Lowest spenders

[Harpers So Solid Crew]

Not at Arsenal they dont!!!

[Royal Lady]

I'd be far more interested to see where we lie in the wage table as that's a much better indicator of where we'll finish.

I'm sorry, but I just don't agree with this. So I'll say so - time will tell who is correct. And, anyway, Ian knows there will be few teams in the PL who have spent less than us in total - so by that reckoning we're doomed.

[MrWestHam]

Not at Arsenal they dont!!!

Arsenal get gutted every year.

And RL, stop being so pissing literal. It's not a guaranteed indicator, just a very strong one. There are ALWAYS statistical outliers in any model.

This is true actually. My old economics lecturer did some giggery pokery comparing wage bills with success and they show a very strong correlation. Arsenal actually prove it the other way to what's being suggested by some of you - they consistently finish third despite having a wage bill that should have them finishing 6/7th.

FTIW (sod all), I think all three promoted clubs will be ok this year from what I've seen so far.

[Alexander Litvinenko]

I'd be far more interested to see where we lie in the wage table as that's a much better indicator of where we'll finish.

I'm sorry, but I just don't agree with this. So I'll say so - time will tell who is correct. And, anyway, Ian knows there will be few teams in the PL who have spent less than us in total - so by that reckoning we're doomed.

Scientific studies by properly qualified football economists prove that there is a 92% correlation between total salary bill and league success. Whether you happen to believe it or not it's absolutely true.

[Snowball]

Ian - where do you think Leicester City were last year in the "wages table" and where did they end up? The wage table is no real indicator of future performance at all.

IN GENERAL, the top sides are the top spenders, with certain managers managing to beat the trend.

Arsenal do well in terms both of transfer spend and lower wages than the Manchesters/Chelsea, but they are still relatively big spenders.




BUT IT DOESN'T FOLLOW that all you have to do is spend lots of money.


For one thing, agents/players "sniff out" when clubs are playing silly buggers
and thus clubs going a bit daft don't get value for money

[Ian Royal]

prefer to watch the league table, as is the final indicator.

Yeah, but that's pretty meaningless as of right now in terms of predicting the end of the season league table. Whereas a wages league table would be pretty good at that.

Tell that to West Ham fans, relegated couple of times now, and they pay mega bucks. Or the big payers in the Championship, who failed to go up while little Reading stormed away, in the quiet way we do things.

92% correlation does not mean paying big wages guarantees survival. Or that as long as you spend big, regardless of your quality of spending, you'll do well.

[Ian Royal]

Edit: Thanks Dirk.

And as I've said, I think there's plenty of room for us to be higher than three or four others on the wage front given Roberts, Pog, Guthrie who are all likely to be on substantial wages. And even if we are 19th out of 20. We only need to slip that correlation by a small amount to survive.

And I'd argue we've shown a fairly good ability to slightly buck the spending correlation positively.

[Stuboo]

We're going to be fine. It's not so much how much you spend, but getting value for money and spending on the right players. I think we've done that.

[Jimbo]

I was beginning to think I was the only one who is happy with our summer signings.

It seems to me certain people (with lower IQs) get all excited over the utter joke that is tranfer deadline day. We did our business earlier on to allow the new players to bed in. I'd rather we did that then start throwing money around on the last day of transfers.
If we'd spent a couple of million each on Pog, Guthrie and McCleary no one would complain. I think the club should be applauded for bringing in quality players for free, some with Premier experience, who have fitted into the team seamlessly.

IMO we have a decent squad which is as good as and better than enough teams in the Prem for us to be comfortable. We have cover and competition in all positions with players keen to prove themselves in their first season in the top flight. That's a pretty potent combination.

Personally, I'd be more worried about next season.

[ManchesterRoyals]

Im also happy with our summer signings thought it was very good business but i think we feel a bit short and could have signed a couple more quality signings just to strengthen in certain areas

[Stuboo]

I was beginning to think I was the only one who is happy with our summer signings.

It seems to me certain people (with lower IQs) get all excited over the utter joke that is tranfer deadline day. We did our business earlier on to allow the new players to bed in. I'd rather we did that then start throwing money around on the last day of transfers.
If we'd spent a couple of million each on Pog, Guthrie and McCleary no one would complain. I think the club should be applauded for bringing in quality players for free, some with Premier experience, who have fitted into the team seamlessly.

IMO we have a decent squad which is as good as and better than enough teams in the Prem for us to be comfortable. We have cover and competition in all positions with players keen to prove themselves in their first season in the top flight. That's a pretty potent combination.

Personally, I'd be more worried about next season.

That is exactly where I am at too.

[melonhead]

Ian - where do you think Leicester City were last year in the "wages table" and where did they end up? The wage table is no real indicator of future performance at all.

always have data points that dont fit, but taken across the board wages are a much better indicator than fees

[melonhead]

I'd be far more interested to see where we lie in the wage table as that's a much better indicator of where we'll finish.

I'm sorry, but I just don't agree with this. So I'll say so - time will tell who is correct. And, anyway, Ian knows there will be few teams in the PL who have spent less than us in total - so by that reckoning we're doomed.

its statistical FACT though

[melonhead]

Yeah, but that's pretty meaningless as of right now in terms of predicting the end of the season league table. Whereas a wages league table would be pretty good at that.

Tell that to West Ham fans, relegated couple of times now, and they pay mega bucks. Or the big payers in the Championship, who failed to go up while little Reading stormed away, in the quiet way we do things.

92% correlation does not mean paying big wages guarantees survival. Or that as long as you spend big, regardless of your quality of spending, you'll do well.

no one said it did

[Alexander Litvinenko]

Think of it as "buying more tickets for the lottery" - it doesn't guarantee you winning it.

[ManchesterRoyals]

Think of it as "buying more tickets for the lottery" - it doesn't guarantee you winning it.

Yeah but u stand a better chance of winning

[Alexander Litvinenko]

Think of it as "buying more tickets for the lottery" - it doesn't guarantee you winning it.

Yeah but u stand a better chance of winning

That's the point!

[RobRoyal]

Think of it as "buying more tickets for the lottery" - it doesn't guarantee you winning it.

Except the statistical correlation between outlay and winnings on the lottery would be very slight at low quantities, whereas the correlation between wages and league position is very strong.

[Alexander Litvinenko]

Think of it as "buying more tickets for the lottery" - it doesn't guarantee you winning it.

Except the statistical correlation between outlay and winnings on the lottery would be very slight at low quantities, whereas the correlation between wages and league position is very strong.

Agreed, it was an over-simplification.

But the key point - missed by so many - is that it's only the correlation between wages and league position that has any statistical relevance.

There's much less of a correlation between transfer spend and league position, because of factors like Bosman transfers, youth development and discovering the likes of Kevin Doyle.

[melonhead]

you also have to remember that with win bonuses and league position bonus' the correlation is to be expected. and may be the result of money being payed after success, not the other way round