BrogueStrandedstealthpapes It does feel that the biggest driver is the division we’re in, then perceived standing within the league then actual standing within the league.
It’s mildly interesting that there’s a bump on actual promotion campaigns vs near misses (00-01 vs 01-02 where the gap is 1 position) but also 10-11 vs 11-12 vs 16-17.
Relegation drops fans but so does hanging around a division.
Most fans who are staying away will be blissfully unaware of how well the team is/isn't playing and probably only mildly aware of the league position - why? because they are floating fans - our hardcore is probably around what we are seeing now. The key difference is people are less likely to spend any spare money on L1 football - put simply, a more casual Reading fan is going to be less enticed to get off the sofa to go and watch us play say Burton than West Brom.
Not disagreeing with you, i think you’re right, that the numbers we are getting through the gate are probably our hardcore number. What i do find surprising is that number is so low. We are at 1998 levels of support. in the last 28 years we achieved premier league football for three years an FA cup semi final at Wembley and multiple play off campaigns in the second tier of football. That's a whole generation of stable sustained success for a club that's historically been a 3rd tier team. In that time the town its self has grown immeasurably the population has boomed. The recent years of success attracted more fans, and they will have had children who possible even being having children themselves who will go to the games and become lifelong Reading FC fans. I just find it really odd that basically our core fan base hasn't increased in 30 years despite a generation or 2 of unpresented success when compared to our history.
Yes the population has boomed but mostly with people who work in Reading or London but have no real connection to the town and probably support other clubs already from either their home town or whoever their dad/grandad supported. Some of those may well have gone to games when the side was doing well because their "first team" is too far away to go to regularly and they can get a decent football fix but now, they aren't too fussed with watching 3rd Tier football. Their kids, who may well have been born in Reading may have a stronger connection and now be attending without Mum or Dad.
Meanwhile, a not insignificant number of people from Reading - including people like myself - who went regularly or were STs in the late 90s/00s have moved away and now either don't go at all or get to a handful of games a year. As a result, the hardcore has stayed around 10k(ish) because the numbers of new dedicated fans has pretty much kept up with the numbers of those who can no longer attend.
