Rival Watch

[Ascotexgunner]

Barnsley are most likely to stay up I reckon. Been in this situation a good few times and used to playing “ugly” and fighting. Reading will have big problems when they go to Oakwell in 3 weeks time.

Think some bloke on the radio said that by April 2nd the results should tell us whether we are staying up.
Looking at the logic he provided, seemed about right.

[Zip]

Barnsley are most likely to stay up I reckon. Been in this situation a good few times and used to playing “ugly” and fighting. Reading will have big problems when they go to Oakwell in 3 weeks time.

Think some bloke on the radio said that by April 2nd the results should tell us whether we are staying up.
Looking at the logic he provided, seemed about right.

We have two homes games on 5th and 9th April v Stoke and Cardiff. Both are winnable. So after 2nd April there will still be a lot to play for.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

Even though we don't seem to display much fight, why don't people count on our survival experience? Last season aside, every other season we were involved in a battle at the bottom. Bowen dragged us out of it into mid table early on granted with some good patches of form, but other than that, we've been in a relegation battle for the other 3 season (including this one) and haven't gone down in any of them. Stam/Clement, we survived, Clement/Gomes, we survived, so I'm pretty confident we can do that now.

We've got experienced players who have been in this situation before, it's hardly a shock to the system. Nothing is a guarantee or anything and we could still very easily go down but, we are the team out of the 4 who have the most experience to count on in this situation. Derby and Barnsley have only really experienced it once in recent years. Granted they've got experience, so do we.

[Hound]

We’ve an experienced and fully fit squad basically, along with a still healthy points advantage on Barnsley and Derby

It’d be a pretty major fcuk up still for us to go down. Obvs quite plausible it will happen but it’d still be pretty shocking management if it does

[AthleticoSpizz]

Well yes

[Zip]

Not many of the current squad have been involved in the previous relegation battles at the club.
The one positive is that we do have players who can score goals out of nothing. That might just be enough to get us over the line.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

Not many of the current squad have been involved in the previous relegation battles at the club.
The one positive is that we do have players who can score goals out of nothing. That might just be enough to get us over the line.

Not sure I totally agree. Yiadom and Morrison have been involved in a couple, McIntyre less so but was breaking through under Gomes, Rino has in midfield, likewise Swift and Ejaria, as well as Joao and Meite. That's still a fair number of players over the last 3/4 years in the Championship for us who have.

There have obviously been a lot of changes but we've got out of it before, we can do it again for sure. It's still very much in our hands anyway.

[Mr Angry]

Of course it is in our hands; we match, or do slightly worse, than any of the 3 teams below us (as has been happening snce before Christmas) and we survive.

When we play at home, I would like to see Pince show a bit more adventure and so start with Meite and Joao; we have the attacking resources so lets use them.

[Snowflake Royal]

Not many of the current squad have been involved in the previous relegation battles at the club.
The one positive is that we do have players who can score goals out of nothing. That might just be enough to get us over the line.

Not sure I totally agree. Yiadom and Morrison have been involved in a couple, McIntyre less so but was breaking through under Gomes, Rino has in midfield, likewise Swift and Ejaria, as well as Joao and Meite. That's still a fair number of players over the last 3/4 years in the Championship for us who have.

There have obviously been a lot of changes but we've got out of it before, we can do it again for sure. It's still very much in our hands anyway.

We weren't in a relegation fight under Bowen. We were comfortably mid-table and finished badly, still ending up 14th.

Joao doesn't have the experience, not that it matters in his case.... he's absolute quality. The others, yeah.

But then that's it. Most of them are players who shouldn't have been involved in relegation fights. But were because they simply don't perform.

[Once upon a time .]

So what you’re saying is that we’ve got players that have been bad enough to be down the bottom for years !

[Snowflake Royal]

So what you’re saying is that we’ve got players that have been bad enough to be down the bottom for years !

No, I'm saying if we had tried to forge them into an actual TEAM the players we have are good enough for the top half, comfortably. But we haven’t. Instead we've built a team of disjointed disorganised quality individuals, who have consistently failed.

And lets face it, our survivals in 17/18 and 18/19 (think those are the right seasons) were more down to being saved by worse teams, than our team saving themselves.

This season is looking the same. If we survive it's likely to be close to a record low to do so.

[Zip]

Of course it is in our hands; we match, or do slightly worse, than any of the 3 teams below us (as has been happening snce before Christmas) and we survive.

When we play at home, I would like to see Pince show a bit more adventure and so start with Meite and Joao; we have the attacking resources so lets use them.

What? Derby were twenty points behind us at the start of December. They have massively closed the gap on us. Barnsley and Posh haven’t.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

Not many of the current squad have been involved in the previous relegation battles at the club.
The one positive is that we do have players who can score goals out of nothing. That might just be enough to get us over the line.

Not sure I totally agree. Yiadom and Morrison have been involved in a couple, McIntyre less so but was breaking through under Gomes, Rino has in midfield, likewise Swift and Ejaria, as well as Joao and Meite. That's still a fair number of players over the last 3/4 years in the Championship for us who have.

There have obviously been a lot of changes but we've got out of it before, we can do it again for sure. It's still very much in our hands anyway.

We weren't in a relegation fight under Bowen. We were comfortably mid-table and finished badly, still ending up 14th.

Joao doesn't have the experience, not that it matters in his case.... he's absolute quality. The others, yeah.

But then that's it. Most of them are players who shouldn't have been involved in relegation fights. But were because they simply don't perform.

True with Bowen but my point was we were at the bottom at a stage during his time, granted it wasn't near the same situation as now.

But that's it really, it's just an underperforming squad. Some other players have been involved in relegation fights in their careers previously though, so it's hardly like we have no experience to count on elsewhere. Nyland, Morrison, Dann, Drinkwater, Hoilett etc. Some were obviously a few seasons back though. But there *should* be enough quality and experience to get us over the line.

[Stranded]

Of course it is in our hands; we match, or do slightly worse, than any of the 3 teams below us (as has been happening snce before Christmas) and we survive.

When we play at home, I would like to see Pince show a bit more adventure and so start with Meite and Joao; we have the attacking resources so lets use them.

What? Derby were twenty points behind us at the start of December. They have massively closed the gap on us. Barnsley and Posh haven’t.

They have, mainly due to an excellent run in Dec/Jan where they picked up 14pts from 8 game whilst we were picking up none. Since the end of Jan, they have only picked up 3 more points in us having played one more game. If that continues they will finish 2 points behind us.

They are currently on a run of 3 pts from the last 15 - that coming against Barnsley. Derby also have the toughest run in, in terms of opposition's poistion to come and also 9 games left as opposed to 10 for everyone else. They have also picked up 1 point from the last 21 on the road (I'll let you guess where that was).

At this point, absolutely nothing points to Derby finishing above us. Their only chance is to win 4 or 5 of their home games - which their home form suggests they could.

They have Coventry, Preston, Fulham, Bristol City & Cardiff at home. So one going for the title, one in the play-off race and 3 with nothing to play for. All of this still depends on us continuing to let teams beat us - we've shown even in this wretched run that we can pull a couple of wins out of the hat so it will still be tough for them.

As much as people may not want it to be, we still control this relegation battle as we have a 4 point gap and play our nearest challenger.

We have the games to get us out of the hole - look at our home games:

Blackburn - not scored away this year (yes we know what will happen)
Stoke - Only won 2 in 12
Cardiff - Nothing to play for - away form average, 2 wins in last 8
Swansea - got that jinx off our back in November, nothing to play for and currently at 1 win in 8 on the road
WBA - Over the past 12 games, in relegation form - 1 win in 8 on the road.

Now naturally, we need to raise our game above the level of Westwood Wanderers U8 B team but if you were to hand pick a selection of opponents to play at home on the run in - you'd probably pick that lot, or something close.

Away is trickier with Bournemouth, Sheff Utd and Luton, where you expect 0 points but we still have to play the team directly below and above us on the road - so we have a chance of a result in both of those - even 2 draws would be helpful.

A record of W3 D2 L5 is doable and gets us to 40 - if we do that:

Barnsley would need 15 points from 10, so W5 L5 or W4 D3 L3.
Derby would need 16 from 9 - W5 D1 L3 or W4 D4 L1
Peterboro would need 17 from 10 - W5 D2 L3 or W4 D5 L1

All very tough and well above what they've done - whereas our run is only 1 win and 1 draw more than we managed in the last 10.

It is in our hands - we will likely through that away but even if we lose at Barnsley it is not the end of the world but things can change quickly - although to date, they just haven't.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

It is our home games where we can take advantage, we've been disappointing recently and I don't expect that to change tomorrow either, but that can happen in this situation. After tomorrow, 3 of our next 4 are at home and our away game is Barnsley. We can certainlt target those 4 games and think we can get a couple of wins and a draw from them and suddenly the gap could increase. If we can just have a 2/3 game spell like Peterborough, Preston and Birmingham, then we should be able to steer further clear.

[South Coast Royal]

Of course it is in our hands; we match, or do slightly worse, than any of the 3 teams below us (as has been happening snce before Christmas) and we survive.

When we play at home, I would like to see Pince show a bit more adventure and so start with Meite and Joao; we have the attacking resources so lets use them.

What? Derby were twenty points behind us at the start of December. They have massively closed the gap on us. Barnsley and Posh haven’t.

They have, mainly due to an excellent run in Dec/Jan where they picked up 14pts from 8 game whilst we were picking up none. Since the end of Jan, they have only picked up 3 more points in us having played one more game. If that continues they will finish 2 points behind us.

They are currently on a run of 3 pts from the last 15 - that coming against Barnsley. Derby also have the toughest run in, in terms of opposition's poistion to come and also 9 games left as opposed to 10 for everyone else. They have also picked up 1 point from the last 21 on the road (I'll let you guess where that was).

At this point, absolutely nothing points to Derby finishing above us. Their only chance is to win 4 or 5 of their home games - which their home form suggests they could.

They have Coventry, Preston, Fulham, Bristol City & Cardiff at home. So one going for the title, one in the play-off race and 3 with nothing to play for. All of this still depends on us continuing to let teams beat us - we've shown even in this wretched run that we can pull a couple of wins out of the hat so it will still be tough for them.

As much as people may not want it to be, we still control this relegation battle as we have a 4 point gap and play our nearest challenger.

We have the games to get us out of the hole - look at our home games:

Blackburn - not scored away this year (yes we know what will happen)
Stoke - Only won 2 in 12
Cardiff - Nothing to play for - away form average, 2 wins in last 8
Swansea - got that jinx off our back in November, nothing to play for and currently at 1 win in 8 on the road
WBA - Over the past 12 games, in relegation form - 1 win in 8 on the road.

Now naturally, we need to raise our game above the level of Westwood Wanderers U8 B team but if you were to hand pick a selection of opponents to play at home on the run in - you'd probably pick that lot, or something close.

Away is trickier with Bournemouth, Sheff Utd and Luton, where you expect 0 points but we still have to play the team directly below and above us on the road - so we have a chance of a result in both of those - even 2 draws would be helpful.

A record of W3 D2 L5 is doable and gets us to 40 - if we do that:

Barnsley would need 15 points from 10, so W5 L5 or W4 D3 L3.
Derby would need 16 from 9 - W5 D1 L3 or W4 D4 L1
Peterboro would need 17 from 10 - W5 D2 L3 or W4 D5 L1

All very tough and well above what they've done - whereas our run is only 1 win and 1 draw more than we managed in the last 10.

It is in our hands - we will likely through that away but even if we lose at Barnsley it is not the end of the world but things can change quickly - although to date, they just haven't.

Looking at those 5 home games I wish I could share your optimism.
I see danger in all of those teams but that sums up the difference between you and me-as far as RFC is concerned I am generally a pessimist whereas (until recent weeks) you are forever full of optimism.

Your summary of those figures is that all 5 are in poor form but even to beat those we will have to improve markedly and they must not improve at all which is quite some leap of faith.

I really don't like this being in a relegation scrap, especially with a squad of players that look as though they don't want to scrap apart from Yiadom who can scrap but is a limited footballer.

[Stranded]

It is our home games where we can take advantage, we've been disappointing recently and I don't expect that to change tomorrow either, but that can happen in this situation. After tomorrow, 3 of our next 4 are at home and our away game is Barnsley. We can certainlt target those 4 games and think we can get a couple of wins and a draw from them and suddenly the gap could increase. If we can just have a 2/3 game spell like Peterborough, Preston and Birmingham, then we should be able to steer further clear.

Exactly, that is all it takes at the moment - the run of Blackburn, Barnsley, Stoke, Cardiff will be the one that makes or breaks our season.

You can make a argument for how we can win every single one of those - of course we won't but if we can find 7 points out of that run then will likely have a slightly bigger cushion over the bottom 3 - though Barnsley will have a game in hand again (v Blackpool, 26th April).

[Zip]

Trust me Stranded. I very much want this to be in our own hands. I’m just very wary of what many of you are saying on here. One win makes a huge difference. If we get it suddenly a gap of 7/8 points could appear and that gives us real breathing space. Conversely if Barnsley win v Brizzle tomorrow and we lose the gap is just one point.

My biggest concern is that our form is dreadful in 2022. We have no momentum. We capitulate. I see the early April games as pivotal. Three big games in a week away v Barnsley followed by two home games v Stoke and Cardiff. All three are winnable and those are the games we need to pick up a good number of points from.
If we can win 6/7 points from those three then I think we will end up ok.

We need 40 points imo.

[Stranded]

What? Derby were twenty points behind us at the start of December. They have massively closed the gap on us. Barnsley and Posh haven’t.

They have, mainly due to an excellent run in Dec/Jan where they picked up 14pts from 8 game whilst we were picking up none. Since the end of Jan, they have only picked up 3 more points in us having played one more game. If that continues they will finish 2 points behind us.

They are currently on a run of 3 pts from the last 15 - that coming against Barnsley. Derby also have the toughest run in, in terms of opposition's poistion to come and also 9 games left as opposed to 10 for everyone else. They have also picked up 1 point from the last 21 on the road (I'll let you guess where that was).

At this point, absolutely nothing points to Derby finishing above us. Their only chance is to win 4 or 5 of their home games - which their home form suggests they could.

They have Coventry, Preston, Fulham, Bristol City & Cardiff at home. So one going for the title, one in the play-off race and 3 with nothing to play for. All of this still depends on us continuing to let teams beat us - we've shown even in this wretched run that we can pull a couple of wins out of the hat so it will still be tough for them.

As much as people may not want it to be, we still control this relegation battle as we have a 4 point gap and play our nearest challenger.

We have the games to get us out of the hole - look at our home games:

Blackburn - not scored away this year (yes we know what will happen)
Stoke - Only won 2 in 12
Cardiff - Nothing to play for - away form average, 2 wins in last 8
Swansea - got that jinx off our back in November, nothing to play for and currently at 1 win in 8 on the road
WBA - Over the past 12 games, in relegation form - 1 win in 8 on the road.

Now naturally, we need to raise our game above the level of Westwood Wanderers U8 B team but if you were to hand pick a selection of opponents to play at home on the run in - you'd probably pick that lot, or something close.

Away is trickier with Bournemouth, Sheff Utd and Luton, where you expect 0 points but we still have to play the team directly below and above us on the road - so we have a chance of a result in both of those - even 2 draws would be helpful.

A record of W3 D2 L5 is doable and gets us to 40 - if we do that:

Barnsley would need 15 points from 10, so W5 L5 or W4 D3 L3.
Derby would need 16 from 9 - W5 D1 L3 or W4 D4 L1
Peterboro would need 17 from 10 - W5 D2 L3 or W4 D5 L1

All very tough and well above what they've done - whereas our run is only 1 win and 1 draw more than we managed in the last 10.

It is in our hands - we will likely through that away but even if we lose at Barnsley it is not the end of the world but things can change quickly - although to date, they just haven't.

Looking at those 5 home games I wish I could share your optimism.
I see danger in all of those teams but that sums up the difference between you and me-as far as RFC is concerned I am generally a pessimist whereas (until recent weeks) you are forever full of optimism.

Your summary of those figures is that all 5 are in poor form but even to beat those we will have to improve markedly and they must not improve at all which is quite some leap of faith.

I really don't like this being in a relegation scrap, especially with a squad of players that look as though they don't want to scrap apart from Yiadom who can scrap but is a limited footballer.

Oh I've literally said in that post that we have to markedly improve and apologise humbly to the Westwood Wanderers U8s for bringing them in to this.

My only point was, you have to play someone in the run in and you are right, they all have their dangers but on current form and even given how bad we are - I'm struggling to pick 5 better teams to have left at home. I'm not even being optimistic but bar maybe swapping Blackburn out purely based on league position rather than their lack of goals - it is a very friendly run-in.

Whether we can take advantage of it is a totally separate question and this squad, despite individual talent, do not fill you with confidence that they can.

Knowing them, they'll probably find a way to win tomorrow, then go on another run of defeats.

[Stranded]

Trust me Stranded. I very much want this to be in our own hands. I’m just very wary of what many of you are saying on here. One win makes a huge difference. If we get it suddenly a gap of 7/8 points could appear and that gives us real breathing space. Conversely if Barnsley win v Brizzle tomorrow and we lose the gap is just one point.

My biggest concern is that our form is dreadful in 2022. We have no momentum. We capitulate. I see the early April games as pivotal. Three big games in a week away v Barnsley followed by two home games v Stoke and Cardiff. All three are winnable and those are the games we need to pick up a good number of points from.
If we can win 6/7 points from those three then I think we will end up ok.

We need 40 points imo.

I know you do, and apologies here but I don't quite thing you get that it is in our hands even if Barnsley win and we lose tomorrow (though it would also then be in theirs).

We have absolutely no momentum and haven't had all year, yet and this is a fact - we are in a better position in terms of a relegation battle than we were on January 1st. The gap to the bottom 3 is double what it was.

The race has only been out of hands for the time between the final whistle v Peterborough and the final whistle v Preston.

We are currently the only team in the race that has it's fate in our own hands - eveyone else needs us to lose and pick up points.

My confidence we will maintain it is low but it is higher than if we were relying on favours as the bottom 3 currently are.