BBC vs Get Reading.

[marlowuk]

So who is right?

I think we can relax in the sense that we are not going to be relegated but are we actually mathematically certain to avoid the drop? Both comments below were delivered after our 0 - 1 victory over Bolton.

BBC - Reading's 1-0 win at Bolton meant the Royals are mathematically assured of their place in the Championship next season.

Get Reading - And although Reading are not mathematically safe, the general feeling is they will have enough to get over the line.

Snowball?

[Ravel]

There are 46 games in a season, MK Dons are in 22nd place at the moment and they have played 39 games, leaving 7 left to play. At 3 points a win, that's a maximum of 21 points they can still gain. They are currently on 37 points, which means that they could potentially end the season on 58 points.

Reading currently have 48 points. So either it looks like MK Dons can still overtake us, or I can't do mental arithmetics at 4am.

We are safe from finishing in last position though, as we're 22 points off 24th place.

[CountryRoyal]

Bizarrely GetReading, though considering BBC these days maybe that isn't such a surprise.

I think we can blame lazy journalism rather than a blatant ignorance of the concept of mathematical certainty.

[Stranded]

Bizarrely GetReading, though considering BBC these days maybe that isn't such a surprise.

I think we can blame lazy journalism rather than a blatant ignorance of the concept of mathematical certainty.

Unless they've gone through the fixture list with a fine toothcomb and seen that there are enough games between the sides placed 14-24 that it is impossible for us to be passed by enough sides to end up in the bottom 3.

[Sutekh]

Lazy journalism. Reading - and all other sides in the bottom half of the division are not mathematically safe from relegation.It's just very unlikely that any side with more than 45 points at the moment is likely to go down as it would require a large turnaround in form from one of the three hopeless cases at the bottom.

[Forbury Lion]

I reckon we are statistically safe, although I don't have the statistics to hand to prove this.

Mathematically safe is the next target, followed by realistically safe (baring a points deduction for failing to fulfill a fixture or insolvency) then definitely safe.

[LWJ]

We aren't mathematically out of the playoffs either..

[LUX]

plus we can still win the Premiership next season.

[genome]

And the Champions League the year after that.

[marlowuk]

Bizarrely GetReading, though considering BBC these days maybe that isn't such a surprise.

I think we can blame lazy journalism rather than a blatant ignorance of the concept of mathematical certainty.

Unless they've gone through the fixture list with a fine toothcomb and seen that there are enough games between the sides placed 14-24 that it is impossible for us to be passed by enough sides to end up in the bottom 3.

That is exactly the question. Maybe Snowball is still working on it?

[Sutekh]

Guess for yourselves....

Remaining MK Dons fixtures

5 Apr > Wolves (h)
9 Apr > Rotherham (h)
16 Apr > Preston (a)
19 Apr > Sheff Wed (a)
23 Apr > Brentford (h)
30 Apr > Ipswich (a)
7 May > Nottm Forest (h)

Remaining Charlton fixtures

5 Apr > Ipswich (a)
9 Apr > QPR (a)
16 Apr > Derby (h)
19 Apr > Bolton (a)
23 Apr > Brighton (h)
30 Apr > Leeds (a)
7 May > Burnley (h)

[Lower West]

Guess for yourselves....

Remaining MK Dons fixtures

5 Apr > Wolves (h)
9 Apr > Rotherham (h)
16 Apr > Preston (a)
19 Apr > Sheff Wed (a)
23 Apr > Brentford (h)
30 Apr > Ipswich (a)
7 May > Nottm Forest (h)

For a team fighting for survival that's not a bad fixture list.

[Ian Royal]

The way the fixtures run, we could mathematically be in the relegation zone after four games by my reckoning.
MK win 4 = 49
Fulham win 3 = 50
Rotherham win 2, draw 1, lose 1(MK) = 49 (they play Bristol and MK in their next two which extends things)
Bristol win 3 = 49
Huddersfield win 1 draw 1 = 49
Brentford win 1 = 49
Forest win 1 = 49
Blackburn win 1 = 49
Leeds win 1 = 50

If MK can still get to 58, that puts our Magic Number at 11, right?

Any combination of MK dropping and us gaining 11 points, assuming Charlton don't overhaul both of us (9 points vs them) and we become mathematically safe.

[Z175]

total joke from the BBC!

That said - it won't take much now.