints we would be champions simple as that!

[Snowball]

If we won the other 9 and lost against West Ham & Saints we would be champions simple as that!

Yeah but do we only want 93 points and
WHU-Saints saying they are better than us?

[SLAMMED]

If we won the other 9 and lost against West Ham & Saints we would be champions simple as that!

Yeah but do we only want 93 points and
WHU-Saints saying they are better than us?

If we got promoted I would give a toss what they said.