BFTG Wednesday (A)

[Hound]

So Gomes has recruited better.

certainly the recruitment since the appointment of Gomes has been better imo. I'd be little surprised if it was him who identified (all) the players

[Snowball]

As an aside, I seem to remember that conventional wisdom when Gomes signed was that his teams were shit defensively.

Good point!

[Hendo]

For everyone saying a point per game is relegation form, over an entire season, 46 points keeps you up for 3 out of the last 5 seasons.

Admittedly a point per game from now until the end of the season will be far too close for comfort. But the stats are the same as the above* 41 points keeps you up 3 out of the last 5 seasons.

*with a non-horrific goal difference.

[Snowball]

Wouldn’t say I’m massively impressed with what Gomes has achieved so far, but relatively optimistic for the rest of the season

I am

I don't count the first two games stats-wise, but we went 80 minutes without conceding at Millwall (with 10 men, then 9) and followed that with a 0-0 away to QPR who were then on the up.

The reverse against Swansea was horrible but it was down, mainly, to Swansea's ruthlessness in front of goal. We had twice as many shots as Swansea (16-8) and the same number on target (5-5). Scoring 4 from 5 on target is amazing.

But since then?

The performance at Manchester United in the cup was highly creditable. Man U beat us in the middle of a run of wins and are now W9 D1 and have made the top 4 of the Prem.

Then


2-0 Forest
1-2 Derby Away
1-1 Bolton Away
0-0 Villa
0-0 Wednesday Away

Three clean sheets and a 90th minute concession out of five games. How many expected us to get points at Derby or Wednesday? A large percentage expected a draw or defeat at home to free-scoring Villa, who in their next game drew 3-3 against Sheffield United.

Small sample (of course) but three clean sheets (almost four) in five games is hardly a fluke. Had we kept that one goal out I think the verdict would be overwhelmingly more favourable towards Gomes.

Barring catastrophic injuries I can only see us slowly climbing the table. We look miles better going forward and the goals will come


This was the state of the table after the Millwall game


22 Rotherham
21 Bolton
19 Reading
15 Ipswich


30 05 11 14 28 48 -20 26 Rotherham
30 05 10 15 32 44 -12 25 Reading
30 05 08 17 19 45 -26 23 Bolton
30 03 09 18 23 51 -28 18 Ipswich

In seven games since Millwall we have gained

four points on Bolton,
three points on Ipswich,
two points on Rotherham

We have 2 more seven game batches plus 1 game. Should we manage the same return we would finish the season 13 points clear of Ipswich, 10 points clear of Bolton, and 3 clear of Rotherham. That is based on a small sample size, of course, but the clean sheets, better play, quality striker, excellent keeper, very good new centre half, all augur well, suggesting we will INCREASE our ppg.

The big danger-point is the home game versus Rotherham. Based on how I think things will go from here to the end of the season, I would take a draw at home to Rotherham (because I think we will gain about 4 points on them anyway). if we do beat them (and I actually think we will) then there is every chance we could be 4-5-6 points clear of the bottom three of Ipswich, Bolton, Rotherham by season's end. That is WITHOUT improvement on the last seven games. I think we will continue to improve.

The big worry is a stupid defeat at home to Rotherham. If that was this Wednesday, we'd be 4 points down with 14 games to go and have suffered a big dent in morale while bolstering Rotherham's.

I think we will exceed 1.2 ppg for the rest of the season and be safe with 1-2-3 games to go.

[Snowball]

Just checked the relegation odds

You can now get evens for Reading with bookies expecting Rotherham, Bolton, Ipswich to be the three for League 1

Jeez, how much could turn on Feb 23rd?

[From Despair To Where?]

So Gomes has recruited better.

certainly the recruitment since the appointment of Gomes has been better imo. I'd be little surprised if it was him who identified (all) the players

But isn't that how a scouting network works? Manager identifies a need, scouts identify the individuals that fulfil the need.

Whilst the jury may be out on a couple, none have bombed as yet.

[Hendo]

So Gomes has recruited better.

certainly the recruitment since the appointment of Gomes has been better imo. I'd be little surprised if it was him who identified (all) the players

But isn't that how a scouting network works? Manager identifies a need, scouts identify the individuals that fulfil the need.

Whilst the jury may be out on a couple, none have bombed as yet.

Added to the fact we have previously looked at Baker and Nelson, quicker to just go back in the files of highly recommended players.

[Hound]

So Gomes has recruited better.

certainly the recruitment since the appointment of Gomes has been better imo. I'd be little surprised if it was him who identified (all) the players

But isn't that how a scouting network works? Manager identifies a need, scouts identify the individuals that fulfil the need.

Whilst the jury may be out on a couple, none have bombed as yet.

no, I'm happy with them all so far. Good signings

Yeah sure that is how it works. Semantics really, but think we can probably agree the transfer window was a good one. I'm trying to judge Gomes more on what I've seen on the pitch though - and so far I'm fairly neutral on it. Some good signs, some failings that haven't been addressed

[Victor Meldrew]

As this has turned into another "how many points do we need?" topic can I add my take.
It looks as though we really need to do our stuff within the next month as after that we have:-
Leeds
Stoke
Preston
Hull
Norwich
Brentford
Bristol City
WBA
Middlesboro
Birmingham

That strikes me as a very difficult run-in but of course nobody can predict when we or these teams will be in form.
As of now a point per game from that lot requires Snowballesque optimism and the assumption that we will one day start scoring goals as our defence isn't that good that we can rely on never conceding.

Those heady days of chasing promotion seem so far away when we are concerning ourselves over the results of Rotherham, a side that were relegated not so long ago from this division with one of the lowest points tally ever.

I do think that we will just about survive as we will get the odd unexpected win and unexpected loss but an average of 1.5 gpg is better than 1-let's just hope that Ipswich and Bolton don't suddenly find some form as they really are not that far behind.

[3points]

The big unknown for me in the last 6-8 games of the season is where the opposition are relative to play-offs, relegation and mid table obscurity. You'd hope that of the list 3-4 will be in flip-flop holiday mode , especially Birmingham on the last day of the season, or at least secure in the play-offs when we play them (eg Boro).

But it's a tricky run in, though Rotherham's looks equally challenging. We will only have ourselves to blame if we go down.

[3points]

The big unknown for me in the last 6-8 games of the season is where the opposition are relative to play-offs, relegation and mid table obscurity. You'd hope that of the list 3-4 will be in flip-flop holiday mode , especially Birmingham on the last day of the season, or at least secure in the play-offs when we play them (eg Boro).

But it's a tricky run in, though Rotherham's looks equally challenging. We will only have ourselves to blame if we go down.

Just looked at Rotherham's last three opponents are the same as ours! That's a bit spooky

[TiagoIlori]

Can only be a matter of time until we turn those draws into wins. Ipswich look down and out, Bolton very close to joining them then there’s us and Rotherham, with Millwall and Wigan losing their ground on us as we speak. Think it might be too little too late now though, not showing any signs of improvement attacking wise that suggest we can turn those draws into wins however...

You sound confused.

Thinking two different things at once, the glass half full of me says results will come the other glass half empty of me fears it’s too late

[Hound]

definitely not too late

If we are correct in thinking Ipswich and Bolton are likely down (obvs a big assumption but nothing to suggest otherwise), then its a straight shoot out between us and Rotherham, No real excuse to lose that one looking at the comparative squads etc

[Denver Royal]

I’ll not be worrying about PPG just now.

Me neither, and those preoccupied with it is because of 'other' reasons.
Bottom line right now is to stay up, regardless of how many points we accomplish it with.
For example, 15 games left. Even if we draw them all (ha, 0-0's?), it would give us 41 points. (Or combo of wins, draws, losses that gets us 15 points). With our goal difference, not convinced Rovrum will get to 42 points with their run-in.
Yes, would obv much prefer if we stayed up having won all 15 games, but still.
#1 priority, stay up, end of. Then work on offence, personnel, etc, over the Summer.

[URZZZZ]

#1 priority, stay up, end of. Then work on offence, personnel, etc, over the Summer.[/quote]

That's a big point, if we do manage to stay up, which I think we will, this summer will be so important assuming Gomes stays. I know we say this every window but the last two summers have been so poor in terms of transfer dealings that we're now heavily paying the price and it's so important to get it right next time

Suddenly our squad will look pretty small again if you take away the six loan players we have this summer, assuming Mannone, Meyler and co still have no future

[Denver Royal]

#1 priority, stay up, end of. Then work on offence, personnel, etc, over the Summer.

That's a big point, if we do manage to stay up, which I think we will, this summer will be so important assuming Gomes stays. I know we say this every window but the last two summers have been so poor in terms of transfer dealings that we're now heavily paying the price and it's so important to get it right next time
Suddenly our squad will look pretty small again if you take away the six loan players we have this summer, assuming Mannone, Meyler and co still have no future

Yep, we certainly won't be out of the woods by any means. Its going to be a crucial window, no doubt. Trying to recover from the mistakes of past windows, etc.

[Snowflake Royal]

I’ll not be worrying about PPG just now.

Me neither, and those preoccupied with it is because of 'other' reasons.
Bottom line right now is to stay up, regardless of how many points we accomplish it with.
For example, 15 games left. Even if we draw them all (ha, 0-0's?), it would give us 41 points. (Or combo of wins, draws, losses that gets us 15 points). With our goal difference, not convinced Rovrum will get to 42 points with their run-in.
Yes, would obv much prefer if we stayed up having won all 15 games, but still.
#1 priority, stay up, end of. Then work on offence, personnel, etc, over the Summer.

I'm getting tired of your constant childish insinuations.

The best way of judging whether we're likely to stay up is how many points we're picking up. Not only that, but how you finish the season is supposed to be a strong indication of how you will perform the following year. So limping to safety thanks to others failure is a good sign of being in the same place this time next year.

Something I would have thought none of us want.

[windermereROYAL]

#1 priority, stay up, end of. Then work on offence, personnel, etc, over the Summer.

That's a big point, if we do manage to stay up, which I think we will, this summer will be so important assuming Gomes stays. I know we say this every window but the last two summers have been so poor in terms of transfer dealings that we're now heavily paying the price and it's so important to get it right next time
Suddenly our squad will look pretty small again if you take away the six loan players we have this summer, assuming Mannone, Meyler and co still have no future

Yep, its going to be an crucial window, no doubt. Trying to recover from past mistakes, etc.

This will be the first summer without Gourley in 3 years, I`m sure that might make a difference.

[URZZZZ]

#1 priority, stay up, end of. Then work on offence, personnel, etc, over the Summer.

That's a big point, if we do manage to stay up, which I think we will, this summer will be so important assuming Gomes stays. I know we say this every window but the last two summers have been so poor in terms of transfer dealings that we're now heavily paying the price and it's so important to get it right next time
Suddenly our squad will look pretty small again if you take away the six loan players we have this summer, assuming Mannone, Meyler and co still have no future

Yep, its going to be an crucial window, no doubt. Trying to recover from past mistakes, etc.

This will be the first summer without Gourley in 3 years, I`m sure that might make a difference.

Was Gourlay there in Stam's first season? For me, that was the best window we've had in years, we may have had some flops but we brought in five or six quality players IMO

[Denver Royal]

I’ll not be worrying about PPG just now.

Me neither, and those preoccupied with it is because of 'other' reasons.
Bottom line right now is to stay up, regardless of how many points we accomplish it with.
For example, 15 games left. Even if we draw them all (ha, 0-0's?), it would give us 41 points. (Or combo of wins, draws, losses that gets us 15 points). With our goal difference, not convinced Rovrum will get to 42 points with their run-in.
Yes, would obv much prefer if we stayed up having won all 15 games, but still.
#1 priority, stay up, end of. Then work on offence, personnel, etc, over the Summer.

I'm getting tired of your constant childish insinuations.
The best way of judging whether we're likely to stay up is how many points we're picking up. Not only that, but how you finish the season is supposed to be a strong indication of how you will perform the following year. So limping to safety thanks to others failure is a good sign of being in the same place this time next year.
Something I would have thought none of us want.

I wouldn't want it either. I said in my post what I'd much rather prefer. It goes without saying, I'd much prefer to finish with a flourish, win our remaining games, etc. I made that clear.